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College Football Player Props & Best Bets, Odds for New Year’s Day: Top CFP Predictions

Allen Byron

Updated on January 1, 2026 at 3:38 PM EST. Read time: 4 minutes and 58 seconds. Find more information on Twitter and Google News.

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College football best bets

On New Year’s Day, five college football bowl games will take place, but all eyes will be on the late College Football Playoff matchups. We provide our top player props and favorite bets for Monday’s CFP bowl games, taking into account the best NCAAF odds available.

The controversy surrounding the College Football Playoff matchups started when Florida State, the first undefeated Power Five conference champion, was not included in the lineup.

On the other hand, replacing the Seminoles with Alabama will make for an exciting matchup as the Crimson Tide face off against the top-ranked Michigan Wolverines. Alabama is aiming to kick off the journey for an SEC team to secure the national championship for the fifth consecutive season.

In the upcoming game, either Texas or Washington will earn their first win in the College Football Playoff, leading to an exciting showdown between two of the nation’s top 10 offenses in total yardage.

In our examination of college bowl game odds, we present our college football player props and top bets for Monday’s College Football Playoff games. These odds are sourced from our preferred college football betting sites, and our confidence in each pick is rated on a scale of one to five stars.

College Football Playoff best bets for Monday

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College Football Playoff schedule and odds for Monday

(Odds via DraftKings)

College Football Playoff player props picks for Monday

J.J. McCarthy Under 189.5 passing yards vs. Alabama (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

We are very confident in Alabama’s defense’s ability to limit McCarthy to one or fewer passing touchdowns. The odds for this outcome are so strongly in our favor (DraftKings has -200 odds for the Under of 1.5 passing touchdowns) that we had to look elsewhere to bet against McCarthy.

Therefore, we are rating the Under on his passing yards as a three-star play because he has not reached this total in the past month, with his highest passing yards being 148 in the team’s last four games.

It appears that McCarthy’s decline has coincided with the departure of Michigan football analyst Connor Stalion. Before Stalion’s resignation, McCarthy had impressive stats, completing 78.1% of his passes, averaging 225 passing yards per game, and posting an 18-3 TD-INT ratio in eight games. However, in the five games following Stalion’s resignation, McCarthy’s performance has dipped, with a completion rate of 68.6%, an average of 166 passing yards per game, and a 1-1 TD-INT ratio.

Receiver Roman Wilson, who leads the team in receptions, has only caught one pass in two out of the last three games. Additionally, the Crimson Tide defense ranks 12th in the country with 38 sacks, further contributing to an unproductive day for McCarthy.

DraftKings and bet365 provide the most competitive prices among our top sports betting apps for an O/U of 189.5 (originally set at 190.5). FanDuel, on the other hand, offers a lower number at 185.5.

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Adonia Mitchell Over 60.5 receiving yards vs. Washington (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Adonai Mitchell of Texas is currently ranked second on the team in both receptions and receiving yards. With recent injuries to two of the Longhorns’ key offensive players, it is expected that Mitchell will have a standout performance in the upcoming semifinals.

Jonathan Brooks, Texas’s top rusher, has been sidelined for the past three games due to an ACL tear. In his absence, backup running back CJ Baxter has struggled to fill the void, managing just 88 yards on 22 carries in two starts, with only one 100-yard rushing game against Iowa State.

Therefore, it is anticipated that head coach Steve Sarkisian will focus on exploiting his former team’s 121st-ranked pass defense by utilizing the passing game extensively. However, Mitchell may emerge as the main target in the passing game due to leading receiver Xavier Worthy revealing that his ankle is not fully recovered.

Mitchell had over 61 yards receiving in three out of the team’s last five games. In the remaining two games, quarterback Quinn Ewers only attempted 26 passes, his lowest in the last seven games, during a 57-7 blowout against Texas Tech.

We anticipate a more competitive matchup with Washington, as they have given up 61 or more receiving yards to seven different receivers in games against AP-ranked teams this year. It is worth noting that only Oregon and USC, both with stronger passing offenses than Texas, were able to achieve this feat.

All of our top sports betting sites have the same Over/Under line of 60.5, but FanDuel offers the best value with the lowest price. The odds for betting the Over are as high as -117 at Caesars.

College Football Playoff game picks for Monday

Alabama-Michigan Under 45 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We are hesitant to support the Crimson Tide due to the overwhelming support they have received from the general public in terms of point spreads. Nevertheless, we anticipate a defensive showdown leading to a low-scoring game.

Despite scoring 27 points against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, Alabama struggled to convert on third downs, only managing to convert 3 out of 13 attempts. Additionally, they averaged just 2.8 yards per carry against a Bulldogs defense that was ranked 88th in rushing explosiveness prior to the game.

Whenever Nick Saban is given adequate time to prepare, he typically formulates an exceptional defensive strategy. In the last six playoff games played by the Crimson Tide, they have limited their opponents to seven or fewer points in four of the semifinal matchups.

Michigan’s offense, which was ranked 37th in rush success and 57th in line yards, will need to open up running lanes for Blake Corum & Co. in order to avoid relying on the passing game against a formidable defense with potentially four future first-round NFL draft picks.

Supporters can select from a variety of top sportsbooks, with FanDuel being the only one offering an O/U slightly lower at 44.5.

Washington team total Under 29.5 vs. Texas (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Despite being a 9.5-point underdog, Washington defied expectations by defeating Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship to secure a spot in the playoffs. While we acknowledge the talent of Heisman runner-up Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies’ strong passing game, Washington has yet to face a defensive front as formidable as Texas’s this season. We anticipate that Texas’s defense will be a major factor in the upcoming game.

Texas has the ability to stop Washington’s running game, as they have the best yards per carry defense in Division I when it comes to tackles between the tackles. Furthermore, the Longhorns are ranked in the top five for red-zone defense and the top two for third-down defense.

Despite Texas having the 95th-ranked secondary, its defense may not be as easily exploited as some believe. College Football Nerds noted that the Longhorns faced a lot of passing due to their strong run defense. Despite playing two top-10 passing offenses, Texas ranks 31st in yards per attempt and 15th in opponent-adjusted yards per attempt.

The Under has been successful in eight out of the Longhorns’ 12 games this season and Washington has a 6-0 record in their last six neutral-site games. As a result, we anticipate that the Texas defense will contribute to maintaining these trends.

Caesars and bet365 have a juice of -125 or higher for team totals of 30.5 points or more, making us lean towards FanDuel and DraftKings with their -115 odds for betting on the Huskies’ team total Under of 29.5.

The top college football bets were placed on Saturday at 10:32 a.m. ET.

Editor’s note: Prepare for the debut of sports betting in Vermont with our top Vermont sportsbook promotions, and don’t forget to download the best Vermont sports betting apps! Must be 21 or older and located in VT. If you have a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Check out our best college football betting sites:

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Written By:
Allen Byron
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he’s especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike’s a big advocate of “fading the public” and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that “there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas.” When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He’s tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”