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Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavericks is defended by Dillon Brooks of the Houston Rockets during overtime at American Airlines Center. We're backing Doncic in our Mavericks vs. Heat player prop prediction.
Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavericks is defended by Dillon Brooks of the Houston Rockets during overtime at American Airlines Center. Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images via AFP.

As the NBA season wraps up, the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat are set to face off in a crucial game that could impact the playoff standings. Check out our top player props for the Mavericks vs. Heat matchup, featuring the best NBA odds.

With a record of 49-30, the Dallas Mavericks are on their way to the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, after winning 15 of their last 17 games. The Miami Heat (44-35) will face a tough challenge as they aim to secure a better position in the Eastern Conference and minimize their chances of facing the shortest odds in the NBA Play-In Tournament.

The Mavericks are set to face off against Miami on Wednesday at 7:30 p.m. ET, with the game airing on ESPN. Luka Doncic and his team are favored by 3.5 points on our top sports betting sites as they look to continue their winning streak. Get ready for an exciting game as Dallas’s strong offense goes head-to-head with Miami’s tough defense.

Here are our top Mavericks vs. Heat player prop predictions and NBA picks, along with our NBA player props and best bets. Our pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale and odds are provided by our top NBA betting sites.

Mavericks vs. Heat game info & odds

  • When: Wednesday, April 10
  • Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Kaseya Center, Miami, Fla.
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Favorite: Mavericks -3.5 (-110 via bet365)

Mavericks vs. Heat player props

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Mavericks vs. Heat prediction

Luka Doncic Over 9.5 assists (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Some argue that Luka Doncic has been the hottest player in the NBA recently, leading to his second-shortest NBA MVP odds. With 11 triple-doubles in his last 19 games and the potential to score over 35 points each night, Doncic is a force to be reckoned with. However, the Miami Heat have a strong defense, ranking fourth in points allowed and fifth in defensive rating in the NBA. While Doncic’s ability to challenge Miami is not in question, we are more confident in his ability to excel in assists specifically.

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The Miami Heat rank 15th in the NBA for assists allowed per game (26.6), placing them in the middle of the pack. However, they give up the eighth highest number of assists per game to point guards (8.86). Luka Doncic, who is second in the league for assists per game (9.8), has been particularly effective as a passer recently. In his last 20 games, he has recorded at least 10 assists in 14 of them (70% success rate). Since Feb. 27, he has been averaging 10.6 assists per game.

The even-money odds at DraftKings offer great value compared to other top sports betting apps. Some apps have Doncic odds to go Over 9.5 assists as short as -113. A $10 bet at +100 odds would result in a $10 profit if he hits the Over. The -113 odds suggest a 53.05% probability that he reaches 10 assists, according to our odds calculator.

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Tyler Herro Over 3.5 made 3-pointers (+110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

The Mavericks rank fifth in the NBA for points scored per game at 118.7. To compete with them, Miami will rely on Tyler Herro to excel, particularly in his 3-point shooting. Dallas lacks a strong defense, allowing the 11th highest number of 3-pointers per game in the league (13.2) and allowing opponents to shoot 36.8% from beyond the arc. Since Duncan Robinson is not playing in this game, Herro will be even more crucial in providing scoring from long range.

Herro is currently leading Miami in 3-pointers made per game with an average of 3.2 and attempts with 8.1, while shooting 39.4% from three. After missing 20 games, he returned to the Heat’s lineup on April 5 and has been progressively looking healthier in each game. In a recent game against the Atlanta Hawks, Herro scored 33 points and made four 3-pointers, showing promising form. This is good news for Miami, especially considering that Dallas has been allowing the fifth most 3-pointers made per game to shooting guards this season, with an average of 3.53.

This means that according to bet365, there is a 47.62% chance that Herro hits the Over with +110 odds. If he does, a $10 bet would pay out $21.

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Jimmy Butler Under 1.5 steals + blocks (+114 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The Heat’s success this season has largely depended on their defense, but facing a superstar like Doncic on Wednesday night could pose a challenge. Dallas, led by Doncic and Irving, is known for their consistent and mistake-free offense. The Mavericks have the fifth lowest turnovers per game in the NBA (11.5) and are one of the most difficult teams to block, allowing the second fewest blocks per game (4.0).

Despite Jimmy Butler’s average of 1.4 steals and 0.3 blocks per game, he will struggle to make a defensive impact in the upcoming game against Dallas. The Mavericks have a strong defense against small forwards, allowing the fewest steals to that position in the league. Before a recent three-steal game against Atlanta, Butler had gone eight games without recording more than 1.5 steals and blocks in a game.

A $10 bet on Butler hitting the Under with +114 odds from DraftKings would result in a payout of $21.40. Caesars offers shorter odds at +106, indicating a 48.54% chance of the prop hitting.

Player props for the Mavericks vs. Heat game were created on Wednesday at 10:20 a.m. ET.

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