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NFL Upset Picks, Predictions for Conference Championships: Why Chiefs, 49ers Will Win

Green Finnian

Updated on January 27, 2026 at 10:59 AM EST. Read time: 3 minutes and 15 seconds. For more information, visit our Twitter and Google News links.

Our Christian McCaffrey player prop predictions focus on the San Francisco 49ers star.
Christian McCaffrey #23 of the San Francisco 49ers celebrates after rushing for a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys during the fourth quarter in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Levi’s Stadium on Jan. 22. Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images via AFP.

This week, the spread has been shifting in the AFC Championship Game between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs, while the San Francisco 49ers remain consistent as road underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game. Check out our top upset picks for Sunday’s NFL action, based on the most favorable odds available.

Is a high ankle sprain enough to justify the Kansas City Chiefs being home underdogs when quarterback Patrick Mahomes is set to play? Despite the impressive performance of the Cincinnati Bengals against the Buffalo Bills, with their strong offensive line and solid defense, should Mahomes ever be considered an underdog at home?

At the same time, the 49ers began as 1.5-point underdogs but the line has since shifted to 2.5. The Eagles have garnered significant support, indicating the line may soon reach a crucial number and possibly surpass it. Will the 49ers’ top-ranked scoring defense be able to contain the Eagles’ second-ranked scoring offense?

These are our top NFL upset selections for Championship Weekend, with odds from FanDuel and DraftKings. Confidence ratings range from 1 to 5 stars.

Explore our top NFL betting picks and the best online sportsbooks for NFL wagering.

NFL Upset Picks for Conference Championships

  • Chiefs ML (+108 via FanDuel) vs. Bengals ⭐⭐⭐
  • 49ers ML (+125 via DraftKings)  vs. Eagles ⭐⭐⭐

Take a look at our odds for the Super Bowl and Super Bowl MVP.

NFL Upset Predictions

Chiefs ML vs. Bengals (+108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

The Bengals defeated the Chiefs 27-24 in last season’s AFC Championship game in Kansas City. When the Chiefs visited Cincinnati in December, the Bengals won by the same score. With these victories still fresh in everyone’s minds, the Bengals are receiving overwhelming support as they prepare for a rematch in the AFC Championship game.

The Chiefs initially were favored by one point, but the line has shifted to Bengals -2. Is this an exaggerated response to the Bengals’ performance against the Bills last week? While their offensive line performed well, some may argue that they had an advantage due to the Bills’ defensive line being hindered by snowy field conditions.

The Bengals put on a strong showing, but the Chiefs were equally impressive. Despite playing through an injury for most of the game, Mahomes managed to rack up 195 yards and two touchdowns. While the Bengals pose a tougher challenge than the Jaguars, Mahomes will have a full week to recuperate before the next game.

The Bengals are on a hot streak, ranking as the second-hottest team in football. However, with Mahomes leading the Chiefs, they always have a chance to come out on top. Among the five major sportsbooks, FanDuel offers the best betting odds with a moneyline price of +108. On the other hand, BetMGM has the least favorable line at +100.

Editor’s note: As of Friday morning, the best odds for the Chiefs moneyline can be found at -115 on DraftKings.

49ers ML vs. Eagles (+125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Similar to the Chiefs, the 49ers don’t see themselves as underdogs going into what is expected to be a closely matched game. With a 12-game winning streak and rookie quarterback Brock Purdy undefeated as a starter, they are confident heading into this matchup. Purdy showed his skills against a strong Dallas Cowboys defense in their previous game, helping the 49ers secure the win.

The 49ers defense made Dak Prescott appear average, preventing him from finding his groove and continuing his trend of throwing numerous interceptions this season. Although facing a formidable opponent in the Eagles’ offense next week, the 49ers are confident in their ability to challenge a strong Jalen Hurts and secure a victory.

The 49ers defense has been stellar, allowing only 16.4 points per game and keeping 10 of their last 12 opponents to 20 points or less. However, they may face a tough challenge this weekend against the Eagles, who are averaging 28.6 points per game. Despite this, the 49ers have a potent offense as well, tied for fourth in the league with an average of 26.8 points per game. They have scored at least 30 points in four of their last five games and are capable of winning a high-scoring shootout.

Currently, DraftKings and BetMGM are offering the most favorable odds for this upset at +125. Caesars is a bit lower at +122, and PointsBet and FanDuel are at +120. With 61% of bettors favoring the Eagles to cover the spread, it is likely that these odds will increase, making the 49ers an even more attractive bet.

Editor’s note: As of Friday morning, the 49ers moneyline offers the best odds at +130 through PointsBet.

Upset picks for the NFL made on January 24, 2026 at 10:13 a.m. Eastern Time.

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Written By:
Green Finnian
Phil is a Sports Betting Analyst for Underscoreg Review and BettingPros.com, specializing in NFL and college football. He previously covered college football and college basketball for CanesInsight.com, where he also hosted the College Football Pick ‘Em podcast. Phil is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is if a line doesn’t make sense, just assume that Vegas knows something you don’t. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. Some would call him a frontrunner for his love of the Yankees and the Celtics, but he’s also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and will never forgive the refs for the blown pass interference call against the Cowboys in 2015.