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Bills vs. Bengals Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 9: Sunday Night Football

Allen Byron

Updated on November 5, 2026 at 3:11 PM EST. Read time: 4 minutes and 3 seconds. Find more information on Twitter and Google News.

Ja'Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals celebrates a touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals during the first quarter at State Farm Stadium as we look at our Bills-Bengals prediction.
Ja’Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals celebrates a touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals during the first quarter at State Farm Stadium. Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images/AFP.

Buffalo’s 2026 season came to an end in the divisional round at the hands of Cincinnati. Now, the Bills are hungry for revenge as we analyze our top predictions for the upcoming Sunday Night Football showdown between the Bills and Bengals, supported by the latest NFL odds from our top sports betting apps.

The Buffalo Bills started the season with a disappointing 4-3 record, their worst since 2018. However, they bounced back with a significant win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football. This victory not only rejuvenated their season but also showcased their competitive spirit. The Bills have shown resilience in close games, with five matchups decided by one possession and a 2-3 record in those situations.

In contrast, the Cincinnati Bengals extended their winning streak in the NFC West with a strong 31-17 win against the San Francisco 49ers on the road, completing a clean sweep of their divisional rivals. Despite their success within the NFC West, the Bengals have struggled against teams outside of their division this season, with a 0-3 record against AFC opponents. This highlights the need for improvement in matchups against non-divisional teams in order to enhance their chances of making it to the playoffs.

Here is our top prediction for the Bills-Bengals game on Sunday Night Football, including player props and a comparison of Josh Allen vs. Joe Burrow. Our confidence level is rated on a 1-to-5-star scale, with odds provided by the best NFL betting sites.

Bills vs. Bengals prediction: Sunday Night Football

Bengals -2.5 alternate spread (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Cincinnati got off to a rough start this season with a 1-2 record, largely attributed to quarterback Joe Burrow’s calf injury in the preseason. By Week 3, Burrow’s performance metrics had taken a hit, with a 38 Total QBR, 6.1 air yards per attempt, a -4.5% Completion Percentage Over Expected, and 19% off-target throws. Comparatively, from 2020-2026, Burrow had averaged a 57 Total QBR, 7.6 air yards per attempt, a +4.2% CPOE, and 12% off-target throws.

The Bengals coaching staff went to great lengths to protect him during his injury, running 51 of 56 plays out of shotgun formation in Week 3 to minimize his need to drop back far to pass. However, Burrow appears to be much healthier now, as evidenced by his completion percentage in Week 8 being 17.8% above expected, the best in his career according to Next Gen Stats. His improved performance has also aligned with Cincinnati’s strongest stretch of football.

The Cincinnati Bengals thrive when facing teams with a winning record, such as the 5-3 Bills. In games against opponents who are two or more games over .500 in the previous two seasons (including playoffs), the Bengals have an impressive 6-0 record, the best in the NFL. They have also held these opponents to an average of 16.8 points per game, the lowest in the league, and rank second in Defensive Efficiency at 64. Additionally, the Bengals have the third-best red zone percentage at 36%.

Cincinnati’s defense shined against the 49ers, forcing three turnovers and extending their streak of eight takeaways in the last three games. This is a significant improvement from the five turnovers they forced in the first four games of the season. The Bengals have also shown a strong pass rush, recording 10 or more quarterback pressures in six games in 2026, putting them among the top teams in this category. With these impressive stats, the Bengals are considered a solid four-star play. Josh Allen, who has the most turnovers (53) over the last three seasons, is expected to contribute turnovers and enhance Cincinnati’s chances of success.

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Bills vs. Bengals best odds

bet365 (-125)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
-2.5-2.5N/A-2.5-2.5
-126-128N/A-127-125

Our top sports betting apps all agree that the Bengals are 3-point home favorites. Caesars and bet365 offer +100 odds to back them at that number, but the alternate spread and laying less than a field goal is a more attractive option.

It is possible that the spread may shift in Buffalo’s favor before the game starts, so it may be worth waiting to see if any -2.5s become available during the week to get a better price on the regular point spread instead of the alternate line.

Bills vs. Bengals odds for Sunday Night Football

Bills vs. Bengals odds analysis

Those who supported Cincinnati may have regretted waiting until now to place their bets, as our top sports betting sites listed them as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday night following their victory over the 49ers. The line has since moved to -3, likely due to a combination of public and sharp betting action. Despite being 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, 71% of early point spread wagers have favored the Bengals.

All of our top sportsbooks have set the Over/Under for this game at 48.5 points, with only FanDuel offering odds of -115 for the Over. The total has risen at all locations since opening, starting at 47 for most sites with the best sportsbook promotions and slightly higher at 47.5 for BetMGM. Despite early bets leaning towards the Under by a 60/40 split, the line movement has been in the opposite direction. Interestingly, the Under has been the winning bet in the last four matchups between these teams dating back to 2016.

Sunday Night Football game info

  • When: Sunday, Nov. 5 at 8:20 p.m. ET
  • Where: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
  • How to watch: NBC
  • Weather: 62 degrees, 33% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph WSW

Prediction for Bills vs. Bengals game on October 31, 2026, made at 6:09 a.m. ET.

NFL betting odds pages

Super Bowl OddsNFL Defensive Rookie of the Year OddsNFL Sacks Leader Odds
NFL MVP OddsNFL Comeback Player of the Year OddsNFL Best Record Odds
NFL Offensive Player of the Year OddsNFL Most Regular Season Passing Yards OddsNFL Worst Record Odds
NFL Defensive Player of the Year OddsNFL Most Regular Season Rushing Yards OddsNFL Win Totals Odds
NFL Coach of the Year OddsNFL Most Regular Season Receiving Yards OddsNFL Draft Odds
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

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Written By:
Allen Byron
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he’s especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike’s a big advocate of “fading the public” and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that “there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas.” When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He’s tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”