Alabama vs. Michigan Prediction, Pick & Odds for College Football Playoff: Rose Bowl
The College Football Playoff matchup between the Michigan Wolverines and Alabama Crimson Tide is a highly anticipated heavyweight clash. Our prediction for the Rose Bowl leans towards Alabama, as they are favored in a rare underdog position according to the best college football odds at betting sites.
Last season, the Michigan Wolverines (13-0) had a flawless record going into the College Football Playoff, but suffered an unexpected loss to TCU. In the upcoming Rose Bowl on Monday, they will try to avoid a similar upset as they take on the Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1), who have won six out of the last 14 College Football Championships.
Alabama nearly missed out on the four-team field this year, but a crucial victory over top-ranked Georgia in the SEC Championship secured their spot in the playoffs for the eighth time in the College Football Playoff’s 10-year history. They are currently seen as underdogs at top college football betting sites, marking only the fifth time in 195 games dating back to 2010.
The Wolverines are looking to forget about their defeat in the Fiesta Bowl last year against the Horned Frogs, who didn’t perform well in the title game. They are determined to prove that Michigan’s 13-0 season was not a fluke, despite the sign-stealing scandal hanging over head coach Jim Harbaugh and his staff.
In our analysis of college bowl game odds, we present our top prediction for the Alabama vs. Michigan matchup in the Rose Bowl on Monday in the College Football Playoff. Our college football picks are based on odds from reputable betting sites, with pick confidence rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.
Make sure to check out our expert picks for the College Football Playoff and player props for the College Football Playoff as well.
Alabama vs. Michigan prediction: Rose Bowl (College Football Playoff)
Alabama +1.5 (-105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Alabama’s chances of making it to the final College Football Playoff were slim a few weeks before the reveal, with their loss to Texas in September making it seem like a Hail Mary was needed for them to secure a spot.
Therefore, the Crimson Tide pulled off an incredible 4th-and-goal play to defeat rival Auburn, ended Georgia’s 29-game win streak in a game played on the road, and secured the last playoff spot over undefeated Florida State, causing a frenzy in the college football world.
Despite the widespread criticism of the committee’s decision, it was ultimately the correct choice. This team is widely considered to be the strongest in college football and is expected to emerge victorious on Monday.
QB Jalen Milroe, who threw an impressive 31-yard pass against Auburn, has shown significant improvement since being benched in September.
Since November 1st, the impressive sophomore has been averaging 285.4 yards per game with a total of 17 touchdowns and only one interception. He finished sixth in the Heisman Trophy voting, surpassing Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy who came in 10th. He led Alabama to victory in his last 10 games.
Despite having the best scoring defense in the nation at 9.5 points per game, the Wolverines struggled to prevent explosive passing plays and ranked outside the top 40 in that category. This could be a major issue when facing Milroe, who is considered one of the best deep-ball throwers in college football. (That pass against Auburn was impressive, to say the least.)
Michigan’s defense excelled as a result of facing weaker offenses in the Big Ten, allowing the Wolverines to establish early leads and utilize their star rushers Blake Corum (1,028 yards, 24 TDs) and Donovan Edwards (382 yards, 3 TDs) effectively.
However, both of those running backs did not average 5.0 yards per game, and the offense as a whole is ranked in the bottom 20 nationally in explosiveness. It is concerning to think about what will happen when they go up against an Alabama defense that limited Georgia to 78 yards on 31 carries (2.5 yards per carry) in the SEC title game.
I doubt that McCarthy can lead Michigan to victory through passing if they can’t stick to their schedule. Despite performing well against weaker teams earlier in the season, the junior quarterback’s yards per attempt decreased as the season went on. He has only thrown one touchdown since October and averaged just 124 yards in his last four games of the season.
His rushing abilities have significantly decreased due to a leg injury, which has affected his effectiveness as an athletic passer. He will now be up against a formidable ‘Bama defense, featuring two All-American cornerbacks in Kool-Aid McKinstry and Terrion Arnold, as well as edge rusher Dallas Turner, who has the potential to disrupt the game. Adding to the challenge is a Michigan offensive line that is without its top player, Zak Zinter, who is sidelined with a leg injury.
We need to acknowledge the obvious issue at hand: Alabama is improving, but Michigan has not been performing as well since analyst Connor Stalions, who was involved in the sign-stealing scandal, resigned. The team no longer looks like the dominant force it once was, and it’s unclear if this is due to the scandal or the negative impact it has had on the program. The results are evident and concerning.
It’s difficult to overlook Harbaugh’s track record in situations like this. Michigan has a 1-7-2 ATS record in their last 10 bowl games, while Nick Saban’s Alabama team has won at least one postseason game in eight consecutive years and 12 out of the last 14. Alabama has also posted a 13-2 ATS record in their last 15 games with multiple weeks to prepare.
Alabama has encountered a challenging schedule this season and boasts the most skilled team in the nation, including a standout quarterback who has been performing exceptionally well. Additionally, the team has not been considered an underdog against a non-SEC school for 15 years.
I have only given one bowl game bet a five-star rating so far: West Virginia -6.5 vs. North Carolina (WVU won by 20). This pick also deserves a five-star recommendation. The Crimson Tide seems to be undervalued in this spot, and I will definitely be capitalizing on it.
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Alabama vs. Michigan best odds
FanDuel (-105)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama +1.5 | Alabama +1.5 | Alabama +1.5 | Alabama +1.5 | Alabama +1.5 |
| -110 | -105 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
This line is quite sharp, typical of the College Football Playoff, where all five of our top sports betting sites have Alabama listed as a 1.5-point underdog.
Luckily, FanDuel, a book known for taking unconventional positions, is offering the same number with -105 odds. It’s always good to save where you can, but I suggest looking at our top sportsbook promotions to find books with bigger bonuses.
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Alabama vs. Michigan odds
Alabama vs. Michigan odds analysis
The Wolverines initially started as 2.5-point favorites but the line quickly adjusted to Michigan -1.5. This is the current line on our top sports betting apps. Any additional line movement is expected to be in favor of the underdogs, who are likely to attract more moneyline bets as the game approaches kickoff.
There has been minimal change in the total, with only a slight adjustment from the initial 45.5 to the current consensus of 45 in four out of five top sportsbooks. The exception is FanDuel, who have lowered the total to 44.5.
College Football Playoff – Rose Bowl game info
- When: Monday, Jan. 1 at 5 p.m. ET
- Where: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 60 degrees, 0% precipitation, 3-mph winds
Prediction for the Alabama-Michigan game was made on Thursday at 8:45 p.m. ET.
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