New Mexico State vs. Liberty Prediction, Picks & Odds: Conference USA Championship
The Conference USA Championship on Friday will see the New Mexico State Aggies face off against the undefeated Liberty Flames. We are here to provide you with our top prediction for the New Mexico State vs. Liberty game, taking into account the college football odds from our top college football betting sites.
The Liberty Flames put on a dominant display in their Week 2 game against the New Mexico State Aggies, showcasing excellence in both offense and defense on their way to a convincing 33-17 win. With 526 yards of total offense compared to the Aggies’ 341, a 3-1 turnover advantage, and nearly 16 minutes more time of possession, the Flames demonstrated remarkable control and efficiency. These stats underscored their mastery in all areas of the game, solidifying their superiority throughout the contest.
Even with eight consecutive wins under their belt, the Aggies are still considered 10.5-point underdogs against one of the few remaining undefeated teams in college football.
In our analysis of college football Week 14 matchups and top bets, we present our top prediction for the New Mexico State vs. Liberty game and our selection of college football picks (odds sourced from the finest college football betting platforms; pick confidence rated on a 1-to-5-star scale).
New Mexico State vs. Liberty prediction: Conference USA Championship
Liberty team total Over 34.5 (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Since their meeting on Sept. 9, both teams have controlled the pace of play in their games against other opponents.
Liberty’s offense has been on fire, scoring 38 or more points in six consecutive games and eight of the last 10 since their Week 2 game. On the other hand, New Mexico State’s defense has been strong, allowing only 19.7 points per game this season, which ranks 20th in college football.
The variety of playing styles in this game makes it difficult to predict the outcome. In their previous matchup, the Aggies held a 17-13 lead in the second quarter before the Flames scored 20 unanswered points to win. Was the close score a coincidence, or did Liberty benefit from luck in covering the spread?
The lack of clarity makes it difficult to predict the spread, but we do expect the Flames to score many points in this game.
Liberty is aiming for an unbeaten season and conference championship in their home stadium, where they have scored at least 33 points in six out of seven games this season. New Mexico State’s defensive statistics are also inflated due to facing several struggling Conference USA offenses.
Liberty QB Kaidon Salter and running back Quinton Cooley are exceptional players in Conference USA, poised to outshine the Aggies in ways that no other team has been able to.
Although the Flames are predicted to have a high scoring game, the performance of the Aggies’ offense remains uncertain. Despite their impressive 31-10 victory over the Auburn Tigers in Week 12, where they averaged 28.2 points per game, the Aggies have shown inconsistency throughout the season. There is a possibility that Liberty could limit them to under 20 points for the second time this year.
As a result, the smartest choice on our top college football betting sites for this matchup is to support the strongest unit on the field, which is the Flames’ offense.
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New Mexico State vs. Liberty best odds
DraftKings (+100)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 34.5 | N/A | N/A | Over 34.5 | Over 34 |
| +100 | N/A | N/A | +100 | -110 |
At the moment, only three of our top sportsbooks offer this prop. Although we wish the price was lower for Over 32.5, the prices for that or lower are quite high. We suggest placing a bet on Over 34.5 at DraftKings or Caesars now, and considering placing a bet at another sportsbook if they offer a lower total for -110 or better.
The total for this game is decreasing on our top sports betting apps, so there is a possibility of getting a lower number closer to kickoff. If you are hesitant to bet Over 34.5 at +100, it might be wise to wait and see on some of our college football betting sites.
New Mexico State vs. Liberty odds
New Mexico State vs. Liberty odds analysis
Liberty started as a 13.5-point favorite, but the spread has now decreased to 10.5 or 11 on our top sports betting apps. Although 56% of bets are supporting the Flames to cover the spread, oddsmakers appear unfazed by public action, so expect the number to remain between 10.5 and 12.5 without hitting any significant milestones.
Regarding the total, it initially started at 56.5 but has since decreased to 56 or 55.5 at three out of the top five sports betting sites. The previous matchup between these teams resulted in only 50 points, and 67% of bettors are predicting the Under for the rematch. These factors suggest that the total will likely decrease further as the week progresses.
New Mexico State vs. Liberty game info
- When: Friday, Dec., 1 at 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, VA
- How to watch: CBSSN
- Weather: 44 degrees, 5-mph winds, 25% chance of precipitation
Prediction for New Mexico State vs. Liberty game on 11/29/2023 at 1:02 p.m. ET.
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