Texas vs. Washington Prediction, Pick & Odds for CFP: Sugar Bowl

Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. of the Washington Huskies passes the ball for a touchdown during the first quarter against the Oregon State Beavers as we look at our Texas-Washington prediction. — Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. of the Washington Huskies passes the ball for a touchdown during the first quarter against the Oregon State Beavers. Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images/AFP.

The Washington Huskies and Texas Longhorns have a chance to make history by advancing to their first national championship in decades. Our prediction for the Sugar Bowl matchup between Texas and Washington is based on the most favorable college football odds available at betting sites.

Last year, the Washington Huskies won an exciting Alamo Bowl against the Texas Longhorns with a touchdown victory. Now, the Longhorns are favored in a highly anticipated rematch at Monday’s Sugar Bowl, the second game of the College Football Playoff semifinals.

During his three years at Texas (12-1), head coach Steve Sarkisian has built an impressive resume in college football, highlighted by a notable win against Alabama earlier this year. Following a tough loss to the Oklahoma Sooners in Week 6, the Longhorns bounced back with seven consecutive victories. The winning streak culminated in a dominant 49-21 victory over a ranked Oklahoma State team in the Big 12 final.

Kalen DeBoer has been leading Washington to new heights, guiding them to a 13-0 record for the first time in history. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has been instrumental in the team’s success, throwing for 4,218 yards and 33 touchdowns, which earned him a second-place finish in the Heisman Trophy voting.

As we make our New Year’s Six predictions and analyze college bowl game odds, here is our top Texas vs. Washington forecast and our picks for Monday’s Sugar Bowl in the College Football Playoff. Our selections are based on odds from the top college football betting sites and confidence levels rated on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Don’t forget to check out our expert picks, player props, and best bets for the College Football Playoff.

Texas vs. Washington prediction: Sugar Bowl (College Football Playoff)

Washington +4.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While I am confident in my Alabama vs. Michigan prediction, I am not as enthusiastic about this pick. I gave the former five stars, but this one only receives a four-star endorsement. However, I still believe Washington will win this game for several reasons.

There is no doubt about it: Texas made a strong comeback this year, with QB Quinn Ewers playing a crucial role in the team’s success. Despite a challenging freshman season, the former top prospect bounced back in his sophomore year, throwing for 3,161 yards and 21 touchdowns. Ewers led Texas to victory in 10 out of 11 games in which he started.

However, in his last seven games, he turned the ball over seven times and recently recovered from an injury that caused him to miss two starts. Additionally, the team faced setbacks as their top rusher Jonathon Brooks was out for the season after rushing for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns, and star wide receiver Xavier Worthy suffered an ankle injury during the Big-12 title game.

Worthy is anticipated to return for the Sugar Bowl, where he will have a challenging matchup against Huskies cornerback Jabbar Muhammad. Muhammad, who stepped up late in the season, played a key role in shutting down Oregon star Troy Franklin (holding him to just 34 yards) in the Pac-12 Championship game. Franklin is considered a potential first-round talent.

Washington’s defense may not look impressive on paper, but facing a tough Pac-12 schedule filled with talented NFL-caliber quarterbacks didn’t make it any easier. Despite this, the Huskies still performed well in limiting explosive plays and generating turnovers in the secondary, thanks in large part to Muhammad’s standout performance with 3 interceptions and 10 pass breakups. It will be interesting to see how they match up against the relatively inexperienced Ewers in what could be the biggest game of his career.

In my opinion, the most significant mismatch is between Penix and the struggling Texas secondary. The Texas defense ranked 86th in preventing explosive pass plays and 93rd in total passing yards allowed per game (240.8), making them particularly vulnerable to Penix’s passing abilities.

This poses a significant challenge for one of the top deep passers in the nation, who has a strong bond with NFL-bound receiver Rome Odunze (1,428 yards, 13 TDs) and leads the most productive passing offense in the country. The absence of safety Derek Williams Jr. in the first half due to a targeting ejection in the Big-12 title game only adds to the team’s difficulties.

The Longhorns’ defensive line, led by future pros Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat, is regarded as the top unit on the field. Expect them to make impactful plays during Monday’s game, and if Texas comes out on top, one of them is likely to be the key player in the victory.

However, the Washington offensive line has emerged as one of the best units in the country, excelling in both pass protection and the run game. This improvement has allowed top rusher Dillon Johnson (1,113 yards, 14 TDs) to thrive, averaging 136.6 yards in his final five games.

Washington’s ability to win in various ways allowed them to maintain a perfect 13-0 record, despite several close games. While some doubted the Huskies due to their narrow margins of victory, I witnessed them hold their own against Oregon, a team widely regarded as one of the best in the nation on offense and defense.

While Sarkisian deserves credit for Texas’ resurgence, facing a DeBoer-coached team with a month to prepare could be a challenge. I see value in the moneyline bet at +158 on bet365 and am also considering the +4.5 spread at FanDuel.

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Texas vs. Washington best odds

FanDuel (-115)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
Washington +4	Washington +4.5	Washington +4	Washington +4	Washington +4
-110	-115	-110	-110	-110

Four out of the top five sports betting sites have the Huskies listed as 4-point underdogs for Monday’s Sugar Bowl. However, one site is offering Washington at +4.5, which is the most favorable odds available since the game was first posted.

This book, FanDuel, is often seen as an exception among others. I would suggest looking into our top sportsbook promotions to find the best bonus offer from FanDuel or another book.

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Texas vs. Washington odds

Texas vs. Washington odds analysis

The game started with the Longhorns as the favorites by 3.5 to 4.5 points on our top sports betting apps, but the line has since stabilized at 4 in most stores. We are focusing on the outlier +4.5 at FanDuel, which seems like an excellent value for one of the few undefeated teams in the country.

The initial total was set at 62.5, but it has since been adjusted to a popular 63.5 at most of our top sportsbooks. The exception is FanDuel, which is sticking with a line of 62.5. We suggest starting your search for the best price at FanDuel.

College Football Playoff – Sugar Bowl game info

When: Monday, Jan. 1 at 8:45 p.m. ET
Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
How to watch: ESPN
Weather: Indoors

Prediction for Texas-Washington made at 11:30 p.m. ET on Thursday.

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Written By:
Morgan Xaviero

Morgan Xaviero is a publishing editor and lead writer for Underscoreg Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, “C-Jax” has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Underscoreg Review team. He’s a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels’ championship run through the NCAA men’s basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he’s played a key role in Underscoreg Review’s coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he’s cashed some big bets over the years — including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) — he’s still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed “process over results” bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He’s written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn’t forgiven his “inside source” for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.