Louisville vs. Florida State Prediction, Picks & Odds: ACC Championship
The Florida State Seminoles, who have yet to be defeated, will face off against the Louisville Cardinals in Saturday’s ACC Championship Game. We have compiled our top prediction for the Louisville vs. Florida State matchup, utilizing the college football odds from our top college football betting sites.
Louisville (10-2, 7-1 ACC) is making its debut in the ACC Championship Game, but any chance of reaching the College Football Playoff was dashed by a 38-31 loss to Kentucky last week. This defeat marked the Cardinals’ fifth straight loss in the Governor’s Cup and their first home loss of the season.
Even in the absence of star quarterback Jordan Travis, the Florida State Seminoles (12-0, 8-0 ACC) managed to overcome their first challenge last week. They came back from a 12-0 deficit in the second quarter to defeat their rival Florida.
The Seminoles are striving to make their second appearance in the College Football Playoff, with their last appearance dating back to the inaugural season of the playoffs in 2014-15.
In our college football expert picks, we provide our top prediction for the Louisville vs. Florida State game along with player props for the matchup. Odds can be found on our recommended college football betting sites, and our confidence in the pick is rated on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Louisville vs. Florida State prediction: ACC Championship
Over 48.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Florida State is one of four teams ranked in the top 10 in both Offensive and Defensive SP+. Despite criticism of the Seminoles’ offense following QB Tate Rodemaker’s recent performance, we anticipate an improved showing from the backup quarterback at a neutral site compared to a true road game, especially considering he already has one start under his belt.
Editor’s note: Rodemaker’s status for the game is uncertain as of Friday afternoon and will be determined closer to game time.
Louisville has a history of struggling defensively against inexperienced quarterbacks, as evidenced by their 38-point loss to Pittsburgh in Christian Veilleux’s debut start. Veilleux threw for 200 yards and two touchdowns, while the Cardinals’ three turnovers resulted in 14 points for the Panthers.
Louisville’s three turnovers against Kentucky last week were a significant factor in their loss, despite outgaining Kentucky 403-289, converting nine of 17 third downs (and 3 of 4 fourth downs), and winning the time-of-possession battle by over 13 minutes.
Facing a Florida State team that finished the regular season tied for fifth in turnover differential (+11) can be risky.
Louisville struggled defensively in two of their three away games this season, giving up 31 or more points. On the other hand, the Cardinals have shown strong offensive capabilities, ranking in the top 21 nationally in Rush Success, Pass Success, and Quality Drives.
Florida State has only faced one other opponent ranked in the top 27 in both points and yards per play, and we anticipate head coach Jeff Brohm will introduce innovative strategies to challenge the Seminoles’ defense when they face the Cardinals.
This play is currently rated three stars, but with a more favorable weather forecast, it could easily be upgraded to a four-star play. The Over has hit in 5 out of Louisville’s 8 ACC games this season, and has cashed in all four games where Louisville has had equal rest as their opponents.
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Louisville vs. Florida State best odds
BetMGM (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 49.5 | 48.5 | 49 | 49 |
| Over (-108) | Over (-105) | Over (-110) | Over (-110) | Over (-110) |
As fans who prefer betting on the Over, BetMGM is our top choice for a sports betting app because it is the only one that offers a low total of 48.5 and charges the standard -110 juice for betting on the Over.
We suggest waiting until closer to the end of the week to see if the total drops, as the initial weather forecast predicts a greater than 50% chance of rain in Charlotte on Saturday night.
In two of the last three meetings between these teams, the Over has been successful, with the projected total in each game being 57 points or higher. Take advantage of the best odds by using our exclusive BetMGM bonus code: SBRBONUS.
Louisville vs. Florida State odds
Louisville vs. Florida State odds analysis
FanDuel’s total line has seen a wide range of movement, starting at 50.5, jumping to 51.5, and then dropping to 49.5.
At some of our top sports betting sites, we have observed a gradual decrease from peak weekend levels of 53.5, which is likely due to weather-related factors as the Under has received only 38% of early bets.
The Seminoles are favored by 2.5 points at our top sportsbooks, with FanDuel offering odds of -120, slightly higher than the usual -110 price to bet on Florida State.
Despite coming off a loss, Louisville has seen line movement in their favor at our top sportsbook promo sites. Caesars, DraftKings, and bet365 reached highs of Florida State -5 over the weekend, while FanDuel and BetMGM have lowered their line from -4.5. This reverse line movement is notable as 63% of early point spread wagers are on the Seminoles.
Louisville vs. Florida State game info
- When: Saturday, Dec. 2 at 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
- How to watch: ABC
- Weather: 63 degrees, 58% chance of precipitation, wind 4 mph ENE
Prediction for the Louisville vs. Florida State game was made at 6:03 a.m. ET on Tuesday.
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