UFC 273: Dern vs. Torres MMA Odds and Picks

Mackenzie Dern and Tecia Torres are set to face off in a crucial women’s strawweight division bout on the main card of UFC 273 in Jacksonville. Check out our predictions for the Dern vs. Torres showdown at 115 pounds.

Although their resumes differ greatly, Dern and Torres are both in a similar position in the UFC strawweight rankings as they prepare to compete in Jacksonville. Both fighters are aiming to establish themselves as potential contenders for the title. Dern, who entered the promotion in 2018 with a strong background in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and limited professional experience, faces a tough challenge with a 6-2 record in the UFC.

In contrast, Torres has been competing in the UFC strawweight division for nearly eight years. Despite holding a 9-5 record in the Octagon, she has been consistently labeled as a gatekeeper. With a current three-fight win streak, she aims to break free from this status and move towards the top of the division, hoping to secure a long-awaited title shot.

Will Dern’s praised grappling skills be sufficient to secure a sought-after win, or will Torres’ seasoned experience and relentless striking ability maintain her winning streak?

Below are my picks and predictions for the strawweight bout at UFC 273 according to Dern-Torres (odds sourced from FanDuel; confidence level rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars).

Dern vs. Torres Fight Info

The main card will take place at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, FL on Saturday, April 9 at 10 p.m. ET. The event will be available on PPV and ESPN+.

Dern vs. Torres Odds Analysis

As of Tuesday night, Caesars, DraftKings, and PointsBet all have this exciting matchup as a pick’em, while FanDuel lists the more experienced Torres as a +104 underdog.

Torres’ typical method of winning is more appealing with FanDuel, offering a decision victory at +160. Dern, the BJJ specialist, is favored at -128 on the same sportsbook. Those betting on Dern securing another submission victory can find good value at +250 with both Caesars and FanDuel.

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Mackenzie Dern Betting Profile

Experts are becoming rare in this ever-changing and sometimes harsh sport, but Dern’s core skills have helped her succeed. She has defeated six opponents and submitted four of them in eight appearances in the Octagon. Despite only being 29 years old, she may still seem inexperienced in striking, but she has shown to be a confident fighter on her feet and possesses surprising power in her hands.

Like many practitioners of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Dern has faced defeat against patient strikers who prefer to avoid engaging in grappling exchanges. Her most recent loss was to Marina Rodriguez, a skilled Muay Thai fighter, in October. Torres, on the other hand, is also a talented striker with extensive experience in the sport.

Tecia Torres Betting Profile

Similar to Dern, Torres entered the UFC with limited experience and has remained on the roster since. Participating in “The Ultimate Fighter Season 20,” which introduced the strawweight division, Torres has become a staple in the weight class. However, her recent performances in 2018 and 2019 have resulted in her being seen as a gatekeeper. During this period, she suffered four consecutive losses, with three of them against former champions.

After facing setbacks, Torres has made a strong comeback by securing three consecutive victories over Brianna Van Buren, Sam Hughes, and Angela Hill, whom she has faced twice before. She achieved these wins through her signature footwork and combination striking. Despite having competed in 14 UFC fights, the 32-year-old has not yet contended for the strawweight title. However, a victory against Dern could lead her to another opportunity to face a top-ranked opponent.

Dern vs. Torres Picks

Torres is favored to win at +104, with a bet on Torres winning by decision at +160.

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Dern vs. Torres Predictions

Torres (+104)

While Dern has defeated skilled fighters during her time in the UFC, she has suffered losses to Rodriguez and Amanda Ribas. Torres possesses similar technical skills and can effectively strike while moving backwards, making her a formidable opponent for Dern.

Dern is expected to take on the role of the aggressor in seeking takedowns, but Torres, with her advantage in experience and technical striking, should be prepared for this strategy. She can counter with plenty of sidestepping and her signature rapid-fire combination punches to secure her fourth consecutive victory.

Torres by decision (+160)

Those who are acquainted with Torres’ fighting technique and background will understand that securing a stoppage victory for her is as rare as spotting the Loch Ness Monster, as she has only finished two out of her 18 professional fights. Despite not having knockout power, the strawweight fighter compensates by maintaining a high volume of strikes from the beginning to the end of the match.

Although her opponent is skilled at securing submissions with minimal openings, I believe Torres’ experience and dedication to her game plans will ultimately lead to her winning on the scorecards.

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The Dern-Torres picks were made on April 5, 2026 at 11:44 p.m. ET.