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NBA Odds & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Thursday

Young Juliet

Updated as of February 23, 2023 at 3:28 PM EST. Read time: 4 minutes and 32 seconds. Access the latest information on Twitter and Google News.

It has been quite some time since we last witnessed NBA games, but now players are taking a well-earned break following the All-Star festivities in Utah. As we return with a nine-game slate, teams will be looking to solidify their objectives for the remainder of the season. Stay tuned for our NBA picks and predictions.

Thursday’s lineup features TNT games showcasing teams vying for top seeds like the Memphis Grizzlies and Philadelphia 76ers, as well as the Golden State Warriors facing off against the Los Angeles Lakers. There are also some uneven matchups that could still offer betting opportunities. Our task is to identify the best betting value, and the NBA action kicks off again on Thursday.

Check out our top NBA picks for Thursday, with odds from DraftKings, BetMGM, and Caesars. Our confidence level for each pick is rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

Take a look at our NBA selections and top NBA gambling websites.

Thursday’s NBA schedule and odds

(odds via DraftKings)

  • Boston Celtics (-8) vs. Indiana Pacers
  • Denver Nuggets (+2.5) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
  • Detroit Pistons (+7) vs. Orlando Magic
  • Memphis Grizzlies (+3.5) vs. Philadelphia 76ers
  • New Orleans Pelicans (+6) vs. Toronto Raptors
  • San Antonio Spurs (+14.5) vs. Dallas Mavericks
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (+1) vs. Utah Jazz
  • Golden State Warriors (+5.5) vs. Los Angeles Lakers
  • Portland Trail Blazers (+6) vs. Sacramento Kings

Thursday’s NBA best bets

  • Spread: Pistons +7 (-106 via FanDuel) vs. Magic ⭐⭐⭐
  • Total: Spurs-Mavericks Over 238.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Upset: Grizzlies ML (+140 via DraftKings) vs. 76ers ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Fred VanVleet Over 6.5 assists (-125 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Take a look at our NBA Finals and NBA MVP betting odds.

NBA top picks for Thursday

Spread: Pistons +7 (-106 via FanDuel) vs. Magic ⭐⭐⭐

The Pistons have begun the season with a 2-0 record, beating the Magic in both games. Despite their strong start, the majority of the betting public is backing the favored Magic to win the next game, with over 75% of bets being placed on them to cover the spread.

Not so fast.

In February, Detroit’s defense has improved with the return of Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren, becoming average in the restricted area and top three in the mid-range. These zones have been key for the Magic’s offense, who rank second in field goal attempts in the restricted area and 11th in the mid-range.

Detroit has been relying heavily on corner 3s in February, while Orlando has struggled defensively against that zone. The Magic have a poor record as a home favorite this season, going just 2-3 ATS. I predict that Orlando will start the game slow and sluggish after shooting 42% from deep in their last game and then having to endure the All-Star Break.

Total: Spurs-Mavericks Over 238.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The two Texas teams faced off earlier this season in a thrilling 126-125 game that easily surpassed the total in regulation. Although a lot has changed since then, all signs still indicate that the Over is likely in their upcoming matchup.

In the last game, the Mavericks had Spencer Dinwiddie in the starting lineup, but he only scored 11 points on 5-of-12 shooting. This Thursday, the Mavericks will have star scorer Kyrie Irving starting instead.

However, with Tre Jones listed as doubtful and Jakob Poeltl and Josh Richardson no longer on the team, the Spurs may struggle to produce stops on defense. This season, they have allowed an average of 126.3 points per game to opponents when Jones is not playing.

It’s a wise decision to put your money on the Mavericks’ offense in this game, as they are predicted to dominate their in-state rivals.

Upset: Grizzlies ML (+140 via DraftKings) vs. 76ers ⭐⭐⭐

This inter-conference game was played earlier this season, with the Grizzlies winning decisively against the 76ers at home in December. However, James Harden and Tyrese Maxey were missing for the 76ers, while Desmond Bane was absent for the Grizzlies.

The injury report for Thursday’s game heavily favors the 76ers, with Philadelphia having no players listed as inactive while Memphis has marked new addition Luke Kennard and starting center Steven Adams as out. As a result, more than 75% of the public ATS action has been placed on the 76ers to even the season series as they battle for the top seed in the East. However, this confidence may be misguided.

The Grizzlies have been missing Adams since Jan. 25 and have had Ja Morant in all but one game. During this time, the Grizzlies have been one of the top 11 teams in the NBA in terms of field goal attempts in the restricted area and the paint. This could pose a challenge for the 76ers defense, which has struggled in allowing high field goal percentages in close-range shots since the start of the New Year.

While Harden’s presence on the court does bolster Philadelphia’s offense, the impact is not as significant as anticipated due to the formidable defense of Dillon Brooks for the Grizzlies.

I anticipate the Grizzlies will stay competitive throughout the game on national television, largely due to Morant’s exceptional performance in the paint. While the 76ers have a strong record in clutch games this season at 19-11, that trend is likely to change in this matchup, particularly since they are facing a coaching disadvantage against Taylor Jenkins of the Grizzlies. Thursday’s game presents a favorable chance to bet on Memphis to win outright instead of taking the small spread.

Player Prop: Fred VanVleet Over 6.5 assists (-125 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Raptors will have their ideal starting lineup for Thursday’s game at home against the Pelicans, which is expected to enhance ball movement led by their experienced point guard. In their recent seven games, the Pelicans have given up the second-highest number of assists per game to point guards. This includes D’Angelo Russell contributing seven assists during the Pelicans’ previous away game.

VanVleet has been connecting with his top targets for assists this season, including Scottie Barnes, Pascal Siakam, Gary Trent Jr., and OG Anunoby. All four are set to start alongside VanVleet on Thursday. VanVleet has surpassed his assist mark in 11 out of 16 games when this lineup is on the court. Despite recording six assists in his previous game against the Pelicans, he did so in just 20 minutes due to a blowout. With Toronto favored to win on Thursday, we can anticipate an increase in minutes and offensive production from VanVleet and his teammates.

NBA top wagers placed on 02/23/2023 at 1:45 p.m. Eastern Time.

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

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Written By:
Young Juliet
Ahaan is an analytics researcher who works in fantasy football and sports betting, focusing on MLB, NBA, and NFL. He’s previously contributed fantasy baseball and football content for Fantrax and currently is a betting analyst for PlayerProfiler, where he has also been a director of analytics. When Ahaan is not capping sports props, he’s often playing sports such as floor hockey and basketball and binge-watching The Voice.