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College Football Player Props & Best Bets, Odds for New Year’s Day: Top CFP Predictions

Allen Byron

Updated as of January 1, 2024 at 3:38 PM EST with a 4 minute and 58 second read. Find more information on Twitter and Google News.

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College football best bets

On New Year’s Day, five college football bowl games will be played, but all eyes will be on the two late College Football Playoff matchups. We have analyzed the top player props and made our best bets for Monday’s CFP bowl games using the most favorable NCAAF odds.

The controversy ignited when the College Football Playoff matchups were announced, with Florida State being the first undefeated Power Five conference champion to not make an appearance.

Nonetheless, when Alabama faces off against the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines, it promises to be must-watch television. The Crimson Tide aims to pave the way for an SEC team to win the national championship for the fifth consecutive year.

In the upcoming matchup, either Texas or Washington will earn their first win in the College Football Playoff, leading to an exciting showdown between two of the nation’s top 10 offenses in terms of total yards.

In our analysis of college bowl game odds, we present our college football player props and top bets for Monday’s College Football Playoff games, with odds sourced from our trusted college football betting sites and confidence ratings on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

College Football Playoff best bets for Monday

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College Football Playoff schedule and odds for Monday

(Odds via DraftKings)

College Football Playoff player props picks for Monday

J.J. McCarthy Under 189.5 passing yards vs. Alabama (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

We are highly confident in Alabama’s defense’s ability to limit McCarthy to one or fewer passing touchdowns. However, the odds for this outcome are so unfavorable (DraftKings has -200 odds for the Under of 1.5 passing touchdowns) that we decided to avoid betting on McCarthy in another aspect.

Therefore, we are giving the Under on his passing yards a three-star rating because he has not reached this total in the last month, with a maximum of 148 passing yards in the team’s last four games.

It appears that McCarthy’s decline in performance has coincided with Michigan football analyst Connor Stalion’s departure. Prior to Stalion’s resignation, McCarthy completed 78.1% of his passes and averaged 225 passing yards per game with an 18-3 TD-INT ratio in eight games. However, in the five games following Stalion’s resignation, McCarthy has completed 68.6% of his passes and averaged 166 yards per game with a 1-1 TD-INT ratio.

Roman Wilson, the top receiver, has only caught one pass in two out of the last three games. Additionally, the Crimson Tide defense is ranked 12th in the nation with 38 sacks, contributing to McCarthy’s continued lack of productivity.

DraftKings and bet365 provide the most competitive prices among our top sports betting apps for the O/U of 189.5, which has decreased from the initial 190.5. Both options offer higher numbers compared to FanDuel, which is offering a lower number at 185.5.

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Adonia Mitchell Over 60.5 receiving yards vs. Washington (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Adonai Mitchell of Texas ranks second on the team in both receptions and receiving yards. With key injuries to two of the Longhorns’ top playmakers, Mitchell is poised to have a breakout performance in the upcoming semifinals.

Jonathan Brooks, Texas’ leading rusher, has been sidelined for the past three games due to a torn ACL. In his absence, backup running back CJ Baxter has struggled to fill the void, managing just 88 yards on 22 carries in two starts, with his only standout performance being a 100-yard rushing game against Iowa State.

Therefore, it is anticipated that head coach Steve Sarkisian will target his former team’s 121st-ranked pass defense frequently through the air. However, Mitchell may receive the most attention in the passing game, as leading receiver Xavier Worthy revealed that his ankle is not fully recovered.

Mitchell accumulated over 61 receiving yards in three of the team’s last five games. In one of the two games where he did not reach that mark, quarterback Quinn Ewers only threw 26 passes, his lowest number of attempts in the past seven games, during a dominant 57-7 victory over Texas Tech.

We anticipate a tighter matchup with Washington, as they have allowed seven receivers to amass 61 or more yards in games against ranked opponents this year. Texas, with one of the most potent passing attacks this season, falls behind only Oregon and USC in terms of prolific passing offenses faced by the Huskies.

All our top sports betting sites agree on an O/U of 60.5, with FanDuel offering the lowest price. The odds to back the Over are as high as -117 at Caesars.

College Football Playoff game picks for Monday

Alabama-Michigan Under 45 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We are hesitant to support the Crimson Tide due to the overwhelming public support, but we anticipate a defensive battle leading to a low-scoring game.

Despite scoring 27 points against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, Alabama struggled on third downs, converting just 3 out of 13 attempts. Additionally, they only averaged 2.8 yards per carry against a Bulldogs defense that was ranked 88th in rushing explosiveness.

When given time to prepare, Nick Saban typically crafts an exceptional defensive game plan. In the last six playoff appearances by the Crimson Tide, they have limited opponents to seven or fewer points in four of the semifinal games.

Michigan’s offense was ranked 37th in rush success and 57th in line yards going into the Big Ten Championship against Iowa. If they are unable to create running lanes for Blake Corum and the rest of the running backs, it is unlikely that the passing game will be able to carry the offense against a tough defense that boasts at least four potential future first-round NFL draft picks.

Backers can choose from multiple top sportsbooks, with FanDuel being the only one offering an O/U slightly lower at 44.5.

Washington team total Under 29.5 vs. Texas (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Washington defied the odds by defeating Oregon as a 9.5-point underdog in the Pac-12 Championship, securing a spot in the playoffs. Despite our admiration for Heisman runner-up Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies’ impressive passing game, Washington has not faced a defense as formidable as Texas’s this season. We anticipate that Texas’s defensive front will be a significant challenge for Washington in the upcoming game.

Texas is well-equipped to shut down Washington’s running game, boasting the best yards-per-carry defense in Division I when it comes to runs between the tackles. Furthermore, the Longhorns have impressive rankings in red-zone and third-down defense, sitting in the top five and top two, respectively.

Despite Texas having the 95th-ranked secondary, their defense may not be as easily exploited in this game as some predict. College Football Nerds noted that Texas has faced a lot of passing attacks due to their strong run defense. Despite facing two top-10 passing offenses, the Longhorns actually rank 31st in yards per attempt and 15th in opponent-adjusted yards per attempt.

The Under has been successful in eight out of twelve Longhorns’ games this season and has a perfect record in Washington’s last six neutral-site games. As a result, we anticipate the Texas defense will contribute to maintaining these trends.

Caesars and bet365 have a juice of -125 or higher for team totals of at least 30.5 points, making FanDuel and DraftKings’ -115 odds more favorable for betting on the Huskies’ team total Under of 29.5 points.

The top college football bets were placed on Saturday at 10:32 a.m. ET.

Note from the editor: Prepare for the upcoming launch of sports betting in Vermont with our top sportsbook promotions, and don’t forget to download the best sports betting apps in Vermont! Must be 21+ and located in VT. If you have a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Written By:
Allen Byron
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he’s especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike’s a big advocate of “fading the public” and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that “there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas.” When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He’s tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”