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Jaguars vs. Chiefs Player Prop Picks, Predictions: Best Bets to Begin Divisional Round

Allen Byron

Updated as of January 21, 2026 at 10:35 AM EST. Read time: 3 minutes and 13 seconds. Twitter and Google News links included.

Wide receiver Kadarius Toney of the Kansas City Chiefs reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Wide receiver Kadarius Toney of the Kansas City Chiefs reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Getty Images via AFP.

The Jacksonville Jaguars-Kansas City Chiefs game is expected to have the highest Over/Under total of the Divisional Round games this weekend, with two star quarterbacks at the helm. As such, we have selected our top player prop picks for the high-scoring showdown based on the best NFL odds available.

The Jaguars became the second team in NFL history to make the playoffs after starting 3-7 or worse, as well as the second team to win a division title after having the worst record in the league the previous season. Therefore, it was fitting that Jacksonville accomplished the third-largest comeback in NFL playoff history, overcoming a 27-point deficit to defeat the Chargers in the wild-card round.

The Jaguars are heading back to Arrowhead for the second time this season after suffering a 27-17 loss to the Chiefs in Week 10. This time, they face the challenge of defeating Kansas City coming off a bye week, with Andy Reid’s teams boasting an impressive 28-5 record after a bye week in his coaching career, including playoffs.

Below are our top player prop picks for the Jaguars vs. Chiefs Divisional Round, with odds from PointsBet, FanDuel, and BetMGM. Confidence levels are rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

Explore our selections for the Jaguars vs. Chiefs matchup, including a same game parlay option, as well as prop picks for Trevor Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes.

Player Prop Picks for Jaguars vs. Chiefs

  • Patrick Mahomes Under 2.5 passing touchdowns (-115 via PointsBet)
  • Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-110 via FanDuel)
  • Kadarius Toney to score the first touchdown (+1400 via BetMGM)

Take a look at our analysis of the Jaguars vs Chiefs odds and NFL Divisional Round odds and betting lines.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds

Take a look at our Super Bowl betting odds and odds for Super Bowl MVP.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Player Prop Picks

Patrick Mahomes Under 2.5 passing touchdowns (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Patrick Mahomes is almost certain to win the MVP award, having thrown for a league-high 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns this season (six more than any other quarterback). Despite his impressive performance of 331 yards and four touchdowns against the Jaguars in their first matchup, Mahomes has had less than three passing touchdowns in nine out of 17 games.

Mahomes remains undefeated at 4-0 in divisional playoff games, throwing nine touchdowns and zero interceptions. The Jaguars have been putting pressure on quarterbacks at a rate of 36% of dropbacks since Week 14, the fifth-highest in the league. We anticipate them making adjustments when facing Mahomes for the second time.

Furthermore, this play is rated three stars due to considering the potential scenario of Kansas City easing off the gas if they establish an early lead (they are favored by 8.5 points).

FanDuel and other sportsbooks typically charge bettors -140 in juice to back the Under, making PointsBet a more attractive option for better value.

Editor’s Note: As of Saturday afternoon, the best odds for Mahomes’ Under 2.5 TDs are -106 through Fanduel Underscoreg.

Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Lawrence’s Over/Under for passing touchdowns against the Los Angeles Chargers was set at 1.5, and he ended up exceeding expectations, causing significant losses for the bookmakers as the Over was a popular choice among bettors. Once again, we recommend confidently betting the Over with four stars, as head coach Doug Pederson is expected to be aggressive in his play-calling, especially with Reid coaching on the opposing side.

Lawrence struggled in the first seven drives against the Chargers last week, going 5-for-18 for 35 yards with no scores and four interceptions. However, he redeemed himself by leading his team to 31 points in the final five drives, completing 23-of-29 passes for 253 yards and four touchdowns.

Naturally, Los Angeles benefited from having the lowest designed rush rate while leading in the second half this season (24%). Lawrence appeared at ease in Pederson’s fast-paced offensive strategy, and we expect to see more of that utilized in the upcoming week.

Pederson opened the initial meeting against Kansas City with an onside kick and plans to maintain his aggressive approach in the upcoming rematch.

Editor’s note: As of Saturday afternoon, the best odds for Lawrence to score over 1.5 touchdowns are -113 on FanDuel.

Kadarius Toney to score the first touchdown (+1400) ⭐⭐

After joining the Chiefs on Nov. 6, Toney has been adapting well to the team’s high-powered offense. He recorded a season-high 71 receiving yards in Week 17 and scored a rushing touchdown on a jet sweep in Week 18.

As Toney continues to learn the playbook, Reid has confidence in his ability to run a wider variety of routes and is incorporating Toney’s speed into his dynamic offensive strategy.

Kansas City is a significant -8.5 favorite, and we are betting on the Chiefs being the first team to score a touchdown. While many bettors may be interested in Toney’s +225 odds at BetMGM to score a touchdown at any time, we believe there is more value in the +1400 odds (+1300 at DraftKings and +750 at Caesars) for him to score first.

Player prop picks for the Jaguars-Chiefs game were made on 1/19/2026 at 6:19 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Allen Byron
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he’s especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike’s a big advocate of “fading the public” and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that “there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas.” When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He’s tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”