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Bengals vs. Chiefs Odds, Picks, Predictions for AFC Championship: Will Cincinnati Return to Super Bowl?

Allen Byron

Updated on January 29, 2023 at 4:05 PM EST • Read time: 3 minutes and 17 seconds. Links to Twitter and Google News.

Quarterback Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals throws the ball as we look at the 5 sportsbook features you need
Quarterback Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals throws the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs in third quarter in the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium on Jan. 30, 2022. Jamie Squire/Getty Images/AFP

The Cincinnati Bengals will take on the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of the AFC Championship Game for the first time since 2011-12. Check out our Bengals vs. Chiefs NFL picks based on the latest NFL odds for Sunday’s game.

By defeating the Buffalo Bills, the Cincinnati Bengals secured a spot in the AFC Championship Game. The Bills, who were considered preseason favorites, failed to reach the conference championship game for the first time since 2015. Cincinnati’s defense limited Buffalo to a season-low 10 points and maintained their perfect record of 11-0 when scoring first this season.

Explore our player prop picks for the Bengals vs. Chiefs game, as well as our selections for Patrick Mahomes.

Joe Burrow, quarterback for the Bengals, has a playoff record of 5-1, matching the franchise’s total playoff wins in the previous 53 years. If he wins this game, Burrow will be the first quarterback to have four wins against Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs.

Kansas City is appearing in its fifth straight AFC Championship Game, with a record of 2-2 in the previous four games. The team is hoping to seek revenge for last year’s 27-24 overtime loss to Cincinnati. Quarterback Mahomes now has nine playoff wins, which is the second-highest for a quarterback in his first six seasons. He also improved his record to 5-0 in Divisional playoffs, with an impressive 11-0 TD-INT ratio.

Below is our top pick for the AFC Conference Championship between the Bengals and Chiefs, with odds courtesy of FanDuel. Our confidence level in this pick is rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

Take a look at our predictions for the 49ers vs. Eagles game and our top NFL bets for the Conference Championships.

Bengals vs. Chiefs game info

On Sunday, January 29th at 6:30 p.m. ET, the game will be broadcasted on CBS from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. The weather is expected to be 27 degrees with an 11% chance of precipitation and 11-mph NNE wind.

Bengals vs. Chiefs odds

Bengals vs. Chiefs odds analysis

At the start, Kansas City was favored by 3 points at home, but early in the week the line shifted to Cincinnati being favored by 1 point. The Bengals were even favored by 2.5 points at some sportsbooks, but supporters of the Chiefs bet heavily on them, especially since Mahomes has been practicing and walking without a limp. As a result, the line moved back to Kansas City being favored by 1.5 points.

The initial Over/Under line was set at 47.5 and has since shifted in favor of the Over, currently at 48 and possibly even 48.5 at FanDuel.

Want to get a head start on The Big Game? Take a look at our analysis of the potential Super Bowl odds and lines before Championship Weekend, along with our predictions for the 2023 Super Bowl odds.

Bengals vs. Chiefs pick

Bengals vs. Chiefs Under 48 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The Bengals have an impressive 21-5 record against the spread in their last 26 games, establishing them as the top-performing team in the NFL in terms of ATS over the past two seasons. This success can largely be attributed to the strong Cincinnati defense under the leadership of defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, which is why betting on the Under seems like the most logical choice.

When new users sign up using FanDuel’s promo code and bet $5 on Bengals vs. Chiefs picks, they can receive $150 back in bonus bets.

Last week, the Bengals limited the Bills to just 64 rushing yards, their worst of the season, and a red zone touchdown percentage of 33%, their second worst. They also put pressure on quarterback Josh Allen on 34% of his dropbacks. Allen struggled when targeting wideout Stefon Diggs, completing only 4 of 11 passes (36%), his worst completion percentage with Diggs as a teammate.

Mahomes is dealing with a high ankle sprain, a injury known to sideline players for weeks. He will be up against a Bengals defense that ranked first in completion rate and passer rating during the regular season. In past matchups, Cincinnati has limited Mahomes to 252.3 passing yards per game and 7.5 yards per attempt, and we anticipate those numbers to decrease given his current health status.

During Week 13, Kansas City only pressured Burrow on 22.2% of dropbacks, which was their second-lowest pressure rate of the season. With Cincinnati missing three starters on the offensive line, the Chiefs are expected to be more successful in getting to Burrow and implementing a different game plan compared to Buffalo, who pressured him on just eight dropbacks (21.1%). Burrow managed to avoid interceptions and take one or fewer sacks in his first playoff game last week, but it’s unlikely that he will replicate that performance for a second consecutive week.

Bengals vs. Chiefs best odds

DraftKings (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
4847.5484747.5
Over -110, Under -110Over -115, Under -105Over -110, Under -110Over -110, Under -110Over -110, Under -110

The most intriguing difference among the sportsbooks is that only Caesars has decreased its over/under line from an initial 47.5. Those betting the under may be torn between DraftKings and BetMGM, both offering a line of 48 points, while those betting the over should consider placing their wagers at Caesars.

The Bengals-Chiefs pick was made on January 27, 2023 at 6:24 a.m. Eastern Time.

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Written By:
Allen Byron
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he’s especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike’s a big advocate of “fading the public” and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that “there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas.” When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He’s tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”