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Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds, Picks, Predictions NFL Divisional Round: Does Score Stay Under Inflated Total?

Lopez Julia

Updated as of January 21, 2023 at 6:56 PM EST • Read time: 2 minutes and 48 seconds. Find more information on Twitter and Google News.

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs warms up before the game against the Denver Broncos, and we offer our top Chiefs vs. Packers player props based on the best NFL odds.
Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs warms up before the game against the Denver Broncos. Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images via AFP.

The Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs will face off once more on Saturday, with a spot in the AFC Championship Game on the line. Keep reading for our top picks for the Jaguars vs. Chiefs matchup, based on the latest NFL odds.

The Chiefs’ (14-3) path to securing the No. 1 overall seed and a first-round bye in the AFC Playoffs was unexpected, yet not surprising given Kansas City’s strong performance.

In order to advance to the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs will need to take care of business against a Jaguars team (9-8) that just pulled off one of the most remarkable playoff comebacks in NFL history.

Below is our top pick for the Jaguars vs. Chiefs NFL game in the Divisional Round, with odds from DraftKings and BetMGM. Our confidence in this pick is rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

Explore our player prop picks for the Jaguars vs. Chiefs matchup, our same game parlay for the game, and our prop picks comparing Trevor Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Game Info

Event: NFL Playoff GameDate: Saturday, January 21stTime: 4:30 p.m. ETTV Channel: NBCLocation: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MOWeather: 36°F, 18% chance of precipitation, 3 mph winds

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds Analysis

The Chiefs were initially favored by 9.5 points at home but the line dropped to -8.5 due to heavy betting. It has now increased back to -9.5 at top sportsbooks by Saturday afternoon. More than half of the bets, 51%, have been placed on Kansas City to cover the spread.

The initial total of 51.5 has been raised to between 52.5 and 53 at our suggested sportsbooks due to increased betting activity. The majority of bettors, accounting for 64% of the money wagered, are anticipating a high-scoring game and have placed their bets on the Over.

Take a look at our odds for the Super Bowl and Super Bowl MVP.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Pick

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Under 53 (-110 via DraftKings, BetMGM and Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

In November, the Jaguars faced off against the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium and ended with a final score of 27-17, totaling 44 points. Despite the disappointing outcome, the Jaguars used that game as motivation to turn their season around, going on to finish the regular season with a strong 6-1 record after the loss in Kansas City.

The Jaguars’ defense significantly improved during their final three regular-season games, only allowing one touchdown. Despite giving up 30 points in their Wild Card win against the Chargers, much of that can be attributed to the short fields created by Lawrence’s four first-half interceptions. In the second half, Jacksonville only allowed three points.

In previous playoffs, focusing on time of possession has been successful in countering Kansas City. Jacksonville, with an average number of plays per game, may adopt a deliberate strategy to minimize Patrick Mahomes’ opportunities.

It is unlikely to be a successful strategy due to the high moneyline odds, but it may result in a lower-scoring game than expected by the sportsbooks. This has been a common trend in Kansas City home games this season, with only 2 out of 8 games going over. While Mahomes and the Chiefs offense are expected to score, the Jacksonville defense, which averages 1.5 takeaways per game, could disrupt their plans.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Best Odds

DraftKings, BetMGM and Caesars (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
Under 53Under 52.5Under 53Under 53Under 52.5
-110-106-110-110-110

While all four games in the Division Round could turn into high-scoring shootouts, the Jaguars-Chiefs game stands out as the only one starting with a total score prediction above 50. The odds have shifted in our favor, making the Under bet even more appealing than it was at the beginning of the week.

Out of our five top sportsbooks, only two have the total listed at 52.5. However, DraftKings, Caesars, and BetMGM offer a better deal for Under bettors, with the number set at 53 and the same -110 odds. If the odds were to rise to 54.5, this would be a highly recommended four-star bet.

The pick for the Jaguars-Chiefs game was made on January 20, 2023 at 12:50 p.m. Eastern Time.

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Written By:
Lopez Julia
Since graduating from the University of Missouri in 2016, Lopez Julia has covered the St. Louis Cardinals and Blues hockey as a writer for KMOV in St. Louis. He also co-hosts ‘The Big Show’ on KTGR radio in Columbia, Missouri. The show airs in afternoon drive, weekdays from 4-6 p.m. Brenden has contributed to SBR since 2021, providing insights on NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, and the NBA. You can download his daily baseball podcast, B-Schaeff Daily, on Spotify or Apple podcasts, and you can find Brenden across social media @bschaeffer12.