NBA Odds & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Friday

The NBA Trade Deadline was filled with excitement, including major trades involving superstars like Kevin Durant, complex three-way deals that changed struggling teams, and a flurry of second-round draft picks being traded like crazy. Keep reading for our top NBA picks for Friday based on the most favorable odds.

With the NBA All-Star break just a week away and playing time being affected by load management, NBA betting has become more uncertain. Despite these challenges, we have identified some valuable opportunities in Friday’s 11-game slate, particularly in stable situations.

Be vigilant and focus on similar situations in the coming days by consulting current injury reports and exploiting defensive matchups that have consistently performed well over a significant period of time.

Check out our top NBA betting picks for Friday, with odds from BetMGM and Caesars underscored. Confidence levels are rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

Explore our NBA predictions and top NBA sportsbooks.

Friday’s NBA schedule and odds

(odds via DraftKings)

• Phoenix Suns (+1.5) vs. Indiana Pacers
• New York Knicks (+5.5) vs. Philadelphia 76ers
• San Antonio Spurs (+4) vs. Detroit Pistons
• Charlotte Hornets (+11.5) vs. Boston Celtics
• Utah Jazz (+7) vs. Toronto Raptors
• Houston Rockets (+11) vs. Miami Heat
• Minnesota Timberwolves (+6.5) vs. Memphis Grizzlies
• Oklahoma City Thunder (+3.5) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (-3.5)
• Dallas Mavericks (+2) vs. Sacramento Kings (-2)
• Cleveland Cavaliers (-2) vs. New Orleans Pelicans
• Milwaukee Bucks (+2) vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Friday’s NBA best bets

• Spread: Hornets +11.5 vs. Celtics (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Total: Spurs-Pistons Over 235.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Upset: Pelicans ML vs. Cavaliers (+125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop same-game parlay: Jalen Green Over 2.5 turnovers & Heat ML (+101 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Take a look at our NBA Finals and NBA MVP betting odds.

NBA top picks for Friday

Spread: Hornets +11.5 vs. Celtics (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

The teams have already played against each other three times this season. The Celtics won by 35 points at home in the first game, followed by wins of 16 and 12 points on the road. Both teams are now missing key players, with the Hornets trading away Jalen McDaniels and Mason Plumlee, and the Celtics without All-Star Jaylen Brown due to a facial fracture.

Despite playing at home, the Celtics are only favored by 11.5 points, a margin they have consistently covered against Charlotte in the past. While many are optimistic about the return of Boston centers Al Horford and Robert Williams III, I believe the opposing team still has offensive capabilities and I will be taking the points with them.

It would be wise to expect improvement from the Hornets’ offense, which has shot under 30% from three in 8 of their last 11 games, and a decline from the Celtics’ offense, which posted a remarkable 43.3% clip from three in February. Boston has a mediocre 17-19 ATS record this season when favored by more than 4 points, while Charlotte has a strong 6-3-1 ATS record as underdogs by at least 10 points.

With Plumlee traded away, the Hornets are likely to increase their mid-range jump shots, which could benefit the Celtics’ defense. The Celtics have allowed the 4th-most mid-range shots per game on the 7th-highest shooting percentage since the start of the New Year.

Total: Spurs-Pistons Over 235.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Despite over 60% of the action favoring the Under, the line has still increased by a point since opening. The potential absence of key players like Devin Vassell, Tre Jones, Keldon Johnson, and Jeremy Sochan for the Spurs may make it seem risky to bet on offense, but this actually highlights the lack of defense from both teams.

In their previous matchup, these two teams combined for 230 points, falling just short of reaching that total. The Detroit Pistons struggled, shooting a disappointing 58.8% from the free throw line, while the San Antonio Spurs showcased their strong defensive lineup, including center Jakob Poeltl, point guard Tre Jones, and the versatile shooting guard Josh Richardson.

Poeltl, known for his strong boxouts and solid paint defense, has been traded to the Toronto Raptors. Richardson, who played a crucial role in the Spurs’ impressive three-point defense, has joined the New Orleans Pelicans. The Pistons’ starting lineup, which includes offensive threats like Jaden Ivey, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Isaiah Stewart, is ready to go. With the team struggling to shoot from beyond the arc in recent games, expect Coach Dwane Casey’s fast-paced squad to find scoring opportunities more easily in the upcoming games.

Upset: Pelicans ML vs. Cavaliers (+125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

This game promises to be an exciting showdown between two undefeated teams in February. The Cleveland Cavaliers are a perfect 4-0 ATS and have won all four games outright, while the New Orleans Pelicans are 3-0-1 ATS and have won all three home games. It’s likely that both teams will continue their winning streaks in today’s matchup.

During their last encounter, the Cavs claimed victory at home while the Pelicans were without forwards Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson, and shot 11 fewer free throws than Cleveland. In the upcoming rematch on Friday, Ingram’s return is expected to make a significant impact against the Cavs’ defensive strategy focused on protecting the paint. Since January 1st, Cleveland has allowed the 7th most field goals made per game and the 9th highest field goal percentage in the midrange area.

Both Ingram and shooting guard C.J. McCollum have built successful careers by excelling in the mid-range area, ranking in the top 10 this season among all NBA players in mid-range attempts per game.

Fade the public and bet on the home underdog in Cleveland, where over 65% of the ATS action is currently favoring them.

Player Prop SGP: Jalen Green Over 2.5 turnovers & Heat ML (+101 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Houston Rockets, who are 12-point underdogs, will face the defensive-minded Miami Heat on Friday. They will be missing point guard Kevin Porter Jr. due to injury and shooting guard Eric Gordon, who was traded to the Clippers. With their depleted lineup, shooting guard Jalen Green is expected to see increased playing time and is likely to commit three turnovers in today’s game.

This season, Green, who is known for his dribbling skills, had at least three turnovers in seven out of 11 games without Porter, resulting in losses for the Rockets in all seven of those games. With Gordon no longer on the team, Green is expected to have an increased role, especially against a Heat lineup that features four elite defenders in Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, Jimmy Butler, and Bam Adebayo. When facing this specific Miami roster this season, opposing No. 1 options struggled.

• LeBron James: 6 turnovers
• Trae Young: 10 turnovers
• Giannis Antetokounmpo: 3 turnovers
• Tyrese Haliburton: 4 turnovers

Miami is expected to easily defeat the Rockets who are in the process of rebuilding and lack a solid game strategy. While not every sportsbook offers turnover props, both DraftKings and Caesars provide them. Personally, I would consider betting on Green having over 2.5 turnovers at -140 on DraftKings, but I believe there is more value in parlaying these two bets together, which can be done at Caesars.

Best NBA bets as of 2/10/2023 at 1:28 p.m. ET.

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

• FanDuel: No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000 | Read our FanDuel Review
• Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
• DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
• PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
• BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review

*Bonuses are not valid in Ontario. If you are 21 or older and have a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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