New Mexico State vs. Liberty Prediction, Picks & Odds: Conference USA Championship
The Conference USA Championship on Friday will see the New Mexico State Aggies take on the undefeated Liberty Flames. Our expert prediction for the game is based on the latest college football odds from top betting sites.
In their Week 2 matchup against the New Mexico State Aggies, the Liberty Flames delivered a dominant performance, excelling in both offense and defense to secure a convincing 33-17 victory. With 526 total yards compared to the Aggies’ 341, a 3-1 turnover advantage, and controlling possession for nearly 16 minutes more, the Flames displayed superior control and efficiency. These stats underscored their mastery in various aspects of the game, solidifying their dominance in the contest.
Even though they have won eight games in a row, the Aggies are considered 10.5-point underdogs against one of the only five undefeated teams left in college football.
In our Week 14 college football predictions and best bets, we are sharing our top pick for the New Mexico State vs. Liberty game. Our college football picks are based on odds from top betting sites and rated on a 1 to 5-star scale for confidence.
New Mexico State vs. Liberty prediction: Conference USA Championship
Liberty team total Over 34.5 (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Since their meeting on Sept. 9, both teams have controlled the tempo of play in their games against other opponents.
Liberty’s offense has been on fire, scoring over 38 points in six consecutive games and in eight of their last 10 games since Week 2. On the other hand, New Mexico State’s defense has been solid, allowing only 19.7 points per game this season, which is the 20th best in college football.
The variety of styles present in this game make it difficult to predict. During their first matchup, the Aggies held a 17-13 lead halfway through the second quarter, but the Flames scored 20 unanswered points to win. Was the tightness of the game a coincidence, or did Liberty benefit from some good fortune in covering the spread?
The ambiguity partly removes the opportunity for a spread bet, but we still believe the Flames will score a lot in this game.
Liberty is on the verge of an undefeated season and conference title as they prepare to play in their home stadium, where they have scored at least 33 points in six out of seven games this season. Meanwhile, New Mexico State’s defensive statistics have been boosted by facing struggling Conference USA offenses.
Liberty’s Kaidon Salter and Quinton Cooley are exceptional players in Conference USA, and they will showcase their skills in ways that other teams have not been able to against the Aggies.
Although the Flames are expected to score a lot, the Aggies’ offensive capabilities remain uncertain. They have averaged 28.2 points per game, and their impressive 31-10 victory over the Auburn Tigers on the road in Week 12 demonstrated their potential. However, their offense has shown inconsistencies throughout the season, leaving open the possibility that Liberty may limit them to under 20 points for the second time this year.
As a result, the most secure option at our top college football betting sites for this match is to support the Flames’ offense, which is the strongest unit on the field.
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New Mexico State vs. Liberty best odds
DraftKings (+100)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 34.5 | N/A | N/A | Over 34.5 | Over 34 |
| +100 | N/A | N/A | +100 | -110 |
At the moment, only three top sportsbooks are offering this particular prop bet. Although we would prefer a lower option, the prices for Over 32.5 or lower are currently quite steep. Our suggestion is to place a bet on Over 34.5 at DraftKings or Caesars now, and consider placing another bet at a different sportsbook if they offer a lower total for -110 or better in the future.
As the total for this game decreases on our top sports betting apps, there is a strong possibility that you may be able to find a lower number closer to the start of the game. If you are hesitant to bet on the Over 34.5 at +100, you may want to consider a wait-and-see strategy at some of our college football betting sites.
New Mexico State vs. Liberty odds
New Mexico State vs. Liberty odds analysis
Originally favored by 13.5 points, Liberty’s spread has decreased to 10.5 or 11 on top sports betting apps. Despite 56% of bets supporting the Flames to cover, oddsmakers are not swayed by public opinion. Expect the spread to remain between 10.5 and 12.5 without hitting any significant numbers.
In terms of the total points bet, it originally started at 56.5 but has since decreased to 56 or 55.5 at three out of the top five sports betting sites. The previous game between these teams only scored 50 points, and 67% of bettors are predicting the total points will be under in the rematch. These factors strongly suggest that the total points bet will continue to decrease as the week progresses.
New Mexico State vs. Liberty game info
- When: Friday, Dec., 1 at 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, VA
- How to watch: CBSSN
- Weather: 44 degrees, 5-mph winds, 25% chance of precipitation
Prediction for the New Mexico State vs. Liberty game on 11/29/2023 was made at 1:02 p.m. ET.
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