Wednesday’s MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Can Dodgers Get to Skenes?
On Wednesday, we’re breaking down the matchup between up-and-coming Pittsburgh Pirates star Paul Skenes and the formidable Los Angeles Dodgers, along with other top MLB player props and expert picks, all based on the most favorable MLB odds available.
Wednesday’s MLB schedule is packed with games, but the main event is the matchup between MLB Rookie of the Year hopeful Paul Skenes and the favored Los Angeles Dodgers. The game is set to start at 6:40 p.m. ET, but there are other exciting matchups throughout the day as well.
The Atlanta Braves will visit Fenway Park to play against the Boston Red Sox at 1:35 p.m. ET, followed by the Houston Astros hosting the St. Louis Cardinals at 2:10 p.m. ET. Our first MLB player prop on Wednesday will be determined during the Astros vs. Cardinals game.
The day ends with a game in the NL West division between the Seattle Mariners and the Oakland Athletics, where Logan Gilbert, a top contender for the MLB Cy Young award, will be starting for the Mariners.
Check out our MLB player props and expert selections for Wednesday’s games. Our MLB picks are determined by odds from our top MLB betting sites, with confidence levels rated on a 1-5 star scale.
Wednesday’s MLB expert picks
- Ronel Blanco Under 5.5 strikeouts (+120 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Dakota Hudson Under 3.5 strikeouts (-130 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Paul Skenes Under 6.5 strikeouts (+110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
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MLB player props
Ronel Blanco Under 5.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 5.5 (+100) | Under 5.5 (+108) | Under 5.5 (+105) | Under 5.5 (-101) | Under 5.5 (+105) |
Information for the game between the Cardinals and Astros: Astros are favored with a moneyline of -175 according to Betway. The total score is set at Over 8.5 (-115) or Under 8.5 (-105) also through Betway. The game starts at 2:10 p.m. ET.
After 10 starts this season, Houston Astros right-hander Ronel Blanco remains somewhat enigmatic. He began the campaign by no-hitting the Toronto Blue Jays, but was later involved in a cheating scandal in May. Despite his impressive 2.44 ERA, Blanco’s underlying statistics are concerning. One clear weakness in his game is his lack of strikeouts.
It will be challenging to do so on Wednesday against the St. Louis Cardinals, who have a strikeout rate that is average compared to other teams. The Cardinals have improved at the plate recently, with players like Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn, Paul Goldschmidt, and Alec Burleson performing much better over the past month.
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Blanco is expected to have 5.4 strikeouts against the Cardinals on Wednesday, just slightly below the needed total. However, we still have a positive expected value of 20% due to the favorable +120 odds.
In comparison to other top sports betting sites with odds around even money, Pinnacle stands out with their Under option at -125, thanks to their highly respected trading team in the industry.
Top odds: +120 on BetRivers
Dakota Hudson Under 3.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 3.5 (-145) | Under 3.5 (-138) | Under 3.5 (-130) | Under 3.5 (-147) | Under 3.5 (-150) |
Information about the Reds vs. Rockies game: Moneyline odds are Reds (-130) according to Betway, with the total set at Over 11.5 (-110) or Under 11.5 (-110) also via Betway. The game is scheduled to start at 3:10 p.m. Eastern Time.
The key point to remember about Dakota Hudson this season is that he is walking almost as many batters as he is striking out. In 11 starts, he has only surpassed his strikeout total three times, with his most recent occurrence being on April 25 when the San Diego Padres scored six runs off him in just 3 1/3 innings.
Hudson is facing a Cincinnati Reds team that ranks sixth in the league in strikeouts and seventh in walks. This may not be an ideal matchup for the right-hander. Furthermore, the game is at Coors Field with a total of 11.5 runs, suggesting that Hudson’s outing could be cut short.
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According to our reliable projection models, Hudson is predicted to only record 2.87 strikeouts on Wednesday. With this projection, we are estimating a slightly higher than 19% positive expected value on this bet.
Many of our top sports betting apps have odds around -145 or -150, but the -130 odds at BetMGM are particularly appealing. Pinnacle also offers the Under at -187.
Top odds: -130 at BetMGM
Paul Skenes Under 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 6.5 (+105) | Under 7.5 (-160) | Under 6.5 (+110) | Under 6.5 (-119) | Under 7.5 (-170) |
Information for the game between the Dodgers and Pirates includes the Pirates being favored with a moneyline of -120 from Betway. The total is set at Over 8.5 (-105) or Under 8.5 (-115) from Betway. The game is scheduled to start at 6:40 p.m. ET.
I understand that rooting for Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes, who is struggling, may seem odd, especially when he faces the Los Angeles Dodgers and their two top candidates for the MLB MVP award. However, Skenes has been performing well, with an average of 12.27 strikeouts per nine innings in his first four starts. In his last game against the Detroit Tigers, he had nine strikeouts.
Nonetheless, the Dodgers are consistently dominant, boasting the 13th-best strikeout rate, the second-best walk rate, and wRC+ in the league. In short, no National League team is more intimidating than the Dodgers.
According to Skenes’ analysis, we have a potential edge of about 28% on this wager. However, this is considered only a three-star pick for several reasons. Firstly, his projections do not align perfectly with our four reliable models. Secondly, I am hesitant to bet on rookie pitchers who may not be properly accounted for in the projection models.
This remains a reliable option, as well as FanDuel’s Under 7.5 at -160. The latter is the more advantageous choice in terms of expected value, but the former is a safer option for those who are hesitant to wager on the Pirates’ rising star like I am.
Top odds: +110 offered by BetMGM
MLB player props were set on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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Related pages
- Best Live Betting Sites | Best Underscoreg Promos (U.S. only)
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