2024 PGA Championship Picks & Top Finishes: Target Niemann, Aberg for Valhalla Golf Club
The 106th PGA Championship begins on Thursday, and we are here to provide you with our predictions for the winners and top finishers. Our selections for the 2024 PGA Championship are made using the odds from top golf betting sites.
The prestigious Valhalla Golf Club, designed by the legendary Jack Nicklaus, will host the 2024 PGA Championship starting this Thursday in northwest Kentucky.
Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Brooks Koepka are the top favorites in the PGA Championship odds, setting the stage for a fierce competition among golf’s best players.
Although there was a short suspension during Tuesday’s practice round because of bad weather, excitement is still high for an exciting tournament. While there may be thunder and lightning on Friday, the weekend forecast indicates that there will be little rain, making way for a smooth and thrilling competition.
In addition to Evans Santiago’s expert picks for the PGA Championship, we have compiled our own 2024 PGA Championship selections for Valhalla Golf Club using odds from top sports betting sites, with confidence ratings ranging from 1 to 5 stars.
2024 PGA Championship picks
- Pick to win: Joaquin Niemann (+3500 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Top 5 pick: Ludvig Aberg (+400 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Top 10 pick: Sepp Straka (+750 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Top 20 pick: Cam Davis (+500 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Top 30 pick: Tom Hoge (+320 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Top 40 pick: Ben Griffin (+275 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Valhalla Golf Club course info
- Par: 71
- Length: 7,609 yards
- Greens: Bentgrass, 13+ stimp
- Architect: Jack Nicklaus
Valhalla will have a completely new look compared to previous years, as the course has been significantly extended. The 2024 PGA Championship is also scheduled for a different time of year than the last time Valhalla hosted this major tournament in August.
Having a long drive will give you an edge, but with a quicker growth season, hitting the fairway is crucial as the rough is now four inches or more, even longer than at last week’s PGA Tour Signature Event in Quail Hollow.
Golfers who excel at finding and utilizing the short grass on longer approach shots will have a significant advantage in ball striking, making it a crucial skill to focus on this week.
PGA Championship pick to win
Joaquin Niemann ⭐⭐⭐
Looking for a winner outside of Scheffler (+400) can be challenging, and the possibility of Rory McIlroy (+750) possibly peaking too early once again may seem like selecting the easy option at a course where he has previously won a PGA Championship.
I believe both options are still viable, but we are looking for value in our odds. Niemann offers good value at 35-to-1 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Aberg, the golfer just below Niemann, is +2000 for a win. If his knee is healthy, I think that would also be a smart investment.
Niemann has been excelling in elite-level golf on the LIV circuit. He has secured two victories and achieved four additional top 10 finishes, including two top 5 finishes. Despite not playing his best, Niemann performed well at Augusta National, finishing in 22nd place.
He possesses the necessary tools to compete at a world-class level and has the perfect distance for Valhalla. Although not the most accurate player, he is still skilled and can use his strengths to his advantage. If he can avoid struggles with his putter, he has a good chance of being a contender in Kentucky.
According to Data Golf, Niemann has one of the strongest correlations between his scores and course fit. He has already secured multiple victories this year on various tours, proving himself as a skilled winner. Despite his success, he is currently priced as the 10th most likely golfer to win. Only Scheffler, McIlroy, and Koepka, who have also won this season, are priced ahead of him.
Top odds: +3500 at FanDuel
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Check out Neimann’s ranking in Santiago’s PGA Championship power rankings, and be sure to take a look at our long-shot picks for some higher odds this week.
PGA Championship top finishes
Top 5: Ludvig Aberg ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The only reason I am hesitating to give this a five-star rating is because of the uncertain status of Aberg’s knee injury. He decided to take an extra week to rest after withdrawing from the Wells Fargo Championship before Round 1.
Aberg lives up to the hype as golf’s rising star, consistently finishing in the top 20 since January. In the last 16 rounds, he ranks in the top 10 of every statistical category for the PGA Championship field except for putting.
He ranks third in total driving on the PGA Tour, showcasing an impressive combination of distance and accuracy that is only matched by Scheffler and Min Woo Lee. However, Lee has yet to fully develop the other aspects of his game like Scheffler and Aberg have.
Aberg narrowly missed out on winning the green jacket to Scheffler in his debut major. He later secured a Ryder Cup victory and possesses the skills and mindset needed for major championships. With odds of 4-1, betting on one of the top players in the world, especially at a course that suits him perfectly, seems like a steal. The only concern is his knee injury, so keeping an eye on his health status leading up to Thursday is crucial.
Caesars offers the best odds at +400.
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Top 10: Sepp Straka ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
If Straka had a bit more distance off the tee, I would consider ranking him even higher. Nonetheless, his odds are impressive considering he ranks in the top 10 of the field in accuracy, ball striking, and approach. He is also among the top 20 in strokes gained: putting, off-the-tee, and tee-to-green. In addition, he is sixth in my trend table, indicating he is in good form. Straka has been playing exceptionally well in the past two months.
Straka has achieved top 10 finishes in two consecutive weeks and placed in the top 20 in two out of his last five tournaments. His top 10 finishes were in prestigious events, including a 16th place at this year’s first major. For those looking for a safer bet, there is a favorable +250 price tag on a top 20 finish.
Top odds: +750 at bet365
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Top 20: Cam Davis ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Davis comes into the PGA Championship after delivering average performances at the Wells Fargo and RBC Heritage events. While Harbour Town did not play to his strengths, Davis showed improvement at Quail Hollow, the Australian’s game.
Davis consistently hits the ball nearly 300 yards off the tee and is ranked in the top 15% on the PGA Tour for total driving, which combines accuracy and distance. With a strong performance at the Masters and confidence in his abilities, he is a promising pick for success on a course that suits his game.
Top odds: +500 offered by BetMGM
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Top 30: Tom Hoge ⭐⭐⭐
My main worry about Hoge is his lack of distance, especially since this will be his first major of the year after skipping the Masters. Despite this, Hoge has only missed one cut this season and has participated in every Signature Event. He is ranked in the top quarter of the field in SG: approach, ball striking, and tee-to-green, and is also in the top third of the field in putting.
He is extremely precise with his tee shots, and should definitely be playing from the fairway more often. Hoge has achieved eight top 30 finishes in 14 events, which is an impressive rate, especially considering his odds are above 3-1.
The most favorable odds are +320 on FanDuel.
Top 40: Ben Griffin ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Griffin consistently performs well in every major statistical category, with the exception of SG: off-the-tee, where his average distance puts him in the middle of the pack. His recent performances show that he ranks in the top quarter of the full field trend table, indicating that his game is in top form. Griffin has made the cut in seven out of his last nine events, further demonstrating his strong and consistent play.
In the last four events over the past two months, he has consistently placed within the top 40. With his exceptional putting and approach game, he is likely to stay competitive and remain in contention for a top 40 finish.
Top odds: +275 on bet365
PGA Championship betting pages
- PGA Championship odds
- PGA Championship picks
- First-round leader picks
- PGA Championship matchups picks
- PGA Championship expert picks
- PGA Championship long-shot picks
- PGA Championship power rankings
- PGA Championship props
How to bet on golf
To bet on golf successfully, one must have a good understanding of the different types of bets available and how to analyze player performance. Begin by learning about the various common bets in golf, such as outright winner bets, each-way bets (which cover both a win and a top finish), head-to-head matchups, and proposition bets on specific events within a tournament. These bets can include predicting hole-in-one occurrences or individual player performances on certain holes.
After determining the types of bets you prefer, investigate player statistics, course conditions, recent form, and other key factors that could impact results. Take note of player performances in recent tournaments, their history on the course, and any injuries or changes in form that could affect their gameplay.
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