Dolphins vs. Jets Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 12: Thursday Night Football on Black Friday
The Miami Dolphins will take on the New York Jets in the NFL’s inaugural Black Friday game for Thursday Night Football in Week 12. Our predictions for the Dolphins vs. Jets matchup are based on the latest NFL odds.
The Miami Dolphins are on top in the AFC East with a 7-3 record after defeating the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 11. Their perfect 5-0 record at home this season is a highlight, a feat not achieved since 2000. This impressive home performance has played a big role in their current divisional lead.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been a key factor in driving the Dolphins’ offense to success, leading them to an impressive 6-0 record in 2025 whenever he throws for at least two touchdowns. However, in Week 12, Tagovailoa will face a tough test against the talented New York Jets secondary. This matchup promises to be intense, challenging Tagovailoa’s skills and strategic thinking.
The Jets dropped to 4-6 after a decisive loss to the Buffalo Bills. They will be relieved to head back home, as New York has now lost 10 consecutive road games against AFC East opponents.
Despite the Dolphins having faith in their starting quarterback, the Jets have made the decision to bench Zach Wilson once again. Tim Boyle will take over as the starting quarterback on Friday, putting the pressure on New York’s defense to continue carrying the team, as they have been doing all season.
In addition to our Thursday Night Football odds and player props for the Dolphins-Jets game, we are providing our top prediction for their Black Friday matchup. Our prediction is based on odds from the top NFL betting sites and confidence levels are rated on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Dolphins vs. Jets prediction: Friday Night Football
Under 41.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
The total for this game is likely to remain low because of the Jets’ struggling offense, which is not expected to improve with Boyle as the quarterback. It is assumed that the defense will continue to perform well in order to compensate for the offense’s deficiencies.
New York had only scored eight offensive touchdowns going into last week, making them the second team since 2010 to have so few through nine games. The Jets finally scored a touchdown right before halftime in their game against the Buffalo Bills, which was their only score of the game. Prior to this, New York had not scored a touchdown since the first quarter of Week 8. Despite a high number of touchdowns across the league in Weeks 9 and 10, totaling 129, the Jets did not contribute to the scoring.
The New York Jets have scored an average of only 8.0 points per game in their last three losses. Additionally, they had the lowest third-down conversion rate in the league at 25.0% before Week 11, where the league average was 39.0%. Against the Bills, the Jets failed to convert any of their 11 third-down attempts.
Despite committing four turnovers, the Jets managed to hold strong in the red zone, allowing only one touchdown and three field goals to a Buffalo offense that was ranked third in red-zone touchdown percentage. Additionally, the Jets effectively contained Bills running back James Cook, limiting him to 4.3 yards per carry compared to his season average of 6.3 yards per carry during the second half of the season.
However, the Jets also allowed six sacks, which can be attributed to the team using its eighth offensive line combination after Mekhi Becton left the game with an ankle injury.
On the other hand, Miami’s defense is entering the game with significant momentum, having caused four turnovers (three interceptions and one turnover on downs) and three punts in the Las Vegas Raiders’ seven second-half possessions. Since New York heavily depends on turnovers to score, we anticipate a more cautious game strategy from the Dolphins, who are ranked 21st in the league with 16 turnovers.
Tyreek Hill has accumulated 1,222 receiving yards in the first 10 games of the season, the most during the Super Bowl era. However, the formidable cornerback duo of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed will likely contain his explosive plays.
Our Phil Wood expresses his concern in his Tyreek Hill prop picks, while Kelly Gage explains why Miami’s quarterback will also face limitations in his Tua Tagovailoa prop picks.
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Dolphins vs. Jets promo codes for Black Friday
Dolphins vs. Jets best odds
FanDuel (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
| Under 41 | Under 41.5 | Under 41 | Under 41 | Under 41 |
| -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Backers have an easy choice with FanDuel as their top sportsbook option, as it stands out from the rest by offering a high total of 41.5 points. We recommend playing this line down to 41, and it may decrease further if the likelihood of afternoon rain increases as the week progresses.
The Jets have not gone over the total in their last five games leading up to this matchup.
Dolphins vs. Jets odds for Thursday Night Football
Dolphins vs. Jets odds analysis
The total line has seen movement in favor of the Under, with FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365 all opening at 42 while DraftKings has dropped to 41. Despite 61% of early bets being on the Over, there is reverse line movement.
All of our top sports betting sites have a consensus point spread of Dolphins -7.5 with standard -110 odds on both sides. FanDuel saw the biggest change in the line, starting at -6.5 and crossing over to -7. Caesars briefly went from -7.5 to -8 before dropping half a point, and DraftKings moved from -7 to -7.5.
More than 69% of early bets are in favor of Miami, and the Dolphins have a strong 8-2 record against the spread in their last 10 games against New York.
Friday Night Football game info
- When: Friday, Nov. 24 at 3 p.m. ET
- Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Weather: 50 degrees, 11% chance of precipitation, wind 6-mph north winds
Prediction for Dolphins vs. Jets game on 11/20/2025 at 3:54 p.m. ET.
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