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Mets vs. Nationals Player Prop Predictions, Odds: Expert Picks for Thursday

Morgan Xaviero

Updated as of July 4, 2026 at 5:33 AM EDT. Read time: 2 minutes and 62 seconds. Find more on Twitter and Google News.

New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) celebrates as we offer our best Mets vs. Nationals player props for the Fourth of July matchup at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C.
New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) celebrates after hitting a two-run home run against the Washington Nationals during the fifth inning at Nationals Park. Photo by Rafael Suanes / USA TODAY Sports via Imagn.

There might not be a long wait to witness fireworks on the Fourth of July, as the New York Mets (42-42) will finish their four-game series against the Washington Nationals (40-46) with an 11:05 a.m. ET first pitch on MLB Network.

According to the top sports betting sites, the Mets are favored at -115 in what is expected to be a high-scoring game at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. As we look ahead to the Mets vs. Nationals player props for July 4, we are focusing on a consistent contender in MLB MVP odds.

Mets vs. Nationals player props

Our MLB picks are rated on a 1 to 5-star scale for confidence, with odds provided by our top MLB betting sites.

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Mets vs. Nationals expert picks

Jose Quintana Over 3.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

In his age-35 season, Quintana is not exactly a strikeout machine, averaging around four strikeouts per start with a 7.1 K/9. However, he has shown improvement in his recent outings, striking out 21 batters in his last three games.

This is no coincidence. The experienced left-handed pitcher recently made some changes to focus on getting more strikeouts, relying more on his secondary pitches and pitching inside. The outcome is evident: he has struck out six or more batters in his past three starts, with seven strikeouts in four innings on Friday against a strong Houston Astros team.

This bet is available at -115 on our top sportsbooks, indicating a 53.49% chance of winning according to our odds converter. With odds of -110, a winning $10 bet would earn $9.09, making it a valuable opportunity.

Top odds: -110 at DraftKings

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Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 bases ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is the more prudent approach to wagering on Lindor hitting a home run, as he has achieved this feat in two consecutive games leading up to this one. For those feeling adventurous, he is +250 to extend his streak to three games.

The sudden power surge appeared to be unexpected, but Lindor has been consistently hitting well for weeks. In his last nine games, he has recorded a hit in eight of them, including five doubles and three home runs. He has surpassed this total in seven of those games, achieving a success rate of 77.8%.

He has had success against Jake Irvin in the past, getting a single and a double in three previous at-bats against the Nationals right-handed pitcher. With odds of -120, there is a 54.55% chance that he will get two hits or an extra-base hit for the eighth time in 10 games. I am confident in our chances.

The most favorable odds are -120 with BetMGM.

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Jake Irvin Over 2.5 earned runs allowed ⭐⭐⭐

I would be shocked if Irvin, whether facing Lindor or another player, manages to get through the early innings without surrendering a couple of home runs to the powerful Mets lineup.

Irvin has put up impressive numbers on paper recently, lasting six or more innings in seven of his last eight starts with a 2.09 ERA. However, he has given up six home runs in those eight starts, with one in each of his last four outings. His FIP over that span is 3.73, indicating some underlying issues.

At the same time, the Mets have been hitting the ball hard with a 9.6% barrel rate and .334 xwOBA, both ranking fourth in the league. They have scored 21 runs in the first three games of this series, and I predict they will continue to score before Irvin’s outing is finished.

Top odds are -110 on DraftKings.

Mets vs. Nationals odds

Mets vs. Nationals game info

  • When: Thursday, July 4
  • First pitch: 11:05 a.m. ET
  • Where: Nationals Park (Washington, D.C.)
  • How to watch: MLB Network
  • Favorite: Mets (-115 via bet365)

Player props for the Mets-Nationals game were created on Thursday at 1:15 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Morgan Xaviero
Morgan Xaviero is a publishing editor and lead writer for Underscoreg Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, “C-Jax” has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Underscoreg Review team. He’s a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels’ championship run through the NCAA men’s basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2026, he’s played a key role in Underscoreg Review’s coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he’s cashed some big bets over the years — including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) — he’s still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed “process over results” bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He’s written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn’t forgiven his “inside source” for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.