MLB Player Props & Expert Picks for Friday: Gausman’s Struggles Against Winning Teams to Continue?
After a Fourth of July holiday filled with exciting series finales, fifteen new series are set to begin on Friday in Major League Baseball. We have you covered with our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday based on the most favorable MLB odds.
The Los Angeles Angels will kick off Friday’s MLB action at 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field against the Chicago Cubs, who currently sit in last place in the NL Central and are on track to finish in that position for the first time since 2014.
Our first MLB player props wager comes from one of the biggest rivalries in the sport, as the New York Yankees take on the Boston Red Sox at 7:05 p.m. ET.
At the end of the day, every American League division race will be tightly contested with six or fewer games separating first and second place, while every National League first-place team will maintain at least a six-game lead.
Friday’s MLB expert picks
Our top MLB betting sites provide odds for MLB picks, with confidence levels rated on a 1-5 star scale.
- Nestor Cortes Under 2.5 earned runs (-155 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Trea Turner Over 0.5 runs (+120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Bobby Witt Jr. Over 3.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Kevin Gausman Under 6.5 strikeouts (+128 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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MLB player props
Nestor Cortes Under 2.5 earned runs ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Information about the game between the Red Sox and Yankees: Moneyline odds are Red Sox (-140 with bet365), Total runs expected is 8.5 with bet365, Game starts at 7:05 p.m. Eastern Time.
Yankees left-handed pitcher Cortes displays significant differences in performance between home and away games. In nine home starts, he has a 1.84 ERA, a 57:6 K:BB ratio, and a .195 OBA. However, in nine road starts, his ERA rises to 5.63 with a 41:13 K:BB ratio and a .295 OBA.
Despite returning in 2022, Cortes managed to keep the Red Sox from scoring in his only home start against them, maintaining his undefeated record in ten career appearances, including four starts. He will need to bring his A-game once more as he faces off against Cy Young candidate Tanner Houck.
Despite ranking in the top five in wOBA and BABIP against left-handed pitchers in road games since June, the Red Sox were limited to two runs over six innings by Miami Marlins’ lefty Trevor Rogers, who has a 1-9 record this season.
This play with a high level of confidence will earn you $16.45 on a $10 bet.
DraftKings offers the best odds at -155, with an implied probability of 60.78%.
Terms and conditions apply.
Trea Turner Over 0.5 runs ⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | +115 | -110 | +115 | N/A | +120 |
Information about the game between the Phillies and Braves: Moneyline odds favor the Braves at -150 according to bet365, with a total of 7.5 points also set by bet365. The game will start at 7:20 p.m. Eastern Time.
Without sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, the Phillies are relying more on their All-Star infielders, Turner and Alec Bohm, to carry the offensive load. Turner has been exceptional recently, leading the team with a .423/.444/.769 slash line over the past seven days.
Turner has been highly effective in his matchups against Atlanta Braves lefty Max Fried, boasting an impressive 11-for-31 record with three walks and a .928 OPS. Given the expected scarcity of runs against Atlanta’s top pitcher, Turner is likely to be aggressive on the basepaths, where he has successfully stolen 10 out of 11 attempts this season. With six runs scored in his last three games, we are confident in predicting Turner will score again tonight, backing this wager with a three-star play.
We can take advantage of the favorable +120 odds at bet365, where a $10 bet could yield $22 in winnings. This is because FanDuel has an implied probability of 52.38% for Turner to score at least one run.
Greatest chance of winning: +120 on bet365 | Probability of winning: 45.45%
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Bobby Witt Jr. Over 3.5 hits + runs + RBIs ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | -105 | N/A | N/A | N/A | -110 |
Information for the game between the Royals and Rockies: Moneyline odds favor the Royals (-180 according to bet365), with a total of 10.5 points also from bet365. The game is set to start at 8:10 p.m. Eastern Time.
Witt Jr. and the Royals are set to start a three-game series at Coors Field, known as the most hitter-friendly ballpark. This has us eager to support his player props, especially with a left-handed pitcher on the mound.
Witt Jr. has had great success against left-handed pitchers with a .321/.339/.500 slash line. He will be facing Kyle Freeland, who has struggled against right-handed batters this season with a .333 batting average and .922 OPS. Witt was on track to score 125 runs this season before a two-run game on Wednesday. In five of the last six games, the shortstop has contributed three or more runs, hits, and RBIs.
Witt’s hits/runs/RBIs stats will be accessible at BetMGM later, but FanDuel and Caesars usually only offer individual batter statistics if that’s what interests you. While getting four or more hits, runs, and RBIs may seem challenging, DraftKings states that Witt has a 51.22% chance of achieving this. We are confident in this probability and are willing to place a $10 bet that would yield a $19.52 payout.
DraftKings has the best odds at -105, which implies a probability of 51.22%.
Kevin Gausman Under 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | +125 | +124 | +125 | N/A | +128 |
Information on the game between the Blue Jays and Mariners: Moneyline favors the Mariners (-150 on bet365), Total set at 7.5 on bet365, Game starts at 9:40 p.m. ET.
Gausman’s performance on the mound has been inconsistent since June, with varying results depending on the level of competition. When facing teams with a losing record, he has only given up two earned runs in 26 1/3 innings over his last four starts. However, when facing teams with a .500 or better record, he has struggled, allowing 35 runs in 36 2/3 innings over his last seven starts for an alarming 8.59 ERA. This raises concerns about his upcoming matchup against the first-place Mariners.
Seattle’s offense struggled recently, scoring more than three runs in just one of its previous eight games before Thursday’s seven-run explosion. This should boost the Mariners’ confidence against Gausman, who may be overrated despite holding current Mariners hitters to a .198 OBA and .630 OPS in 81 at-bats.
We are attracted to bet365’s +128 odds because of Gausman’s inconsistency against strong teams. Despite the 43.86% implied probability, a $10 bet at bet365 yields $22.80, slightly more than the $22.40 return with FanDuel’s +124 odds.
Top odds: +128 at bet365 | Probability of winning: 43.86%
MLB player props were established at 7:46 a.m. ET on Friday.
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- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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Related pages
- Best Live Betting Sites | Best Underscoreg Promos (U.S. only)
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