Tuesday’s MLB Player Props & Expert Picks Today: Judge to Bounce Back Against Rays
What happened to the Aaron Judge we saw in June? Despite a rough start to July, we believe the New York Yankees star is ready to make a comeback against the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday at 6:50 p.m. ET. Check out today’s MLB player props to see why we think Judge is poised for a strong performance.
Prior to the AL MVP odds favorite stepping onto the field, the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers, two top contenders for the World Series, will face off at 6:40 p.m. ET. Allen Byron provides a detailed analysis of the player props for the Dodgers vs. Phillies game.
I am also keeping an eye on the games between the Miami Marlins and Houston Astros at 8:10 p.m. ET, as well as the Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants at 9:45 p.m. ET.
After you finish browsing the sluggers listed below, make sure to visit Kelly Irvin’s top home run props for Tuesday, where he analyzes three players he believes will hit home runs.
Tuesday’s MLB expert picks
Our MLB picks are determined by odds from top MLB betting sites, with confidence levels rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.
- Alec Bohm Over 1.5 total bases (-109 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Aaron Judge Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Jose Altuve Over 0.5 runs (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
MLB player props
Alec Bohm Over 1.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 1.5 (-115) | Over 1.5 (-110) | Over 1.5 (-111) | Over 1.5 (-109) | Over 1.5 (-115) |
Information on the game between the Dodgers and Phillies: The Phillies are favored to win with a moneyline of -140 according to bet365. The total points expected is set at Over 9 (-105) or Under 9 (-115) also via bet365. The game is scheduled to start at 6:40 p.m. Eastern Time.
Bryce Harper’s return is on the horizon, but in his absence, Alec Bohm has been a standout player for the Phillies. As one of the breakout stars of the season, Bohm is set to make his first All-Star game appearance and is expected to have a solid performance against the Dodgers.
The Dodgers will have Bobby Miller on the mound, but he hasn’t been as impressive as he was in his rookie season. Miller has been struggling with a shoulder injury and has only pitched 13 1/3 innings over three starts since his return, allowing 10 earned runs.
He relies heavily on his four-seamer (44.4%), a pitch that Bohm has a .356 batting average and a .574 slugging percentage against. Bohm averages 1.9 total bases per game this season, making the odds from Caesars appealing against a struggling Miller. A $10 bet could yield a $9.17 profit.
Caesars offers the best odds at -109, indicating an implied probability of 52.15%.
Terms and conditions apply.
Aaron Judge Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs ⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 2.5 (+105) | OFF | Over 2.5 (+105) | OFF | Over 2.5 (+105) |
Information for the Yankees vs. Rays game: Moneyline odds favor the Yankees (-125) according to bet365. The total points line is set at Over 8 (-120) or Under 8 (+100) as per bet365. The game is scheduled to start at 6:50 p.m. Eastern Time.
Honestly, it’s surprising to see Judge having a tough time. He had an impressive performance in June with a .409/.514/.864 slash line and seemed like a lock for AL MVP. Although he hasn’t started July strong, neither have the Yankees. However, he has a chance to bounce back against the Rays.
Tampa Bay is giving the starting nod to Ryan Pepiot, who heavily relies on his four-seamer (51.9%). While it may not be the best pitch to use against Judge, when it’s being thrown more than half the time, there aren’t many other options. Judge has been handling four-seamers with authority, reminiscent of Will Smith’s slap on Chris Rock.
He has a batting average of .323 with a .770 expected slugging percentage and a 65.7% hard-hit rate against them this season. Judge has the potential to hit a home run and win this bet in just one at-bat. If he is successful, a $10 wager would result in a $10.50 profit.
The best odds are +105 on DraftKings, with an implied probability of 48.78%.
Terms and conditions apply.
Jose Altuve Over 0.5 runs ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 0.5 (-135) | OFF | OFF | OFF | Over 0.5 run (-125) |
Information about the game between the Marlins and Astros: Moneyline odds favor the Astros (-230 on bet365), with the total set at Over 8.5 (+105) or Under 8.5 (-125) on bet365. The game is scheduled to start at 8:10 p.m. ET.
The Astros have gone 13-4 since June 19. Speculation about cheating remains, but I’m unconcerned as long as Altuve can score a run against Miami. The Marlins’ performance is so poor that even I could probably score a run against them. Thankfully, bet365 has a fair price on this prop bet.
With Altuve’s dominant performance in June carrying over into July with a .391 batting average, one would expect the odds to be in his favor. In his last 29 games, he has scored 19 runs and is showing no signs of slowing down, especially against Miami. Facing Trevor Rogers, Altuve has a solid track record, hitting .301 or better against three of his four pitches.
Yordan Alvarez is batting behind the All-Star player in order to bring him home, boasting a .505 or higher slugging percentage against three of Rogers’ pitches. Placing a $10 bet on this scenario would result in an $8 profit.
Top odds: -125 on bet365 | Probability of winning: 55.56%
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 1.5 (+130) | Over 1.5 (+110) | OFF | Over 1.5 (+126) | Over 1.5 (+140) |
Information for the game between the Blue Jays and Giants includes the Giants as favorites with a moneyline of -130 from bet365. The total is set at 7.5 runs, with the over at -115 and the under at -105 from bet365. The game is scheduled to start at 9:45 p.m. Eastern Time.
With the home run derby approaching, it’s the perfect time to support a former champion like Guerrero Jr. He struggled in the beginning of the season but turned things around in June, hitting .318/.354/.608 and becoming a threat to pitchers.
Vladdy has maintained an average of 2.2 total bases per game since June and is expected to continue this trend against the Giants. San Francisco will have Blake Snell on the mound, who has struggled with a 9.51 ERA this season due to injuries.
He has given up 32 hits, 25 earned runs, and four home runs in 23 2/3 innings of play, with his four-seam fastball being used 47.2% of the time. Guerrero has a .333 batting average against the fastball and a .389 batting average against his curveball. Placing a $10 bet on this proposition would yield a $14 profit.
Top chances: +140 from bet365 | Likelihood: 41.67%
MLB player props were created on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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- Best Live Betting Sites | Best Underscoreg Promos (U.S. only)
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