Home Run Props & Odds for Friday: Alvarez, Ohtani Among All-Stars Poised to Go Yard
If you’re still craving fireworks after the Fourth of July, check out Friday’s lineup of MLB games.
Many MLB MVP candidates are poised to play, with advantageous matchups that increase their chances of hitting home runs and winning our prop bets.
Marcell Ozuna and the Atlanta Braves will face the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL at 7:20 p.m. ET, followed by Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Dodgers, the World Series favorites, taking on the Milwaukee Brewers at 10:10 p.m. ET.
In the midst of those games are two AL matchups showcasing All-Star starters. The Houston Astros will face the Minnesota Twins at 8:10 p.m. ET, followed by the Baltimore Orioles taking on the Oakland Athletics at 9:40 p.m. ET.
Home run props for Friday
Check out the home run probabilities on our top sports betting websites and choose your confidence level using a rating scale of 1 to 5 stars.
- Marcell Ozuna (+340 via FanDuel) vs. Phillies (Aaron Nola), at Truist Park ⭐⭐⭐
- Yordan Alvarez (+375 via bet365) vs. Twins (Pablo Lopez), at Target Field ⭐⭐⭐
- Adley Rutschman (+675 via Caesars) vs. Athletics (Hogan Harris), at Oakland Coliseum ⭐⭐
- Shohei Ohtani (+250 via FanDuel) vs. Brewers (Aaron Civale), at Dodger Stadium ⭐⭐⭐⭐
It is important to be aware that home run props are a highly unpredictable betting market. We recommend placing smaller bets on these compared to our other MLB picks.
Marcell Ozuna (RHH) vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), Truist Park
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 21 | HR/9: 1.2 |
| SLG%: .554 | HR/FB%: 14 |
| FB%: 32.5 | FB%: 33.2 |
| Hard hit %: 54.5 | Hard hit %: 35.4 |
Despite a season filled with injuries for the Braves, Ozuna has been consistently hitting well. The two-time All-Star ranks third in the NL for home runs (21) and SLG (.554), with 18 of his dingers coming off right-handed pitchers such as Aaron Nola.
Nola has struggled against power hitters, allowing the 16th-most home runs in the MLB with 14, including seven in his last eight starts. Truist Park, where he will be pitching, has seen the eighth-most home runs hit since 2022 with 108 according to Baseball Savant, so it may not be an easy outing for him.
Ozuna is dominating three of Nola’s top four pitches with a .576 SLG or better against his four-seamer (25.3%), sinker (20.9%), and cutter (10.8%). Placing a $10 bet on this prop would result in a $34 profit.
Top odds: +340 on FanDuel | Probability: 22.73%
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Yordan Alvarez (LHH) vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), Target Field
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 19 | HR/9: 1.6 |
| SLG%: .553 | HR/FB%: 16.2 |
| FB%: 36.2 | FB%: 41.3 |
| Hard hit %: 47 | Hard hit %: 38.3 |
This home run prop showcases the impressive performances of both Yordan Alvarez and Pablo Lopez. Alvarez has hit three home runs in his last four games and has been on a hot streak since the start of June. In June, he had a .349/.430/.709 slash line with seven home runs in 23 games. In July, he has a remarkable 1.417 SLG.
This is unfortunate for Lopez, who ranks fifth in the MLB for most home runs allowed this season with 17. Out of his 17 starts, he has only avoided giving up a home run in four of them. In his last nine games, Lopez has allowed 11 home runs.
Lopez relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, throwing it 39.2% of the time. Alvarez has a .520 slugging percentage against this pitch this season, hitting 11 of his 19 home runs off fastballs. Placing a $10 bet on this proposition would result in a $37.50 profit.
Top chances: +375 on bet365 | Probability: 21.05%
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Adley Rutschman (SHH) vs. Hogan Harris (LHP), Oakland Coliseum
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 15 | HR/9: 1.4 |
| SLG%: .461 | HR/FB%: 11.5 |
| FB%: 32.3 | FB%: 42.6 |
| Hard hit %: 42 | Hard hit %: 36.1 |
Due to Adley Rutschman’s recent performance decline, the top sports betting apps are uncertain about how to accurately price the All-Star player. While other sportsbooks have odds for the same home run prop at around +520, the price offered by Caesars is too tempting to ignore.
Although Rutschman has struggled recently, this game presents the ideal opportunity for the Orioles slugger to regain his form. Throughout the season, he has excelled against left-handed pitchers like Hogan Harris, boasting a .400/.434/.629 slash line with six home runs in 105 at-bats.
Harris relies heavily on his four-seamer, throwing it 59.3% of the time. This has been the pitch that Rutschman has had the most success against, hitting .365 with a .615 SLG. Rutschman has also performed well against Harris’ second-most used pitch, the curveball (16.3%), with a .538 SLG. Placing a $10 bet on this prop could result in a $67.50 profit.
The odds of +675 offered by Caesars suggest an implied probability of 12.9%.
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Shohei Ohtani (LHH) vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), Dodger Stadium
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 27 | HR/9: 1.7 |
| SLG%: .636 | HR/FB%: 14.8 |
| FB%: 28.9 | FB%: 41.2 |
| Hard hit %: 60.5 | Hard hit %: 30.8 |
Some sluggers, like Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, are so impressive that they don’t require any explanation for why they’re worth supporting. While it may be obvious why I’m backing Ohtani, I feel compelled to explain why it’s an especially strong choice this time.
Aaron Civale has given up the sixth-most home runs in the MLB this season with 16. He has allowed at least one home run in 14 out of 17 starts, including five in his last five games. On the other hand, Ohtani has a .712 SLG against right-handed pitchers and has hit 21 out of his 27 home runs off of them.
He just hit a career-high 12 home runs in June, and even though all signs point to him hitting one on his birthday, a $10 bet would still yield a $25 profit on this wager.
Top odds: +250 on FanDuel | Probability: 28.57%
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