Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl Player Prop Predictions, Odds: MVP on the Way?
We have selected our top Patrick Mahomes player prop predictions for the upcoming Super Bowl matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers, based on the latest NFL odds from our trusted Super Bowl betting sites.
Despite a less successful season for the Kansas City Chiefs, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have led the team to their fourth Super Bowl appearance in the last five years, facing off against the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV.
Although the 49ers are favored in the latest Super Bowl odds, Mahomes is the front-runner in our Super Bowl MVP odds and is ready to dismantle a San Francisco 49ers defense that has had inconsistent results recently.
As we analyzed Mahomes’ Super Bowl performances, it is evident that this current offense may not be the strongest he has been a part of. However, he is undeniably playing at the peak of his career as he strives to surpass Tom Brady and solidify his legacy as the greatest of all time.
Here are our top Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl player prop bets for Chiefs vs. 49ers, in addition to our predictions for the game and other Super Bowl prop bets. Odds are sourced from our recommended NFL betting sites, with confidence levels rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.
Patrick Mahomes player props: 2024 Super Bowl
- Patrick Mahomes 3+ passing touchdowns (+240 via FanDuel, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes 5+ rush attempts (-120 via BetMGM, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes 40+ pass attempts (+160 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
This product is not meant to be used in Massachusetts. Please note that Underscoreg Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook.
Patrick Mahomes player prop predictions
Patrick Mahomes 3+ passing touchdowns (+240 via FanDuel, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Click here to get a hassle-free 3+ leg NFL Same Game Parlay for the Kansas City vs. San Francisco game on FanDuel!
Despite a decrease in his statistical performance, Patrick Mahomes still managed to finish eighth in the NFL in touchdown passes with 27 in 16 games. Although he only had two games this season with three or more touchdown passes, he has achieved this feat eight times in his 17 career postseason games, including during last year’s Super Bowl victory against the Philadelphia Eagles.
In postseason football, Mahomes has shown his ability to excel with 39 touchdown passes and only seven interceptions in his playoff career. Additionally, the 49ers defense has struggled since Week 16, ranking 18th in EPA per dropback.
Mahomes’ performance suffered due to subpar play from his receivers and the Chiefs relying heavily on their running game. Despite finishing 10th in EPA per play and 13th in CPOE, Mahomes has stepped up his game during the playoffs and down the stretch of the season.
In his past four games since Week 17, he ranks sixth in EPA per play and third in CPOE, with Rashee Rice stepping up as his top wide receiver. Mahomes ended the regular season as the third-ranked QB in total EPA and is currently leading by a significant margin in the playoffs.
We are keeping a close eye on Mahomes’ passing touchdowns line, which is set at 1.5 at our top sports betting sites. We are exploring alternative lines, with FanDuel and bet365 offering the best value. Caesars also has a tempting offer of Mahomes throwing 3+ touchdown passes at a decent +210 odds.
Check out our player props comparing Purdy and Mahomes to see if you think Mahomes will outperform the 49ers QB.
Only new customers are eligible for this offer. You must deposit a minimum of $5 and place your first bet of $5 or more. If your bet wins within 72 hours, you will receive $200 in Bonus Bets.
Elevate your 2024 Super Bowl celebration with SBR!
Join Underscoreg Review’s free Swiftie Bingo Challenge for a chance to win a $500 Amazon gift card. Print out our Super Bowl prop bet sheet and Bingo cards to compete with friends and colleagues. Keep your party guests entertained throughout the game with Super Bowl Squares.
Patrick Mahomes 5+ rush attempts (-120 via BetMGM, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Although Mahomes isn’t typically recognized for his running skills, he proved to be one of the most effective scramblers this season. Despite ranking eighth in QBR (63.0) in the NFL, he was only behind Josh Allen and Joshua Dobbs in clutch-weighted expected points added through runs. This season, he demonstrated the importance of tucking and scrambling by achieving career highs in rushing yards (389) and rush attempts (75).
Throughout the regular season, Mahomes maintained an average of 4.7 rush attempts per game, and his propensity to scramble has extended into the playoffs. In the current postseason, he has accumulated 14 rush attempts over three games, with six attempts in each of his last two matchups.
He has averaged 4.8 rush attempts per game in 17 career playoff games and has had at least five rush attempts nine times. The 49ers had the eighth most rush attempts by QBs during the regular season, with opposing quarterbacks averaging 5.1 attempts per game.
BetMGM and bet365 are offering Mahomes 5+ rush attempts or Over 4.5 rush attempts at -120, making it the top price available on our list of best sports betting apps.
Make sure to review our comprehensive analysis of this market in our rushing props.
Bonus bets must be used within 7 days. This offer is valid for new customers only. Please refer to additional terms and conditions for more information.
Patrick Mahomes 40+ pass attempts (+160 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Because of the underperformance of the Kansas City Chiefs’ pass catchers this season, Andy Reid adjusted his offensive strategy to rely more heavily on the ground game. As a result, Patrick Mahomes recorded a career-low average of 261.4 passing yards per game, yet still managed to finish sixth in the league in passing yards with 4,183 and third in pass attempts with 597.
Despite the Chiefs trying to reduce the burden on Mahomes, he still averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game in the regular season and threw at least 40 passes in seven out of 16 games. This pass-heavy strategy has carried over into the playoffs, with Mahomes averaging 34.3 attempts per game, although this average was brought down by a lower number of attempts against the Buffalo Bills. Throughout his postseason career, Coach Reid has consistently allowed Mahomes to throw the ball, with the quarterback averaging 36.8 pass attempts in 17 playoff games and surpassing 40 passes in six of those games.
Only bet365 has set the pass attempts milestone line at 40+. The total pass attempts line at our other top betting sites is 36.5, with the Over priced between -121 to -130. Taking the Over for three more attempts at +160 offers great value that shouldn’t be missed.
In addition, we analyze Mahomes’ prospects in the completions market within our passing props.
Player prop picks for Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl were made on Friday at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Super Bowl betting odds pages
Make sure to check out our Super Bowl betting promotions and all of our other NFL futures.
Here are our best Super Bowl betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21 years and older. If you have a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER)* Bonuses are not valid in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Underscoreg Promos (U.S. only)
Related Articles
