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Mets vs. Nationals Player Prop Predictions, Odds: Expert Picks for Thursday

Morgan Xaviero

Updated as of July 4, 2024 at 5:33 AM EDT. Read time: 2 minutes and 62 seconds. Find more information on Twitter and Google News.

New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) celebrates as we offer our best Mets vs. Nationals player props for the Fourth of July matchup at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C.
New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) celebrates after hitting a two-run home run against the Washington Nationals during the fifth inning at Nationals Park. Photo by Rafael Suanes / USA TODAY Sports via Imagn.

Fireworks may light up the sky early on the Fourth of July as the New York Mets (42-42) finish their four-game series against the Washington Nationals (40-46) with a first pitch scheduled for 11:05 a.m. ET on MLB Network.

The Mets are favored at -115 according to the top MLB odds on our preferred sports betting sites, anticipating a high-scoring game at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. Our focus is on a consistent MLB MVP candidate in our player props for the Mets vs. Nationals game on July 4th.

Mets vs. Nationals player props

We rate our confidence in MLB picks on a scale of one to five stars, with odds provided by our top MLB betting sites.

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Mets vs. Nationals expert picks

Jose Quintana Over 3.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Quintana, at age 35, may not be considered a strikeout artist with only around four strikeouts per start and a 7.1 K/9. However, in his recent performances, he has shown improvement by striking out 21 batters in his last three starts.

This is no coincidence. The experienced left-handed pitcher recently made some changes to focus on strikeouts, relying more on his off-speed pitches and pitching inside. The outcome has been evident: he has struck out six or more batters in his past three starts, recording seven strikeouts in four innings on Friday against a strong Houston Astros lineup.

This bet is being offered at -115 at all of our top sportsbooks, indicating a 53.49% probability of winning according to our odds converter. With odds of -110, a successful $10 bet would result in a payout of $9.09, making it a great bonus.

Top odds at -110 available on DraftKings.

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Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 bases ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is the more cautious approach to betting on Lindor hitting a home run, especially since he has achieved this feat in two consecutive games leading up to this one. For those feeling bold, there is a +250 odds for him to make it three in a row.

The sudden power surge appeared unexpectedly, but Lindor has been on a hot streak at the plate for weeks. He has recorded a hit in eight of his last nine games, including five doubles and three home runs. In seven of those nine games, he has surpassed this total (77.8%).

He has had success against Jake Irvin in the past, getting a single and a double in three previous at-bats. With -120 odds, there is a 54.55% chance that he will get two hits or an extra-base hit for the eighth time in 10 games. I believe he will continue his success in this matchup.

The most favorable odds are -120 at BetMGM.

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Jake Irvin Over 2.5 earned runs allowed ⭐⭐⭐

I would be shocked if Irvin manages to get through the Mets lineup, whether it’s Lindor or another player, without giving up a couple of home runs in the early innings.

Irvin’s recent performance appears strong on the surface, as he has pitched six or more innings in seven of his last eight starts with a 2.09 ERA. However, he has given up six home runs in those eight starts, including one in each of his last four outings. Additionally, his FIP stands at 3.73 over that span, indicating some underlying issues in his pitching performance.

In the meantime, the Mets have been hitting the ball hard with a 9.6% barrel rate and .334 xwOBA, both of which rank fourth in the majors. They have scored 21 runs in the first three games of this series, and I anticipate they will continue their strong performance before Irvin’s time on the mound is up.

Top odds: -110 available on DraftKings

Mets vs. Nationals odds

Mets vs. Nationals game info

  • When: Thursday, July 4
  • First pitch: 11:05 a.m. ET
  • Where: Nationals Park (Washington, D.C.)
  • How to watch: MLB Network
  • Favorite: Mets (-115 via bet365)

Player props for the Mets-Nationals game were set on Thursday at 1:15 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Morgan Xaviero
Morgan Xaviero is a publishing editor and lead writer for Underscoreg Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, “C-Jax” has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Underscoreg Review team. He’s a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels’ championship run through the NCAA men’s basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he’s played a key role in Underscoreg Review’s coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he’s cashed some big bets over the years — including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) — he’s still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed “process over results” bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He’s written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn’t forgiven his “inside source” for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.