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MLB Player Props & Expert Picks for Saturday: Will Crochet Add to Marlins’ Struggles Against Southpaws?

Allen Byron

Updated as of July 6, 2024 at 9:38 AM EDT • Read time: 4 minutes and 59 seconds. For more information, visit the Twitter and Google News links.

Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Garrett Crochet leaves the field after throwing to the Minnesota Twins in the fifth inning at Target Field as we look at our MLB best bets for Saturday.
Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Garrett Crochet leaves the field after throwing to the Minnesota Twins in the fifth inning at Target Field. Photo by Bruce Kluckhohn/USA TODAY Sports.

There is a packed 15-game schedule in Major League Baseball for the second to last Saturday before the All-Star Break. Check out our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday based on the most favorable MLB odds.

The New York Yankees entered Friday’s series opener against the Boston Red Sox on the heels of a sweep by the Cincinnati Reds at home. This marked the first time since interleague play began in 1997 that an NL opponent had achieved a three-game sweep at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees continued their struggles with a 5-3 loss to the Red Sox, extending their record to 4-14 since June 15, the worst in baseball during that period.

The first MLB player prop bet of the day comes from Yankee Stadium, where the Yankees and Red Sox kick off the action at 1:05 p.m. ET. Following that, the Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins face off at 2:10 p.m. ET at Target Field as they aim to catch up with the top teams in their divisions.

Saturday’s MLB expert picks

We make MLB picks based on odds using the top MLB betting sites. Our picks are rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars for confidence.

This content is not meant for MAAffiliate disclosure: Underscoreg Review may earn advertising commissions for referrals to a sportsbook.

MLB player props

Rafael Devers Over 0.5 RBIs ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Odds+125+110+130+123+135

Information about the game between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees: The Yankees are favored to win with a moneyline of -200 according to bet365. The total score is set at 9. The game will start at 1:05 p.m. Eastern Time.

In the series opener on Friday, Rafael Devers had the most impressive performance of any player in the Boston lineup over the past week. He had a team-leading OPS of 1.126 and a slash line of .318/.444/.682 during that time.

Devers’ strong performance against Yankees ace Gerrit Cole has been a major factor in Cole’s struggles against the Red Sox. In 36 career at-bats, Devers has hit .306 with a .375 on-base percentage and a .917 slugging percentage against Cole. Eight of his 11 hits against the righty have gone for extra bases.

In 17 career starts against Boston, Cole has a 4.68 ERA, the highest among the 14 opponents he’s faced at least nine times. Despite winning the Cy Young Award in 2023, he has only made three starts this season and has not performed at his best. While he showed improvement in his last outing with 61 of his 90 pitches being strikes, Devers is a good bet to drive in at least one run against Cole, who is currently overvalued. Devers has achieved two or more RBIs in four of his last five games, making him a strong pick for this matchup.

His odds of +135 at bet365 make it worth the wager, despite the 42.55% implied probability of Devers driving in a run. Additionally, bet365 offers a higher potential payout of $23.50 on a $10 winning wager, compared to FanDuel’s $21 payout.

Top odds: +135 with bet365 | Probability of winning: 42.55%

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Hunter Brown Under 2.5 earned runs ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Odds-120N/A-125-119-120

Information for the game between the Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins: The Twins are favored to win with a moneyline of -130 according to bet365, and the total points over/under is set at 7.5. The game will start at 2:10 p.m. ET.

Hunter Brown made a strong case for being named the AL Pitcher of the Month in June with his impressive performance. He had a 1.22 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, along with a 45:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the six starts leading up to his latest outing. In his most recent game on July 1 against the Toronto Blue Jays, he pitched six scoreless innings and only allowed two hits on the road.

In his last five starts, Brown has held opponents to two or fewer runs each time he has pitched. Additionally, no opponent has scored more than four runs against him since May 11, covering a span of 10 games.

This play is rated at three stars due to our strategy of relying on Brown’s impressive performance while betting against a Twins offense that has excelled in wOBA (.398) and BABIP (.342) at home games against right-handed pitchers in June. Despite this, Minnesota’s top hitter Royce Lewis is once again on the IL, weakening their lineup significantly.

Our top sports betting sites are in agreement on Brown’s earned runs odds. However, Caesars offers the highest implied probability of him staying under 2.5 earned runs at 54.34%, potentially resulting in a $21.90 payout on a $10 bet.

Caesars offers the best odds at -119, implying a probability of 54.34%.

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Garrett Crochet to record a win ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Odds-105N/AN/A-101+100

Information for the game between the Chicago White Sox and Miami Marlins: The White Sox are favored to win with a moneyline of -155 from Betway. The total score is set at 6.5 according to bet365. The game is scheduled to start at 4:10 p.m. ET.

The Chicago White Sox are favored for only the sixth time in 2024. Despite being road favorites for the first time, they have already won four out of five games when favored this season.

Supporting Garrett Crochet to secure the victory is a smart strategy to counteract Chicago’s high moneyline odds (up to -165 at bet365), especially since the Marlins have the worst record in the MLB at 4-26 against left-handed starting pitchers this season.

Crochet recently won the AL Pitcher of the Month award for June after posting a 1.91 ERA and striking out 56 batters in 57 2/3 innings. In May, he had a remarkable 0.93 ERA in five starts.

We choose bet365 as our preferred sportsbook for this bet because it is the only one that offers plus-money odds (a $10 winning wager would return $20) and has a 50% implied probability that Crochet will be the game’s winning pitcher.

The odds of +100 at bet365 offer a 50% implied probability of winning.

Marcell Ozuna Under 1.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Odds-145N/A-145-145-140

Philadelphia Phillies will face off against Atlanta Braves with the Braves favored to win at -115 odds on bet365. The total score is set at 8.5 according to bet365. The game will begin at 7:15 p.m. Eastern Time.

Marcell Ozuna is the top performer for the Atlanta Braves in almost every offensive statistic, with a batting average of .296, 22 home runs, 70 RBIs, an on-base percentage of .377, and 94 hits.

Despite hitting a three-run homer late in Friday’s game, Ozuna entered the series opener against the Philadelphia Phillies in a hitting slump, going 4-for-31 with only two extra-base hits in the previous nine games. His history against Phillies pitcher Ranger Suarez, a left-handed pitcher, suggests that he may struggle on Saturday, as he has a .200 batting average with five strikeouts in 15 career at-bats against Suarez.

Suarez is having a standout season, with career-best numbers in walk rate (5.2%), ERA (2.27), and xERA (2.96). He also ranks highly in barrels and ground ball rate, making the odds of Ozuna going Under 1.5 total bases seem reasonable.

At bet365, the potential payout on a $10 wager is $17.14, which is slightly higher than the $16.90 payout offered by all other top sports betting apps with -145 odds.

The best odds are -140 on bet365, which implies a probability of 58.33%.

MLB player props were created on Saturday at 5:38 a.m. Eastern Time.

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Written By:
Allen Byron
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he’s especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike’s a big advocate of “fading the public” and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that “there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas.” When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He’s tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”