Wednesday’s MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Alvarez Set to Keep Hammering Blue Jays
On Wednesday, we are analyzing the numerous subpar pitchers set to play and providing our top MLB player props and expert picks based on the most favorable MLB odds.
Today’s player props will focus on the two early MLB games scheduled for a 6:40 p.m. ET start out of the 15 games on the slate for Wednesday.
The St. Louis Cardinals are traveling to Pittsburgh to face the Pirates in NL play, while the Boston Red Sox are heading to Miami for an inter-league matchup against the Marlins.
Similarly to the previous two games, pitchers who are having a tough time on the mound will be starting against power hitters performing at an elite level in the other two games we are honing in on.
Next up, the Houston Astros, led by MLB MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez, will face off against the Toronto Blue Jays at 7:07 p.m. ET. Following that, the Minnesota Twins, who are steadily improving their chances at winning the World Series, will play against the Detroit Tigers at 8:10 p.m. ET.
Here are our MLB player props and expert selections for Wednesday.
Wednesday’s MLB expert picks
Our MLB picks are determined by odds from our top MLB betting sites, with confidence ratings ranging from 1 to 5 stars.
- Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 total bases (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Jarren Duran Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 home run (+310 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
- Carlos Correa Over 1.5 hits (+200 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
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MLB player props
Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 1.5 (-120) | Over 1.5 (-125) | OFF | Over 1.5 (-119) | Over 1.5 (-115) |
Information about the game between the Cardinals and Pirates: Pirates are favored with a moneyline of -130 according to bet365. The total runs are set at 8, with the Over at -120 and the Under at +100. The game will start at 6:40 p.m. Eastern Time.
Reynolds, the lesser-known player I’m supporting today, is having a quietly impressive season and is on track for another All-Star appearance. Despite being overshadowed by Paul Skenes’ popularity, Reynolds, an outfielder for the Pirates, had a standout month in June.
In the last month, the 29-year-old had an impressive batting average of .330 with an on-base percentage of .388 and a slugging percentage of .604. He accumulated 64 total bases and 15 extra-base hits in 26 games, making him one of the most dominant hitters in the league in June. On average, he averaged 2.5 total bases per game.
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The momentum from the one-time All-Star should continue into July, especially against the Cardinals. The Cardinals are starting Miles Mikolas, who was recently crushed by the Cincinnati Reds, giving up 12 hits and 10 runs, increasing his ERA to 5.32. It is unlikely that his ERA will improve against Pittsburgh, especially in his matchup with Reynolds.
Mikolas relies heavily on his four-seamer (25.9%) and sinker (24.4%). Reynolds has been hitting both pitches well, with a .337 average and .515 SLG against four-seamers and a .320 average and .500 SLG against sinkers. Based on these stats, the odds suggest a 53.49% chance of winning, with a $10 bet resulting in an $18.70 payout.
Top odds: -115 at bet365
Jarren Duran Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 1.5 (-130) | OFF | Over 1.5 (-128) | OFF | Over 1.5 (-125) |
Information for the game between the Red Sox and Marlins: Moneyline odds are Red Sox -140 according to bet365, with the total set at Over 8 (-120) or Under 8 (+100) also from bet365. The game will start at 6:40 p.m. Eastern Time.
Despite Reynolds’ success, it was Duran who was the standout non-MVP candidate at the plate in June. The Red Sox outfielder is on track to earn his first All-Star selection this season, serving as Boston’s most reliable hitter with team-leading totals in hits (99) and runs (57).
Over the past month, he has played 25 games and had a batting average of .365, an on-base percentage of .420, and a slugging percentage of .636. He accumulated a total of 80 hits, runs, and RBIs, averaging 3.2 per game. He has continued to perform well, hitting home runs in three consecutive games, including one on Tuesday in Miami.
Do we honestly believe that the struggling Marlins will be the ones to defeat him? I highly doubt that Trevor Rogers, with his 4.87 ERA, will be able to stop Duran. Rogers, who is 26 years old, has a variety of pitches at his disposal, including a four-seamer, sinker, changeup, and slider. However, Duran has shown that he can hit all of these pitches effectively.
Duran has a slugging percentage of .522 or higher against all four pitches, with a batting average over .400 against sinkers and changeups this season. These are his most successful pitches to hit, leading to a 55.56% chance of this proposition being successful. A $10 bet would result in an $8 profit if won.
Top odds: -125 on bet365
Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 home run ⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 0.5 (+270) | Over 0.5 (+310) | Over 0.5 (+280) | Over 0.5 (+285) | Over 0.5 (+270) |
Astros will be playing against Blue Jays with the Moneyline set at Astros (-115) by bet365. The Total is at Over 8.5 (-110) or Under 8.5 (-110) by bet365. The game will start at 7:07 p.m. ET.
Similar to Tuesday, where I successfully predicted Pete Alonso hitting a home run (not to brag), I suggest placing only half a unit on this home run prop due to the high odds. Despite the long odds, I am confident in Alvarez’s chances in this matchup.
The Astros’ power hitter has been on fire in the early days of July, hitting home runs in consecutive games against the Blue Jays and driving in five runs in the series. While I would typically hesitate to predict a third straight game with a home run, the key factor here is the pitcher matchup.
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Toronto is sending Yusei Kikuchi to the mound, who has allowed 12 home runs in 17 starts this season, with five of them coming in his last three outings. He is currently going through his toughest stretch of the season, while facing Alvarez who has been performing exceptionally well. In June, the Astros star had a slash line of .349/.430/.709 and has been especially dominant against left-handed pitchers like Kikuchi.
The Blue Jays starter relies heavily on his four-seamer (47.8%), and 10 out of Alvarez’s 18 home runs this season have been hit off fastballs. While this may only suggest a 24.39% chance of success, it could result in a $15.50 profit on a $5 bet.
Top odds: +310 on FanDuel
Carlos Correa Over 1.5 hits ⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 1.5 (+190) | Over 1.5 (+145) | OFF | Over 1.5 (+184) | Over 1.5 (+200) |
Information for the game between the Tigers and Twins includes the moneyline favoring the Twins at -170 according to bet365, with the total set at Over 9 (-105) or Under 9 (-115) also from bet365. The game is scheduled to start at 8:10 p.m. ET.
I am betting against Tigers’ rookie Keider Montero today, who has the highest ERA this season. The 23-year-old has had a strange beginning to his career, being called up sporadically only to struggle and be sent back down to the Toledo Mud Hens, where he holds a 5.03 ERA.
He has nearly doubled his AAA ERA in the majors, posting a 9.35 ERA in two starts. In those games, he has given up 10 hits, nine earned runs, and three home runs in 8 2/3 innings. Given Correa’s strong hitting for the Twins, Montero may continue to struggle.
In June, the two-time All-Star had an impressive slash line of .388/.441/.582 with 38 hits in 25 games. He continued his strong performance into July with a home run against the Tigers last night. He is expected to maintain his hitting streak against Montero, who relies heavily on his four-seamer (43.6%) and slider (34.8%). Correa has had success against both pitches, batting .339 or higher with a slugging percentage over .528.
With 12 multi-hit games in his last 23 outings, he has a 52.2% chance of winning. These odds are incredibly favorable, as they only imply a 33.33% win probability but pay out a $20 profit on a $10 winning bet.
Top chances: +200 on bet365
MLB player props were set on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
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- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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