Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction, Picks, Odds Week 6: Thursday Night Football
Our top prediction for the Denver Broncos visiting the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday Night Football in Week 6 of the NFL is based on the most favorable NFL odds available.
The Denver Broncos squandered a 13-8 halftime advantage against the New York Jets in Week 5, extending their losing streak to 10 games when ahead after the first half, with three of those losses occurring in the current season.
However, the Kansas City Chiefs managed to win their fourth game in a row, with three of those victories being by a narrow margin. They currently have a 1.5-game advantage in the AFC West.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has an impressive 11-0 record against the Broncos in his career. Additionally, Kansas City has continued their dominance with 15 straight wins against the Broncos, making it the third-longest streak in NFL history.
Starting off our Week 6 NFL predictions, we are focusing on the Broncos vs. Chiefs matchup for Thursday Night Football. We will also be analyzing the top NFL Week 6 odds and providing player props for the upcoming games. Make sure to check out the TNF odds from our recommended NFL betting sites and use our confidence rating system ranging from 1 to 5 stars.
Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction: Thursday Night Football
Under 51.5 (-112 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
Editor’s note: The total has been adjusted to 47.5 at the majority of our top sportsbooks, with most offering standard -110 odds for both outcomes. The only exception is Caesars, which is still at 47. Our Broncos-Chiefs parlay focuses on this lower total.
Betting on the Under with the Broncos is a risky move, especially considering they gave up 31 points to the Jets without allowing a single touchdown on five red-zone possessions. Despite their streak of allowing 28-plus points in four straight games being tied for the longest since the 1970 merger, there are still several factors that suggest this Thursday night game will have fewer points than anticipated.
Denver has given up over 171 yards rushing in four straight games, with Breece Hall being the latest player to exploit their defense with 171 rushing yards. The Chiefs, who have a strong rushing offense averaging 123 yards per game, will likely continue to take advantage of Denver’s base nickel defense focused on stopping the pass from Patrick Mahomes.
Travis Kelce appeared to bounce back quickly from his ankle injury last week, returning in the third quarter to score a touchdown. However, there is still concern about potential swelling postgame. Despite being listed as out on Monday’s unofficial injury report, Kelce was back on the practice field participating in drills on Tuesday.
Sanchez Rhea offers his top NFL player props for Travis Kelce on Thursday night.
Furthermore, the Chiefs are scheduled to face each other twice in the next three weeks. As a result, it would not be unexpected for the Chiefs to utilize a more run-focused strategy on a shortened week in order to preserve some of their playbook for their upcoming game in Denver.
This game is rated three stars, with Kansas City’s defense only allowing an average of 14.8 points per game during their recent four-game winning streak. They have also kept all opponents to 20 points or fewer. Despite Russell Wilson’s impressive 11 touchdown passes, the Broncos quarterback may struggle to increase his numbers if the defense cannot get off the field on Thursday.
Looking for some excitement during Thursday Night Football? Check out our experts Sanchez Rhea’s Broncos vs. Chiefs NFL player props, Phil Wood’s top Patrick Mahomes NFL player props, and Evans Santiago’s predictions for anytime and first touchdown scorers.
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Broncos vs. Chiefs best odds
BetRivers (-112)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 51 | 50.5 | 50.5 | 50.5 |
| Under (-110) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) |
BetRivers offers the highest odds among our top five sports betting apps, with a difference of up to a full point compared to others.
Denver has been the second-most profitable team for Over bets this season, winning four out of five games, while Kansas City’s Under bets have gone 3-2 in their five games. In the last three meetings between these teams, the Over bet has won by an average of 9.7 points.
Broncos vs. Chiefs odds
Broncos vs. Chiefs odds analysis
The opening total at FanDuel on Sunday night was 50.5, but quickly rose to 51.5 within the first hour before dropping back down by half a point. On the other hand, the total opened higher at 51.5 at BetMGM, but Under bettors caused the line to decrease to 50.5 by Monday morning. Early bets are leaning towards the Over, with a ratio of 75/25 in favor of the Over.
Our top sports betting sites are all in agreement with Kansas City being a 10.5-point favorite, with FanDuel offering the highest odds (-115) to bet on the favorites. Despite no movement in the NFL Week 6 odds, there is a possibility of change as 85% of early bets have supported the Chiefs. Mahomes has a record of 44-44-1 ATS as a favorite, but is only 10-13-1 ATS when his teams are favored by double digits.
Thursday Night Football game info
- When: Thursday, Oct. 12 at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- How to watch: PRIME VIDEO
- Weather: 82 degrees, 24% chance of precipitation, wind 16 mph SSE
Prediction for Broncos vs. Chiefs made on October 9, 2023 at 6:29 a.m. ET.
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