MLB Player Props & Expert Picks for Monday: Elly Keeps on Cruising
The most recent occurrence of a Cincinnati Red stealing over 60 bases in a season coincided with Ken Anderson as the Bengals’ starting quarterback.
Elly De La Cruz is expected to change that soon and we anticipate him increasing his total on Monday when he faces the Colorado Rockies at 7:10 p.m. ET as part of our MLB player props.
During a calm day in Major League Baseball, rookie All-Star Steven Kwan is poised to make a statement with the Cleveland Guardians facing off against the Detroit Tigers. With hopes of increasing his slim chances of winning the MLB MVP award, Kwan is ready to shine on the field.
I am also watching the Washington Nationals take on the St. Louis Cardinals at 4:05 p.m. ET, as well as the Minnesota Twins, who are steadily increasing their World Series chances, facing off against the Chicago White Sox at 8:10 p.m. ET.
Monday’s MLB expert picks
Our MLB picks are determined by odds from our top MLB betting sites, with confidence levels rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.
- CJ Abrams Over 1.5 total bases (-111 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Steven Kwan Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+135 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 steal (+155 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Byron Buxton Over 0.5 home run (+280 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
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MLB player props
CJ Abrams Over 1.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 1.5 (-115) | Over 1.5 (-135) | Over 1.5 (-111) | Over 1.5 (-115) | Over 1.5 (-115) |
Game information: Cardinals will be playing against the Nationals. The Nationals are favored to win with a moneyline of -115 according to bet365. The total score is set at over 9 with odds of -110 or under 9 with odds of -110 at bet365. The game is scheduled to start at 4:05 p.m. Eastern Time.
It’s uncertain if anyone beyond Washington D.C. is paying attention to the Nationals this season to appreciate the impact CJ Abrams has made in his second full year with the team. The sixth overall pick has secured his first All-Star nod after a stellar performance in June.
Abrams has been on fire recently, hitting .374/.464/.663 with 55 total bases in 22 games last month. He’s averaging 2.3 total bases per game in June and July, bouncing back from a slow May. The 23-year-old is expected to continue his hot streak against the Cardinals.
St. Louis plans to have Miles Mikolas take the mound, but he has struggled recently, allowing 23 hits and 15 earned runs in his last 16 1/3 innings. Abrams is ready to capitalize on Mikolas’ struggles. The Cardinals’ pitcher relies heavily on his four-seamer and sinker, throwing them more than 24% of the time, but Abrams has been hitting both pitches well.
According to Baseball Savant, he has a .307 batting average and .648 slugging percentage against four-seamers, while hitting .500 with a .708 slugging against sinkers. A successful $10 bet on this proposition would result in a $9.01 profit.
Top odds: -111 at BetMGM, with an implied probability of 52.61%
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Steven Kwan Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs ⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 2.5 (+125) | OFF | Over 2.5 (+130) | OFF | Over 2.5 (+135) |
Information about the game: Guardians facing off against Tigers. The moneyline is in favor of Guardians at -140 according to bet365. The total score is set at Over 8.5 (-110) or Under 8.5 (-110) also via bet365. The game is scheduled to start at 6:40 p.m. ET.
Kwan of the Guardians would likely be the recipient of a most improved award if MLB were to hand one out. The outfielder has transformed from a Gold Glove defender to a full-fledged All-Star and is now considered the best contact hitter in baseball this season. Kwan currently leads the league in batting average at .364 and has been on a tear since coming back from an injury on May 31.
After finishing May with a three-hit game, he carried that success into June with a .374/.436/.582 slash line. Since returning to Cleveland’s lineup, he has been averaging 2.8 hits, runs, and RBIs per game, surpassing the 2.5 mark in 15 games. He is likely to exceed 2.5 once more against Tigers’ starter Keider Montero.
Montero is making only his fourth start of the season, but he has already given up 16 hits, 11 runs, and four home runs in just 15 innings. He heavily relies on his four-seam fastball (43.7%), a pitch that Kwan has been hitting .395 with a .640 slugging percentage against. Placing a $10 bet on Kwan hitting the Over will result in a $13.50 profit if he succeeds.
Top odds: +135 at bet365 | Probability of winning: 42.55%
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Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 steal ⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 0.5 (+145) | Over 0.5 (+152) | Over 0.5 (+140) | OFF | Over 0.5 (+155) |
Information for the Rockies vs. Reds game: Moneyline odds favor the Reds at -180 according to bet365. The over/under total is set at 9, with the over at -120 and the under at +100. The game is scheduled to start at 7:10 p.m. ET.
De La Cruz has transformed into the Reds’ version of a power-hitting Billy Hamilton. He keeps pitchers on edge with his speed on the base paths, but also poses a major threat with his hitting abilities. De La Cruz is undoubtedly one of the most exciting players in baseball at the moment.
De La Cruz has taken base stealing to a whole new level, following in the footsteps of the legendary Rickey Henderson. Leading the league in stolen bases by 14, De La Cruz has already swiped three bags in just six games this July. Colorado’s starting pitcher, Ryan Feltner, will have his work cut out for him on Monday.
Feltner has given up 18 stolen bases in 17 starts, and Colorado is ranked below average in the league for stolen bases allowed per game (0.78). De La Cruz has stolen 43 bases in 90 games (47.7%), making the odds offered by bet365 very attractive. A $10 bet could yield a $15.50 profit.
Top odds: +155 at bet365 | Probability: 39.22%
Byron Buxton Over 0.5 home run ⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 0.5 (+225) | Over 0.5 (+280) | Over 0.5 (+250) | Over 0.5 (+225) | Over 0.5 (+225) |
Information about the game between the Twins and White Sox: Twins are favored to win with a moneyline of -185 according to bet365. The total score is set at over 9 (-125) or under 9 (+105) also via bet365. The game will start at 8:10 p.m. ET.
Finishing up my top MLB player props for Monday, I have my eye on a home run prop for a promising slugger. Given the unpredictable nature of the home run market each night, I suggest only placing a half unit on this bet. Still, there is solid evidence to suggest that Byron Buxton will hit one out of the park.
The Twins’ outfielder has been plagued by injuries, but he has been hitting home runs consistently when he’s able to play. Buxton has hit five home runs in his last 11 games and has been hitting the ball hard in July. He has a batting line of .444/.524/.778 in five games and looks to continue his success against Chicago’s Chris Flexen.
The White Sox starting pitcher is currently ranked 12th in the league for most home runs allowed this season, with a total of 15. In his last five starts, he has given up seven home runs. Buxton, who is a former All-Star, has a strong track record against the pitcher, slugging .620 or higher against his top pitches. A $5 bet on this proposition has the potential to yield a $14 profit.
FanDuel offers the best odds at +280, which implies a 26.32% probability of winning.
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MLB player props were established on Monday at 8:45 a.m. ET.
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