Dolphins vs. Jets Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 12: Thursday Night Football on Black Friday
The Miami Dolphins will take on the New York Jets in the NFL’s inaugural Black Friday game for Thursday Night Football in Week 12. Our top predictions for the Dolphins vs. Jets matchup are determined by the current NFL odds.
The Miami Dolphins are on a roll in the AFC East with a 7-3 record, thanks to their recent win against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 11. Their undefeated 5-0 record at home this season is a noteworthy achievement not seen since 2000. This exceptional home performance has played a key role in their current top spot in the division.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has played a crucial role in driving the Dolphins’ offense, demonstrating their strength with a perfect 6-0 record in 2023 whenever he throws at least two touchdowns. However, in Week 12, Tagovailoa will be challenged by the talented New York Jets secondary, creating an exciting matchup that will put his skills and strategy to the test.
The Jets dropped to 4-6 after a one-sided loss to the Buffalo Bills. They will be relieved to be back home, as New York has now lost 10 consecutive road games against AFC East opponents.
As the Dolphins continue to rely on their established starting quarterback, the Jets have decided to bench their 2021 second overall pick, Zach Wilson. Tim Boyle will take over as the starting quarterback on Friday, placing the pressure on New York’s defense to once again carry the team, a role they have shouldered throughout the season.
In addition to our Thursday Night Football odds and player props for the Dolphins-Jets matchup, we are offering our top prediction for their Black Friday game, with odds sourced from our top NFL betting sites. Pick confidence is rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.
Dolphins vs. Jets prediction: Friday Night Football
Under 41.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
The game is likely to remain under the total because of the Jets’ struggling offense, which is not expected to improve with Boyle as quarterback. The assumption is that New York’s defense will continue to perform well while consistently having to compensate for the offense’s limitations.
Before last week, the New York team had only scored eight offensive touchdowns, putting them among the fewest in the league since 2010. Their only touchdown in the game against the Buffalo Bills came right before halftime, breaking a scoring drought that had lasted since Week 8. Despite a high number of touchdowns across the league in Weeks 9 and 10, the Jets were unable to contribute to the scoring frenzy.
During a three-game losing streak, New York has only been able to average 8.0 points per game. Additionally, the Jets entered last week with the lowest third-down conversion rate in the league at 25.0%, while the league average was 39.0% as of Week 11, according to Sharp Football Analysis. Against the Bills, the Jets went 0-for-11 on third down conversions.
Despite committing four turnovers, the Jets managed to hold strong in the red zone, only allowing one touchdown and three field goals to a Buffalo offense that was ranked third in red-zone touchdown percentage. Additionally, the Jets successfully contained Bills running back James Cook, limiting him to 4.3 yards per carry compared to his season average of 6.3 yards per carry during the second half of the season.
However, the Jets also gave up six sacks, largely due to the team having to use its eighth offensive line combination after Mekhi Becton was carted off with an ankle injury.
On the other hand, Miami’s defense is riding high with momentum from their impressive performance against the Las Vegas Raiders, where they forced four turnovers (three interceptions and one turnover on downs) and three punts in the second half. Knowing that the New York offense heavily relies on turnovers, we anticipate the Dolphins to play a more cautious game considering their middle-of-the-pack ranking for turnovers in the league.
Tyreek Hill has accumulated 1,222 receiving yards in just 10 games this season, the highest total during the Super Bowl era. However, the dynamic cornerback duo of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed will likely contain his explosive playmaking abilities.
Phil Wood expresses his concern in his prop picks for Tyreek Hill, while Kelly Gage explains why Miami’s quarterback will also face limitations in his Tua Tagovailoa prop picks.
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Dolphins vs. Jets promo codes for Black Friday
Dolphins vs. Jets best odds
FanDuel (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
| Under 41 | Under 41.5 | Under 41 | Under 41 | Under 41 |
| -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Supporters can easily choose FanDuel as their top choice, as it is the only sportsbook on our list offering a total as high as 41.5 points. We recommend playing this line down to 41, and it may decrease further if the likelihood of afternoon rain rises in the coming week.
The Jets have not gone Over in five consecutive games leading up to this matchup.
Dolphins vs. Jets odds for Thursday Night Football
Dolphins vs. Jets odds analysis
So far, the total line movement has been in favor of the Under. FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365 all started with an opening number of 42 on Sunday night, while DraftKings has dropped half a point to 41. We are observing reverse line movement due to early betting splits, with 61% of wagers placed on the Over.
All of our top sports betting sites are currently offering the Miami Dolphins with a point spread of -7.5 and standard -110 odds on both sides. FanDuel has seen the most significant change in their line, starting at -6.5 and moving past the key number of seven. Caesars briefly went from -7.5 to -8 before dropping half a point, while DraftKings shifted from -7 to -7.5.
More than 69% of early bets are in favor of Miami, and the Dolphins have an 8-2 record against the spread in their last 10 games against New York.
Friday Night Football game info
- When: Friday, Nov. 24 at 3 p.m. ET
- Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Weather: 50 degrees, 11% chance of precipitation, wind 6-mph north winds
Prediction for Dolphins vs Jets game on November 20, 2023, at 3:54 p.m. ET.
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