College Football Upset Picks, Predictions for Conference Championship Week: Undefeated Season Ends
The outcomes of the Power Five Conference championships have the potential to create chaos in the College Football Playoffs. Here are three upset picks for conference championship week based on the top NCAAF odds from our recommended college football betting sites.
Last week, NC State caused an upset by defeating rival North Carolina, securing our +112 moneyline bet. Our hopes for a profitable day were crushed when Nebraska, aiming for bowl eligibility, lost to Iowa in a close game that ended with a field goal, narrowly missing out on another potential win.
If Georgia, Michigan, Washington, and Florida State all continue their undefeated streaks this weekend, the College Football Playoff committee will likely have a clear top four teams. Yet, the possibility of upsets adds uncertainty to the situation, giving the committee more to consider.
In addition to our expert college football picks and player props, we are sharing our top upset picks for Conference Championship weekend. These picks are based on odds from our recommended college football betting sites and are rated on a 1 to 5-star scale for confidence.
College football upset picks: Conference Championship Week
- UNLV (+135 via Caesars) vs. Boise State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- SMU (+165 via BetMGM, bet365) vs. Tulane ⭐⭐⭐
- Louisville (+135 via bet365) vs. Florida State ⭐⭐⭐
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College football upset predictions
UNLV vs. Boise State (+135 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
UNLV and Boise State were chosen to compete in the Mountain West championship game through an unusual method of averaging four computer rankings. This decision came after the two teams, along with San Jose State, finished in a three-way tie and did not face each other during the regular season for head-to-head tie-breaking.
UNLV is hoping to carry on their successful season, which included nine wins for the first time since 1984 and their third winning season in Mountain West play since joining in 1999. Boise State, on the other hand, has the advantage of experience, making their seventh conference championship appearance since 2013. However, the Broncos have faced some challenges recently, including the dismissal of head coach Andy Avalos earlier this month.
We anticipate that UNLV’s well-rounded offense, with an average of 41 rushing attempts per game leading up to last week, will continue to support a passing game that was ranked 18th in Pass Success. Additionally, their defensive strength lies in stopping the run, as they were ranked 56th in Rush Success and 121st in Pass Success before last week. This makes them well-equipped to contain Boise State’s strong rushing attack, which was ranked in the top 14 in Rushing Success Rate and Rushing PPA before last week.
UNLV has a great opportunity to capitalize on a tired Boise State defense after facing Air Force’s triple-option attack. The Rebels have a strong record of 10-2 ATS this season, and we believe they will come out victorious in this game. Take advantage of the best odds for UNLV at Caesars sportsbook by using our promo code: SBRBONUS1000.
To find out more about this game, check out my prediction for the Boise State vs. UNLV matchup.
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SMU vs. Tulane (+165 via BetMGM, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Choosing to go against Tulane did not prove to be successful for us last week, as they dominated UTSA with a 29-16 victory. Similar to the Green Wave, SMU has a perfect 8-0 record in AAC games, with six of their eight consecutive wins being by a margin of 18 points or more.
SMU is renowned for its high-powered offense, which is tied for fourth nationally in scoring with 41.8 points per game. Yet, the Mustangs’ defense is equally impressive, ranking in the top five nationally in Success Rate, Passing Success Rate, and EPA/Pass Allowed, despite not receiving as much recognition.
Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt is not entering this game with strong momentum, having posted his two lowest QBR scores of the season in the past three weeks. Against UTSA, Pratt only completed 40.9% of his passes, marking a season low. Despite not being sacked more than twice in any game this season, Pratt is now up against a formidable Mustangs pass rush that ranks in the top 20 in sack percentage and pressure rate.
If SMU quarterback Preston Stone is unable to play due to a leg injury sustained against Navy last week, it could greatly affect the outcome of the game. Stone’s impressive performance in the first quarter of last week’s win, where he threw for 275 yards, set a season record for passing yards by any FBS quarterback in a single quarter. It will be important to monitor his availability, as the other three Mustangs who attempted passes last week had lower yards per attempt averages.
If Stone is ruled out, we expect more of our top sports betting apps like BetMGM and bet365 to offer moneyline odds higher than +158.
Our expert Green Finnian delves further into the upcoming AAC Championship game, providing his predictions for the matchup between SMU and Tulane.
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Louisville vs. Florida State (+135 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Despite losing starting quarterback Jordan Travis for the remainder of the season, it is hard to believe that the College Football Playoff committee would exclude an undefeated Power Five team from the top four rankings. Anticipating some excitement this weekend, the drama will kick off with Louisville defeating its ACC rival.
The Florida State Seminoles dominated the Gators, limiting them to just 48 total yards in the second half with backup quarterback Max Brown. Despite a modest passing performance from backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker, the Seminoles were able to secure the win. However, Louisville is expected to challenge Florida State’s rushing game and force Rodemaker to rely on his passing skills against their strong defense. Despite a loss to Kentucky, the Cardinals were able to contain the SEC’s third-leading rusher, Ray Davis, and limit the Wildcats to just 3.3 yards per carry as a team.
Despite last week’s loss, Louisville had more yards than Kentucky, converted a high percentage of third and fourth downs, and controlled the time of possession by over 13 minutes. There are still positives to take away from the game, and despite the odds shifting in Louisville’s favor, there is still good value with bet365’s moneyline odds compared to BetMGM’s line changing from +165 to +120.
Check out my prediction for the Louisville vs. Florida State game and Morgan Xaviero’s player props for the college football matchup.
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Upset picks for college football games on November 27, 2023 were chosen at 4:14 p.m. ET.
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