NFL Teaser Picks Week 9: Titans No Match for K.C. After Bye
Our NFL Week 9 teaser picks are led by the Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars.
A teaser bet allows bettors to adjust multiple spreads and/or totals to specific key numbers and ranges in exchange for a higher vig. For more details on how to place teaser bets and effective strategies, be sure to read our teaser betting guide.
Explore our top picks for Week 9 in the NFL, including our best bets!
Below are our NFL teaser selections for Week 9, with odds provided by FanDuel.
Week 9 NFL ATS Teaser Picks
Favorite to tease down: Chiefs (-12.5)
Andy Reid, head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs, has an impressive record of 20-3 following a bye week in the regular season. Bettors have the opportunity to tease the spread down through the key number of 7. Additionally, the Tennessee Titans are playing their second road game in consecutive weeks, making them vulnerable to a potential letdown performance.
Furthermore, the Titans suffered a humiliating 41-7 defeat at the hands of the Buffalo Bills in Week 2, their only previous encounter with a formidable opponent on the road. As a result, Tennessee may be forced to rely on rookie quarterback Malik Willis for a second straight game, as he only threw 10 passes in last week’s matchup against the Houston Texans.
Tennessee is facing a significant increase in competition as they take on Kansas City, who ranks fifth overall in DVOA, a metric used by Football Outsiders to determine strength of schedule. The Titans have had the easiest schedule in the league up to this point.
With Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes leading the NFL in defense-adjusted yards above replacement and ranking second in EPA per play, along with the luxury of extra preparation for this Week 9 matchup, I anticipate the Chiefs offense to dominate and outscore their opponent.
I don’t believe the Tennessee sideline has the talent to match a well-rested and prepared Kansas City offense.
Underdog to tease up: Jaguars (+1.5)
The Las Vegas Raiders were held scoreless in their Week 8 road game against the New Orleans Saints, yet they are now favored to win on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
I don’t understand it.
Although I’m not eager to wager on the Jaguars, I am feeling confident about adjusting the spread above the crucial number of 7. Furthermore, I believe that bettors may not have a chance to do so by the weekend. It’s worth noting that Vegas has yet to win a road game this season.
Every loss suffered by Jacksonville has been in a one-possession game. Additionally, the Jaguar defense has outperformed the opposing team in key statistics this season, including EPA per play, team pass rush win rate, and DVOA.
The main worry is that Jacksonville will be returning home after a 21-17 defeat to the Denver Broncos in London. However, the Raiders shouldn’t be favored on the road, so I’ll take the Jaguars with the extra six-point cushion.
Week 9 NFL O/U Teaser Picks
Total to tease down: Dolphins-Bears (43.5)
Over the last two weeks, the Chicago Bears’ offense has been outstanding. Their performance on the field, supported by statistics, has been impressive. Chicago is ranked ninth in EPA per play and twelfth in offensive DVOA. In their last two games, they have scored a total of 62 points.
In Week 8, the Miami Dolphins showcased their high-scoring offense once again, securing a 31-27 victory on the road against the Detroit Lions. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL in both DVOA and EPA per play.
In addition, according to PFF, Miami ranks 25th in defensive DVOA and 17th in defense grade, while Chicago ranks 26th in defensive DVOA and 30th in defense grade.
By focusing on the key ranges of 40-41 and 43-44, the total can be adjusted accordingly. With the Bears offense showing signs of improvement and the Dolphins boasting a strong attack led by a healthy Tagovailoa, there is potential value in this matchup.
Total to tease up: Colts-Patriots (39.5)
In the key ranges of 40-41 and 43-44, the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts have scored a total of only 62 points in their last two games combined.
The New England offense has the second-longest average play time in the league this season, and Indianapolis quarterback Sam Ehlinger will be starting just his second game. In Ehlinger’s first game, the Colts only threw on 46.3% of plays.
The New England defense is one of the best in the league, so I don’t expect to see a high-scoring game in this matchup. The Patriots are ranked seventh in defensive DVOA and have given up the fifth-lowest EPA per play in the league. In contrast, the Indianapolis defense is more average, ranking 14th in defensive DVOA and 15th in EPA per play.
I anticipate both teams will focus on running the ball and controlling the clock on Sunday, leading to a low-scoring game.
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