NFL Player Props & Best Bets for Thanksgiving: Cowboys Continue to Dominate
We are exploring our top NFL player props and best bets for Thanksgiving, which will be highlighted by three NFC divisional matchups in the NFL’s Thanksgiving Day tripleheader. We have analyzed the best NFL odds to provide you with the most promising picks for the holiday games.
Some may argue that this Thanksgiving Day game is the most highly anticipated season opener in recent history. The Detroit Lions, boasting an impressive 8-2 record (their best start since 1962), are leading the NFC North division, while the Green Bay Packers are looking to catch up and make a push for the top spot.
The Dallas Cowboys, heavily favored by over a touchdown, are gearing up to take on the Washington Commanders in a pivotal NFC East matchup. With home-field advantage on their side, the Cowboys are looking to capitalize on their status as favorites and secure a crucial victory in this highly anticipated showdown.
The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks are set to go head-to-head in a crucial NFC West matchup under the lights. A win for the Seahawks would propel them into a first-place tie in the division.
Explore our comprehensive NFL Thanksgiving coverage, Week 12 predictions, NFL player props, and top bets for Thanksgiving. Odds are sourced from the leading NFL betting sites, and pick confidence is rated on a 1-to-5-star scale.
NFL best bets: Thanksgiving
- Sam Howell Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-150 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Brandin Cooks anytime touchdown scorer vs. Commanders (+240 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Packers +7.5 vs. Lions (-110 via DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- 49ers-Seahawks Under 43.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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NFL Thanksgiving schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (-7.5)
- Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys (-11)
- San Francisco 49ers (-7) vs. Seattle Seahawks
NFL player props for Thanksgiving
Sam Howell Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-150 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
In the previous week’s game against the New York Giants, Commanders quarterback Sam Howell, who led the league in completions and ranked in the top two in passing yards per game and passing touchdowns over the past three weeks, faced a significant challenge. Despite his impressive statistics, the Washington coaching staff must prioritize protecting Howell by incorporating more running plays into their game plan. Howell’s 50+ sacks through 11 games of the season make him only the second quarterback since 1970 to endure such a high number of sacks during this timeframe, with David Carr being the other.
After a strong showing of 2.5 sacks in his latest game, Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons now has 12 career games with two or more sacks. Dallas also boasted a 74% Pass Rush Win Rate against the Carolina Panthers, the highest in the NFL this year according to Next Gen Stats. With this ferocious pass rush, Howell should expect to be under pressure and running for his life.
This is a strong four-star play, considering Dallas has only allowed one or fewer passing touchdowns from an opposing quarterback in six out of ten games this season. If not for our concern about Howell potentially putting up numbers in garbage time, we would confidently upgrade this to a five-star play. Dallas stands out as the first team since the 2007 New England Patriots to win six of its first 10 games by 20 or more points.
When it comes to placing this bet, DraftKings is our preferred option because all of our top sports betting apps charge -154 or more to bet on the Under.
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Brandin Cooks anytime touchdown vs. Commanders (+240 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Brandin Cooks, the Cowboys wide receiver, has been performing exceptionally well recently, scoring touchdowns in three of the last five games. This is a significant improvement from the start of the season, where he had no touchdowns in his first four games. Cooks’ success can be attributed to having Dak Prescott as his quarterback, who has been on fire with 14 total touchdowns and only two interceptions in the last four games. Prescott also ranks second in the league in Total QBR (73.9) and PAA (points attributed by a quarterback), making him one of the top quarterbacks in the league.
Washington’s pass defense is porous, coming in at 30th in the league with an average of 258.5 yards allowed per game. They have given up over 300 passing yards to five quarterbacks and at least two passing touchdowns to eight quarterbacks. Four quarterbacks have thrown for three or more touchdowns against them.
Cooks has scored a receiving touchdown in each of his last two home games, and with his +240 anytime touchdown odds available with our FanDuel promo code, it’s a better value compared to the +150 odds at BetRivers.
This offer is only available to new customers. To be eligible, you must deposit a minimum of $5 and place your first bet of $5 or more. If your bet wins within 72 hours, you will receive $200 in Bonus Bets.
NFL game picks for Thanksgiving
Packers +7.5 vs. Lions (-110 via DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is the sharpest line we’ve seen yet, with all of our top sports betting sites offering a 7.5-point spread at -110 odds. Green Bay has often been underestimated as the underdog in 8 out of 10 games this season, but this game is the first where they are favored by more than a field goal. The Packers started the season 3-0 ATS as underdogs, with two outright wins, but struggled to cover or win as underdogs until their recent victory against the Los Angeles Chargers. Despite this, we are confident in backing the Packers by more than a touchdown in this divisional matchup, as the Lions are overrated due to their strong start.
Detroit’s defense struggled against the Chicago Bears, giving up 25 first downs. The Lions’ defense has been inconsistent, ranking in the bottom three for DVOA variance. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s offense has been performing well, putting up over 394 total yards in consecutive games against tough defenses like the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Los Angeles Chargers.
With this play, we are going against the historical trend that favorites of a touchdown or more on Thanksgiving have covered 17 of the last 23 games.
49ers-Seahawks Under 43.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Although the Over has been successful in San Francisco’s recent matchups against NFC West teams, the 49ers and Seahawks engaged in two low-scoring games last season, each totaling 34 points. Furthermore, the trend of Unders in primetime games has been consistent this year, with a 25-8 record, and historically, 11 out of 16 Thanksgiving evening games have resulted in Unders being successful, amounting to a 69% success rate.
Seattle is optimistic about having Geno Smith as their quarterback, despite him having recovered from an arm injury just four days ago. Additionally, the team will be missing their top rusher Kenneth Walker III, which will not benefit an offense that has ranked below the top 20 in DVOA over the past six weeks.
49ers quarterback Brock Purdy has been on fire lately, with a perfect passer rating and a 6-0 TD-INT ratio in his last two games, throwing for 629 yards. However, his performance drops significantly when playing on the road. On away games, Purdy has a 7-3 TD-INT ratio, a 64.2% completion percentage, a 97.6 passer rating, and averages 8.2 yards per attempt. In contrast, when playing at home, Purdy boasts an 11-2 TD-INT ratio, a 76.1% completion percentage, a 132.6 passer rating, and averages 11.2 yards per attempt.
FanDuel has the highest total of 43 on offer, so we are taking advantage by grabbing the 43.5 before it matches the numbers offered by other sportsbooks.
This offer is exclusive to new customers. Simply deposit a minimum of $5, place your first bet of $5 or more, and if your bet wins within 72 hours, you will receive $200 in Bonus Bets.
The NFL’s top betting picks were placed on 11/22/2023 at 6:09 a.m. ET.
NFL betting odds pages
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- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Underscoreg Promos (U.S. only)
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