Super Bowl Long-Shot Bets, Odds 2024: Bold Predictions for Chiefs vs. 49ers
We are showcasing our top risky bets and daring forecasts for the Chiefs vs. 49ers Super Bowl 2024 utilizing the most favorable NFL odds from our recommended Super Bowl betting websites.
There are countless ways to approach the multitude of Super Bowl prop bet options for the upcoming Big Game featuring the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers.
One exciting strategy to consider for your Super Bowl predictions is incorporating some long-shot bets, especially if they are backed by a solid strategy. That’s where we come in, as we have extensively researched all available markets from top NFL betting sites to highlight the most compelling long-shot options for Super Bowl 58.
Apart from our Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction, we have compiled our top bold predictions for Super Bowl 2024 based on the most favorable NFL odds from reputable sports betting sites. For those seeking higher potential payouts, be sure to explore our top Super Bowl parlays as well.
Best Super Bowl 2024 long shot predictions
Check out our list of 10 underdog bets with potential value for Super Bowl 58 between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, along with a more detailed analysis of some of our top picks.
Just to clarify, I want to make it clear that I am not guaranteeing any of these bets will be successful. However, I am personally placing wagers on each bet mentioned in the table below. I have also provided a link for you to place the bet yourself, along with the implied probability calculated by our odds converter.
| Long-shot bet | Betting odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Juszczyk 1st reception | +3000 via DraftKings | 3.23% |
| Noah Gray 1st to 30 receiving yards | +3500 via DraftKings | 2.78% |
| Elijah Mitchell fastest ball-carrier | +4000 via FanDuel | 2.44% |
| Elijah Mitchell longest rush of game | +6000 via DraftKings | 1.64% |
| Kadarius Toney longest reception of game | +7500 via DraftKings | 1.32% |
| Mecole Hardman most air yards on reception | +8000 via FanDuel | 1.23% |
| Elijah Mitchell most rushing yards | +10000 via BetMGM | 0.99% |
| Nick Bosa to win MVP | +12500 via BetMGM | 0.79% |
| Noah Gray most receiving yards | +17000 via FanDuel | 0.58% |
| Trent McDuffie wins MVP | +60000 via FanDuel | 0.17% |
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Super Bowl bold predictions
Kyle Juszczyk 1st reception
Top odds: +3000 on DraftKings
While this bet may not have the longest odds compared to other bold predictions, it offers great value in relation to the market. There is a strong possibility that it could result in a winning payout on Super Bowl Sunday.
Juszczyk may be primarily recognized as the spouse of Taylor Swift’s preferred tailor, whose creations are highlighted in our Taylor Swift Super Bowl prop bets. However, the eight-time Pro Bowl fullback continues to play a crucial role in the most effective offense in the league at this stage of his career.
Juszczyk is listed with odds ranging from +900 to +1200 on our NFL prop betting platforms to make the 49ers’ initial reception, a feat he came close to achieving in the previous week’s NFC Championship game when he was the first target of 49ers QB Brock Purdy. Additionally, he made three catches in Super Bowl LIV and scored the first touchdown for his team.
Shanahan is confident in using his 235-pound fullback and he is also listed at +1000 on BetMGM to score a touchdown. For those who are willing to take a risk, betting on Juszczyk to make the game’s first rush (+9000 on DraftKings) and first down (+3500 on DraftKings) could be enticing, but the best value lies in betting on him to score a touchdown.
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Elijah Mitchell longest rush of game
DraftKings offers the best odds at +6000.
Mitchel is a risky choice in a game like this, as he is considered a long-shot target. The odds are not in his favor, with sportsbooks setting his rushing attempts at over/under 1.5. However, if he does get a chance to play, he could surprise everyone.
The sixth-round pick was a standout in the offense during his rookie year in 2021, rushing for 963 yards on 4.7 yards per carry. His impressive average of 6.2 yards per carry would have been among the league leaders in 2022 if he had not been injured. However, his role has been significantly reduced in 2023, leading to his current long odds.
Despite Christian McCaffrey briefly leaving the NFC Championship game due to a shoulder injury, the third-year back managed to score a touchdown in his absence. While it seems likely that McCaffrey will be healthy and play on Sunday, there are concerns about whether he will receive his usual workload.
Mitchell possesses elite speed, clocking in at 4.32 seconds in the 40-yard dash. With his potential to break away for a big play, I see great value in betting on him to lead the game in rushing yards. Despite odds of +10000 at BetMGM (compared to +3000 elsewhere), this wager could pay off with just one explosive run, although it may require a Christian McCaffrey injury for Mitchell to reach the top spot.
Kadarius Toney longest reception of game
Top odds: +7500 on DraftKings
Note from the editor: According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Toney is unlikely to participate in the Super Bowl.
Do you recall when I mentioned that these odds are unlikely for a purpose? It is clear with Toney, who has become the symbol of the Chiefs’ struggles at receiver this season and is currently in a public dispute with his employer regarding his injury status.
Therefore, our top live betting platforms are providing favorable odds on Toney for various outcomes on Sunday. It is important to remember that Toney, a former first-round pick, scored the decisive touchdown in Super Bowl 57 and is considered the most skilled receiver on Kansas City’s team, particularly as a deep threat.
This wager is particularly enticing because if Toney makes just one big play, he could potentially win the long-shot bet. While you could also place a bet on him finishing with the most receiving yards (+4000 via DraftKings), the first option seems like a more valuable choice.
Nick Bosa to win Super Bowl MVP
Top chances: +12500 at BetMGM
There is no need to argue for Bosa to win MVP, as he is already a top choice in the market and his odds for Super Bowl MVP have decreased as the game approaches.
The player, who was a top-three pick in the past, won the NFL Defensive Player of the Year just a year ago. During the Super Bowl in 2020, he managed to secure a sack and a forced fumble. In the NFC Championship, he recorded two sacks, showcasing his potential to excel against the Chiefs’ weakened offensive line due to injuries.
I am intrigued by the unlikely odds of Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones winning MVP (+15000 via BetMGM), but his dominating performance in Super Bowl LIV was overshadowed by Mahomes winning the award. If Bosa can play like the game-changer he is and contribute to a 49ers victory in this rematch, he may receive recognition for containing Mahomes. Bosa has a strong chance of winning the MVP award and should be considered in your Super Bowl MVP predictions.
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Trent McDuffie to win Super Bowl MVP
Top odds available: +60000 at FanDuel
I can’t believe it… 600/1 odds? Is this even real? When I saw this incredible price at FanDuel, I was in shock. This might just be the best ultra-long shot bet I’ve ever placed on the Super Bowl.
While McDuffie may not have the same level of recognition as Bosa, the second-year cornerback has made a name for himself by becoming an All-Pro this season. He has been a crucial factor in the Chiefs’ strong pass defense, ranking sixth in PFF grade among cornerbacks in 2023. McDuffie also showcased his versatility by recording three sacks and forcing five fumbles throughout the season.
The impressive statistics from the defensive back showcase his adaptability in defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s system. I am interested in his unlikely chances of getting the Chiefs’ first sack (+2800 on BetMGM), as well as his odds of scoring an interception (+1000 on BetMGM) and potentially finishing with multiple interceptions (+18000 on FanDuel).
If he manages to force Purdy into throwing multiple interceptions, with a 0.55% implied probability according to FanDuel, he would greatly improve his chances of winning the MVP award, especially if he can also record a sack or force a fumble. The current odds suggest only a 0.17% chance of him winning the award, which is underestimated.
Although it is rare for a defensive player to win MVP, it has occurred nine times, with two instances within the last decade. McDuffie, as the standout defender for the Chiefs, could potentially increase their chances of winning if he performs exceptionally well on Sunday.
This offer is only available to new customers who deposit a minimum of $5. If your first bet is $5 or more and it wins within 72 hours, you will receive $200 in Bonus Bets.
How to bet Super Bowl long shots
It is crucial to recognize that when betting on long odds, it is important to understand that these bets are unlikely to win, so it is unrealistic to expect any of them to be successful.
This does not imply that they will not pay out – otherwise, we would not wager on them. Instead, placing bets on long shots (or any bet, for that matter) is a matter of probability. It involves identifying which improbable events are more likely to happen than the odds provided by our top sports betting apps.
For instance, consider the chance of a touchdown happening on the first kickoff. Several top sportsbooks are providing odds of +10000 for this scenario in this year’s Super Bowl 58. This means a $10 bet could potentially earn a $1,000 return, making it an exciting way to kick off the game.
The chances of this happening are extremely slim. As we mentioned in our analysis of the Super Bowl opening kickoff touchback odds, there has only been one opening kickoff returned for a touchdown in Super Bowl history. In the 2023 NFL regular season, only four out of 587 kickoffs (0.68%) were returned for touchdowns.
While it did occur in Super Bowl 41, the likelihood of it happening again is not impossible. However, the 100/1 odds suggest that it is less than a 1% chance. Therefore, it would not be wise to place that bet, even if the odds seem tempting.
The key to betting on long shots is finding a balance between the potential for an event to occur and the implied probability of it happening on Super Bowl Sunday.
Super Bowl betting odds pages
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Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Underscoreg Promos (U.S. only)
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