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Phillies vs. Braves Player Prop Predictions, Odds: Expert Picks for Saturday

Kelly Irvin

Updated as of July 6, 2024 at 12:49 PM EDT. Read time: 3 minutes and 11 seconds. Links to Twitter and Google News provided.

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suarez reacts after leaving the game against the Boston Red Sox in the fourth inning at BayCare Ballpark as we look at our Phillies vs. Braves predictions.
Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suarez reacts after leaving the game against the Boston Red Sox in the fourth inning at BayCare Ballpark. Photo by Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports.

When considering our top player props for the Phillies vs. Braves game airing on Fox in prime time on Saturday, it’s clear that the two teams are evenly matched in many aspects.

Both teams are prominently positioned in our World Series odds, both sitting in the top five. Each team boasts a formidable pitching staff, with the Phillies leading the league in ERA and the Braves close behind in third. Both teams are currently in a playoff position as of Saturday. However, both teams are also facing key injuries, with the Braves’ loss of Ronald Acuna for the season being a significant blow.

The Phillies stand out from nearly every other team in a comical way. The Braves have a strong offense even without Acuna, but their plus-49 run differential pales in comparison to the Phillies’ MLB-leading plus-119.

However, both NL East rivals are still evenly matched with -110 moneyline odds suggesting a close game ahead.

Phillies vs. Braves player props

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Phillies vs. Braves expert picks

Ranger Suarez Over 4.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Ranger Suarez is a key member of a dominant pitching staff that consistently challenges opposing batters, making it seem almost unfair. The team leads MLB with a 3.20 ERA, with Zack Wheeler and Suarez playing major roles in this success. Wheeler and Suarez are currently leading the NL in Cy Young odds, with Wheeler in first place and Suarez in fourth.

Suarez relies heavily on his deadly sinker to generate weak contact, leading to his success. Despite not always racking up high strikeout numbers, he maintains a solid 8.7 K/9 in 2024, slightly surpassing the league average.

Although his strikeouts decreased in June, with a K/9 of 6.4, he had a more impressive 10.7 K/9 in May. The 4.5 strikeout line from bet365 on Saturday seems easily attainable, especially against the Braves who have the 12th most strikeouts in MLB. Suarez previously struck out seven Braves players in April during his last game against Atlanta in 2024.

This line holds considerable value, with one projection model predicting Suarez will achieve 5.26 strikeouts. What’s more promising is that the reputable trading team at Pinnacle is offering -162 odds for the Over on 4.5 strikeouts, significantly better than the -130 odds at bet365.

If the Over hits, a $10 bet at these odds would result in a $17.69 payout.

Greatest chance of winning: -130 odds on bet365 | Probability of winning: 57.08%

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Bryson Stott Over 1.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Bryson Stott’s performance at the plate has been disappointing this season, as his batting average has dropped from .280 to .243.

Nonetheless, there is potential for some improvement in his performance, as his projected batting average is .266. Similarly, there is a discrepancy between his current slugging percentage of .355 and his anticipated mark of .382.

However, Stott, a left-handed hitter, is the focus of this play, highlighting Atlanta Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach’s struggles against left-handed batters. The disparity in performance is significant, as Schwellenbach has allowed an .881 OPS to lefties compared to a .661 OPS to righties.

Schwellenbach has been struggling recently, allowing four or more earned runs in three out of his last five starts. This can be attributed to his mediocre hard-hit percentage of 39.8, which ranks in the 41st percentile according to Baseball Savant. Additionally, he has been getting napalmed during these outings.

Avoid FanDuel, where the odds of -115 for this prop bet are much worse than the +110 offered by our other top sportsbooks. You could potentially win $21 from a $10 bet at these better odds.

DraftKings offers the best odds at +110, indicating an implied probability of 47.62%.

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Phillies vs. Braves odds & game info

  • When: Saturday, July 6
  • First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: Truist Park, Atlanta
  • How to watch: FOX
  • Favorite: Even (-110 via bet365)

Player props for the Phillies vs. Braves were made on Saturday at 10:42 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Kelly Irvin
Kelly Irvin has been in the sports media wilderness since 2009, and he joined Underscoreg Review in 2021. His work has been referenced in The New York Times and Forbes. He’s also made appearances on The Fan 590 and TSN 1050. Sean is a regular bettor who places bets daily while using a handful of books. Most frequently, he uses FanDuel and bet365 due to the quality experience on those apps. While he’ll often take an analytical approach, Sean enjoys the fun, recreational side of betting too, and embraces alternative markets on events like the Westminster Dog Show or Eurovision, or the many novelty props tied annually to the Super Bowl, for example. Beyond sports, Sean is also interested in the betting markets tied to politics, and especially those connected to American elections. He sees betting as a way to explore and engage in a deeper way, and takes that same view to his work. He plays poker periodically too, and is an avid fantasy sports player. Sean also previously spent time with Bleacher Report and theScore, all after earning his media studies degree from the University of Guelph-Humber.