Super Bowl Passing Prop Predictions, Odds: Top Picks for Mahomes, Purdy
In the 2024 Super Bowl, Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy go head-to-head as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers. Check out our top Super Bowl Passing props based on the latest NFL odds from our top Super Bowl betting sites.
Brock Purdy, in his debut season as a permanent starter, will become the third youngest quarterback (24 years, 46 days) to start in a Super Bowl as his San Francisco 49ers take on the Kansas City Chiefs in Sunday’s championship game.
If the 49ers win their first title since 1995, he would become only the fifth passer drafted in the seventh round or later to win a Super Bowl, joining the ranks of Bart Starr, Johnny Unitas, Roger Staubach, and Brad Johnson. This possibility is reflected in the latest Super Bowl odds, which currently favor the 49ers.
Patrick Mahomes poses a challenge as he aims to join Tom Brady and Joe Montana in the exclusive club of quarterbacks with 15 playoff wins. With a 2-1 Super Bowl record, Mahomes has already won Super Bowl MVP twice and is the current favorite according to our Super Bowl MVP odds.
Here are our top Super Bowl Passing props for Chiefs vs. 49ers, in addition to our predictions for the game. The odds are sourced from our top NFL betting sites and our confidence level is rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.
Super Bowl passing props
- Patrick Mahomes first pass completion direction and yardage: Middle and 9 yards or fewer (+850 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Over 7.5 consecutive completions (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Brock Purdy to throw a second-quarter touchdown pass (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Super Bowl passing prop predictions
Patrick Mahomes first pass completion direction and yardage: Middle and 9 yards or fewer (+850 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
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DraftKings is offering nine different betting options for this wager, including three choices for the direction of Mahomes’ first completion in each area of the field (left, middle, right) at different distances (nine yards or fewer, 10-19 yards, 20-plus yards). Bettors have the chance to win big with odds ranging from +225 to +2000 depending on the play that hits.
It is anticipated that Mahomes will look to Travis Kelce as his reliable option for his initial completion, connecting with him in the middle of the field for a modest gain. Mahomes has an impressive track record when targeting Kelce in the postseason, completing 80.9% of his passes for 1,472 yards with a remarkable 17:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a stellar 139.2 passer rating, as reported by Next Gen Stats.
Of course, throwing the ball outside the numbers (to the left and right) provides more opportunities, but we are counting on Andy Reid to first break down the 49ers’ defense with a quick completion.
For additional information on the Chiefs quarterback, be sure to explore our Patrick Mahomes NFL player props.
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Patrick Mahomes Over 7.5 consecutive completions (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Many of the top sports betting sites are providing odds on the total number of completions and longest completion for each quarterback. However, DraftKings’ attractive plus-money odds on the consecutive completions for each quarterback are especially appealing.
FanDuel has Mahomes favored at -120 to have a higher completion percentage than Purdy, who has -102 odds. The over/under for total incompletions by both teams is set at 22.5, which is relatively low.
Despite Mahomes’ 6.2 yards per attempt against the Baltimore Ravens being the second-lowest in his playoff career, it did not diminish his efficiency. He still managed to set an AFC Championship Game record by completing 11 consecutive passes to start the game.
In consecutive playoff games against tough Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens defenses, he has now completed at least 73.9% of his pass attempts. In two out of three Super Bowl appearances, the veteran has recorded 26 or more completions. The only exception was during the 2023 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. However, Mahomes achieved a playoff career-high 77.8% completion rate last year, with an average of 8.96 air yards per attempt, his highest in all three playoff games.
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Brock Purdy to throw a second-quarter touchdown pass (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Chiefs’ defense has only allowed an average of four points per game in the second halves of their last eight games, totaling 32 points. This includes 10 points in the second halves of their three playoff games. The 49ers should focus on scoring early and frequently to counter this strong defensive performance.
In each of San Francisco’s two playoff games, the team scored two first-half touchdowns, both coming in the second quarter. One of these was a 32-yard pass from Purdy to George Kittle in the Divisional Round. The 49ers have managed to score at least one passing touchdown in the second quarter in five out of their last eight games.
Kansas City blitzes at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL at 36.3%. Despite this, we anticipate that it will not impact Purdy, who currently ranks second in completion percentage at 68.1%, first in passing yards per attempt with 10.1, and first in passer rating at 128.0 for the 2023-24 season, including playoffs.
FanDuel is offering odds of +116 for this bet, but DraftKings provides better value. Additionally, BetMGM has the Over on Purdy’s 1.5 passing touchdowns at a high -135, so we are taking advantage of the plus-money odds that Purdy will throw a touchdown in the second quarter after settling in from the first quarter nerves.
We further delved into Purdy’s perspective with our Brock Purdy NFL player props.
Super Bowl passing prop bets were placed on 2/6/24 at 6:19 a.m. ET.
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