Tuesday’s Best Home Run Props & Odds: Robert, Perez Primed to Tee Off
On Tuesday, we focused our search on an AL Central slugger known for hitting baseballs deep into the great beyond.
Luis Robert of the Chicago White Sox has been consistently hitting home runs since returning from injury in 2024, and he is on track to boost his already impressive power statistics. Matt Chapman of the San Francisco Giants is also excelling in this area.
They are a key part of our home run predictions for Tuesday. FanDuel consistently provides competitive odds in this market, especially during their Dinger Tuesday promotion.
After you finish admiring my home runs, be sure to read our forecast for the Dodgers vs. Phillies game and our expert picks for Tuesday’s MLB player props.
Home run props for Tuesday
Find the probability of a home run on our top sports betting platforms; rate your confidence level using a scale of 1 to 5 stars.
- Luis Robert (+325 via Caesars) vs. Twins (Bailey Ober), at Guaranteed Rate Field ⭐⭐⭐
- Matt Chapman (+440 via FanDuel) vs. Blue Jays (Yusei Kikuchi), at Oracle Park ⭐⭐⭐
- Salvador Perez (+480 via FanDuel) vs. Cardinals (Andre Pallante), at Busch Stadium ⭐⭐⭐
Please be aware that home run props are a highly unpredictable betting market. We advise making wagers with a smaller investment compared to our other MLB picks.
Luis Robert (RHH) vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), Guaranteed Rate Field
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 10 | HR/9: 1.4 |
| SLG%: .490 | HR/FB%: 10.8 |
| FB%: 27.8 | FB%: 31.7 |
| Hard hit %: 44.4 | Hard hit %: 36.5 |
Despite missing a significant portion of playing time in 2024 because of a hip injury sustained in early April, Robert has managed to hit 10 home runs in just 38 games.
Robert thrives on high temperatures, giving him a significant advantage over Bailey Ober from the Minnesota Twins. In 2024, Robert has a slugging percentage of .656 against four-seamers, an improvement from his .714 slugging percentage in 2023. Although Ober utilizes a variety of pitches, his most frequently used pitch is the four-seamer, thrown 38.6% of the time.
All of our top sports betting sites have similar odds for backing Robert to tee off again, but Caesars has a slight advantage with a price that would result in a $42.50 payout on a $10 bet.
Caesars offers the best odds at +325, implying a probability of 23.43%.
Terms and conditions apply.
Matt Chapman (RHH) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), Oracle Park
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 12 | HR/9: 1.2 |
| SLG%: .423 | HR/FB%: 9.0 |
| FB%: 25.3 | FB%: 28.4 |
| Hard hit %: 46.8 | Hard hit %: 45.3 |
Matt Chapman is not known for his ability to make contact with the ball. Despite one standout season, his batting average currently stands at a standard .244.
However, quality is always prioritized over quantity when it comes to contact in this area. Chapman consistently crushes baseballs with an average exit velocity of 92.3, ranking in the top 9% leaguewide according to Baseball Savant.
This positions him favorably against Yusei Kikuchi from the Toronto Blue Jays, who has struggled recently by giving up eight home runs since the start of June, with four of them coming in a single game. Kikuchi has also allowed four or more earned runs in four games during this period, while Chapman has an impressive .986 OPS against left-handed pitchers.
Don’t bet on DraftKings at +330 odds, instead consider FanDuel which offers better odds of $54 on a $10 bet.
Top odds: +440 on FanDuel, which implies a probability of 18.52%.
This offer is only available to new customers. To qualify, deposit a minimum of $5 and place your first bet of $5 or more. If your bet wins within 72 hours, you will receive $200 in Bonus Bets.
Salvador Perez (RHH) vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), Busch Stadium
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 14 | HR/9: 0.8 |
| SLG%: .454 | HR/FB%: 8.7 |
| FB%: 33.3 | FB%: 16.9 |
| Hard hit %: 47.5 | Hard hit %: 41.9 |
Editor’s Note: The game between the Royals and Cardinals has been postponed.
Salvador Perez pays no mind to the approaching shadow of Father Time or your worries about getting older. Despite being 34 years old, he continues to excel as a catcher, a physically challenging position, maintaining an OPS just shy of .800.
His bat holds considerable power, evident in his slugging percentage increase from .422 in 2023 to .454 now. The potential for further positive regression is promising, especially as we rely on his home run potential on Tuesday night, or any night.
Perez has been experiencing a string of bad luck, as his expected slugging percentage of .537 places him in the top 5% of MLB players, significantly higher than his current slugging percentage.
Now the experienced player has a strong advantage over Andre Pallante of the St. Louis Cardinals, who is only in his 18th career start. Pallante relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, throwing it 51.6% of the time, but Perez has a .479 slugging percentage against fastballs.
Many of our top sportsbooks have odds around +425, making this price from FanDuel of $58 on a $10 bet a great opportunity to take advantage of.
Top odds: +480 on FanDuel | Implied probability: 17.24%
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
*Bonuses are not valid in Ontario. If you have a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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- Best Live Betting Sites | Best Underscoreg Promos (U.S. only)
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