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Paul vs. Diaz Picks, Odds & Predictions: Problem Child to Avoid the Stockton Slap

Ramirez Madeline

Updated as of August 5, 2023 at 4:13 PM EDT • Read time: 2 minutes and 35 seconds. Find more information on Twitter and Google News.

Jake Paul reacts in our Paul vs. Diaz odds.
Jake Paul reacts during a Jake Paul v Anderson Silva press conference at NeueHouse Hollywood on Sept. 12, 2022 in Hollywood, California. Harry How/Getty Images/AFP

Jake Paul’s journey in professional boxing is set to continue this Saturday night as he faces off against UFC fan favorite Nate Diaz. Keep reading for our predictions and picks for the Paul vs. Diaz fight.

Jake Paul has discovered the secret to winning boxing matches.

The YouTube sensation has built a thriving boxing career by defeating older MMA fighters looking for a lucrative payday. By triumphing over Ben Askren, Tyron Woodley, and Anderson Silva, Paul has strategically chosen veterans past their prime but still recognizable in the world of mixed martial arts. This tactic has proven to be successful for him so far.

Enter: Nate Diaz.

Diaz, a native of Stockton, achieved an impressive UFC career by consistently ranking in the top 10 in both the welterweight and lightweight divisions.

Diaz, already a familiar name in the industry, saw his fame soar after he defeated Conor McGregor in a memorable match at UFC 196 in 2016. Following this victory, Diaz concluded his UFC career by defeating Tony Ferguson at UFC 279, and then announced his move into the world of boxing.

Will Diaz be one of Paul’s regulars, or will the Cesar Gracie product hit Paul with a “Stockton Slap”?

Check out our top picks for the Paul vs. Diaz fight on Saturday, Aug. 5th, with odds from our favorite sports betting apps. Our confidence level is rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

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Paul vs. Diaz pick

Paul to win by decision or technical decision (+350 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Diaz is a true warrior. While both men may appear to be fighters, Diaz is not a boxer. Diaz is a fighter through and through. In an MMA match, I believe Diaz would dominate Paul, as he excels at grappling and has a talent for submitting opponents (12 submissions in 21 career wins). However, in this particular bout, Diaz is at a disadvantage as he won’t be able to take the fight to the ground.

Diaz is a solid MMA boxer, but MMA boxing presents unique challenges. Paul has focused on boxing for years and is younger and larger than Diaz. I anticipate Paul landing powerful shots and using his size advantage to tire Diaz out in the clinch as the fight goes on.

With that being said, I doubt Diaz will be knocked out. He has a strong chin and has shown great resilience in his 34 fights, only being stopped by TKO/KO twice (one of which was due to cuts leading to a doctor’s stoppage). He is tough as nails, so while I don’t think he will win, I do believe he will make it to the end and hear the judge’s decision.

Paul vs. Diaz best odds

DraftKings (+350)

DraftKingsFanDuelBet365BetMGMPointsBet
Paul by DecisionPaul by DecisionPaul by DecisionPaul by DecisionPaul by Decision
+350+300+275+350+290

“The odds heavily favor ‘The Problem Child’ in the Paul vs. Diaz matchup, making a straight-up bet on him not very valuable unless included in a parlay. Instead, consider betting on a prop or specific finish for a better chance at a payout.”

I predict Paul will come out victorious, but I doubt he will completely dominate Diaz. Therefore, it would be wise to place your bet on Paul winning by decision at DraftKings with odds of +350.

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Diaz vs. Paul fight info

  • Date: Saturday, August 5, 2023
  • TV: DAZN PPV
  • Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas TX

The Diaz-Paul selection was finalized on 3/8/2023 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

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Written By:
Ramirez Madeline
A sportswriter for more than a decade, Ramirez Madeline was once voted “World’s 78th Greatest Lover” by ‘Relatively Attractive People Magazine’.* After covering nearly every sport under the sun for theScore, Smith settled in as head MMA writer where he helped shape the company’s coverage and establish its combat sports identity. Since then, he’s dipped his toes (cannonballed) into the world of betting, where he specializes in the UFC and NHL. Constantly chasing that gigantic Parlay Dragon, Smith was devastated when a Leon Edwards head kick completely obliterated a recent five-leg parlay. You can read his rantings and ravings on Twitter @Heldrificus. *Not a real publication.