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Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland celebrates with the trophy as we look at our best PGA Championship first-round leader picks
Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland celebrates with the trophy after winning the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club. Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images via AFP.

Every golfer in the 156-member field believes they have a chance to defeat tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler and claim victory in the second major of the year as the first round of the 2024 PGA Championship begins Thursday morning. To help you make your picks, we have compiled expert selections for the first-round leader based on the odds from our top golf betting sites.

The PGA Championship odds have Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Brooks Koepka listed as strong favorites to win the second major of the season. Despite their low odds in a competitive field, betting on any of these players comes with a significant amount of risk. However, choosing a different player as a potential winner may seem a bit risky at the start of the tournament.

Now, let’s focus on the PGA Championship first-round leader odds and our top choices. Similar to the start of the NFL season or the first day of MLB, the competition is wide open, with almost anyone having a chance to take the lead. The odds for the favorites in the tournament are likely to be at their peak during this initial phase.

The 2024 PGA Championship will begin with tee times starting at 7:15 a.m. ET, as Michael Block takes the honor of hitting the ceremonial first shot.

In addition to our expert PGA Championship picks, here are our top selections for first-round leaders, determined by the odds provided by our recommended sports betting sites.

PGA Championship first-round leader odds

Please be aware that the first-round leader market will be settled once all players have finished their first 18 holes. In case of a weather or darkness delay, this may occur on Friday morning.

NameDraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Scottie Scheffler+1400+1400+1200 ❄️+1400+1400
Rory McIlroy+2000+2000+1600 ❄️+1800+1800
Brooks Koepka+2500+2500+2500+2500+2500
Jon Rahm+2800+2800+2800+2800+3000 
Xander Schauffele+3000+3000+2800+3000+2500 ❄️
Ludvig Aberg+3500 +3300+2800 ❄️+3000+3000
Bryson DeChambeau+3500+3500+3300 ❄️+3500+3500
Joaquin Niemann+4000+4000+4000+4000+4000
Collin Morikawa+4000+4000+3300 ❄️+4000+3500
Max Homa+4000+4000+4000+4000+3500 ❄️

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How to bet on the first-round leader market

Placing bets on the first-round leader market in golf can bring an extra level of excitement to tournaments as you predict which player will have the best score after the opening round. To begin, analyze players with a history of strong starts and take into account their recent performances, course history, and possible weather conditions. To fully understand the market, look into individual player odds or larger groupings based on factors such as world rankings or tee times.

Just like any wager, it is important to handle risks and rewards with care. Although the potential rewards may be alluring, keep in mind that golf is full of surprises, and anything can happen in a single round. By closely analyzing player performances and course conditions, you can make better-informed choices when placing bets on the first-round leader market and improve your overall golf betting enjoyment.

In this market, the tournament favorites typically have higher odds compared to the outright win, while players with longer odds in the outright betting market will have shorter odds.

First-round leader picks

Rory McIlroy

For those who didn’t take advantage of McIlroy’s high odds to win the PGA Championship last week, it’s time to focus on this market now. Consider placing bets on the wire-to-wire winner as well.

McIlroy’s chances of winning his first major since 2014, and his second consecutive at Valhalla Golf Club, have decreased to a consensus of +750. In the 18-hole market, a $10 bet at +2000 odds would yield a profit of $200, compared to the potential $75 return for winning the tournament.

McIlroy is not only basking in the glory of his recent five-stroke win at the Wells Fargo Championship, but he also has the advantage of teeing off at 8:15 a.m. ET on Thursday, the preferred time slot. With his strong performance in strokes gained: off-the-tee and driving distance, he will have an edge over the competition as the course is expected to be softer after recent rainfall.

The greens will be at their easiest on Thursday morning before drying out and speeding up later in the day and throughout the weekend.

Top odds: +2000 on FanDuel

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Bryson DeChambeau

After DeChambeau took the 18-hole lead in the Masters at 7-under par, just one stroke ahead of Scheffler, it seems like he is cherry-picking a little bit. Valhalla Golf Club is known to favor long hitters, which works in DeChambeau’s favor. Similar to Rory, he is expected to benefit from his early-morning tee time as he heads to the 10th tee at 8:59 a.m. ET.

When DeChambeau is at his best, no one in the golf field, or any other, can match his distance. The softer greens will also benefit his approach and putting performance early in the day.

DeChambeau is currently a +2000 favorite to win the tournament, meaning a $10 bet could yield a $350 profit.

Top odds: +3500 at bet365

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Byeong Hun An

An began the Masters tournament at 2-under par and tied for eighth place after completing 18 holes. He currently ranks 13th on the PGA Tour this season for Round 1 scoring average. An also recently achieved a third-place finish in the Wells Fargo Championship, which helped him reach a career-high 23rd in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR).

An underrated long driver, An is currently in top form with his putting, boasting 2.01 strokes gained per round at Quail Hollow, marking one of the best weeks of his career.

He is scheduled to start his round at 8:10 a.m. ET, alongside Alexander Bjork and Eric Cole as his partners.

Top odds: +6000 on BetMGM

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PGA Championship betting pages

PGA Championship weather

Following two days of rain disrupting practice rounds at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Ky., the weather for the remainder of the 2024 PGA Championship is expected to be clear.

On Thursday, expect a combination of sunshine and clouds with a low chance of rain at 20%. Friday will bring a higher likelihood of showers, but the total rainfall is expected to be less than 0.5 inches for the day.

The upcoming weekend is looking fantastic, with Saturday and Sunday expected to be the highlight days. Temperatures will be warm, reaching the mid-80s on Saturday and soaring to a high of 93 degrees on Sunday. There is a minimal chance of rain, with a 20% chance or less on both days.

Throughout all four days, the winds will be consistently at approximately 10 miles per hour, with the strongest gusts expected on Sunday reaching up to 19 mph.

How to bet on golf

Placing bets on the PGA Championship can bring thrill and excitement, especially if you have some knowledge about the sport. Let’s delve into the details.

  • Understanding the odds: Start by familiarizing yourself with American odds. For example, if a golfer has odds of +1200, it means a $100 bet could win you $1,200 if they win the tournament. Conversely, if a golfer has odds of -200, you’d need to bet $200 to win $100.
  • Researching the players: Take time to research the players competing in the PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club. Look into their recent performances, course history, and how they fare on similar courses. For instance, if a golfer has a history of performing well on challenging courses like Valhalla, they might be worth considering.
  • Course conditions and strategy: Valhalla Golf Club is known for its challenging layout and demanding conditions. Consider how golfers with strong driving accuracy and precise iron play might excel here. Keep an eye on how the course conditions evolve throughout the tournament, as this can impact player performance and betting odds.
  • Betting markets: In addition to outright winner bets, explore other betting markets like top-5 or top-10 finishes, head-to-head matchups between specific golfers, and prop bets on individual player performances. These markets offer different ways to bet on the tournament and can provide additional opportunities for value.

To increase your chances of success when betting on the PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club, be sure to analyze the odds, study the players and course conditions, and explore various betting markets. Best of luck!

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