Shohei Ohtani Odds & Bets for 2024: Best MLB Futures Props With Summer Approaching

As the 2024 MLB season kicks off, Shohei Ohtani is dazzling fans with his hitting skills in his debut season with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Let’s take a look at the top futures bets to consider for the talented player.

There was speculation about the potential impact of Shohei Ohtani focusing solely on hitting for a full season instead of also pitching. Now, in his debut season with the World Series favorite Los Angeles Dodgers, we are witnessing the incredible skills of Ohtani as a full-time designated hitter.

This season, Ohtani has a wRC+ of 190, which is 10 points higher than his previous career high. His batting average is currently .336, an improvement of over 30 points from his .304 average last year.

Despite not playing any defense, he has already accumulated a remarkable 3.0 fWAR in just 53 games. To put it into perspective, he ranks 18th in defensive rating above average among all qualified hitters. However, this also means that his offensive rating is the best in baseball.

The slugger has reduced his strikeout rate and is running faster and harder compared to last season when he was named AL MVP. Ohtani is among the top performers in six major statistical categories, ranking in the highest percentiles for each.

Given all of that information, how do his futures markets currently compare to where they stood at the beginning of the season?

We carefully examined the odds on our top MLB betting sites to uncover the most promising bets for Shohei Ohtani in 2024, and there are still numerous thrilling possibilities available.

Shohei Ohtani props for 2024

NL MVP

As of June 3, here are the latest NL MVP odds. For a comprehensive look at MLB MVP odds, be sure to check out our full analysis.

Following the conclusion of the Seoul Series, which took place one week before MLB’s official Opening Day, fans had the opportunity to place a bet on Ohtani to win NL MVP at a price as high as +950 through FanDuel.

Even though his teammate, Mookie Betts, is having an outstanding season and is considered the favorite to win the NL MVP, Ohtani’s odds of winning are the longest at +550.

Ohtani is currently ranked second in the NL for fWAR, with Betts leading at 3.3. Additionally, his 180 wRC+ is the third highest in the league, and he also ranks in the top 10 for several other hitting statistics.

As stated before, Ohtani’s batted-ball statistics are exceptional. His expected batting average (xBA) of .338 exceeds his actual average by 16 points, and his expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) of .449 surpasses his fourth-best wOBA of .422. This suggests that the top hitter in baseball after approximately 50 games still has potential for improvement.

Ohtani’s MVP chances may be impacted by the fact that he only hits, while Betts plays a premium position as shortstop for the Dodgers. However, the difference in wins above replacement between the two players is only 0.4, suggesting that Ohtani has been just as valuable as Betts.

I placed a bet on Ohtani to win NL MVP at +350 a few weeks ago, so I suggest taking advantage of the +550 odds now.

Home run leader odds

As of June 3, the odds for the leader in MLB home runs are…

Ohtani is ranked as the fourth most favored in this market, frequently grouped with Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Tucker, and Marcell Ozuna. They are all priced much lower than the favorite, Aaron Judge.

Ohtani is among the top performers in several key hitting metrics, ranking fourth in average exit velocity, third in max exit velocity, second in balls hit at 95-plus mph, fourth in hard-hit percentage, and third in barrel rate. When combined with his 12.5-degree launch angle, this results in a high number of home runs being hit.

The hitting machine also benefits from playing his home games at Dodger Stadium, which is often considered a pitcher’s park but is consistently one of the most home-run-friendly ballparks in baseball. As June approaches, Dodger Stadium is currently ranked number one in home runs.

Do I suggest placing a bet against Aaron Judge to be the league leader in home runs? It’s a difficult decision because that is his specialty. However, if I were to bet on someone to achieve this, it would be Ohtani.

To join 30-30 club

This market is exclusive to bet365, one of our top sports betting sites, and fortunately it does provide both a Yes and No option.

Yes is listed at a price of +120, the second-shortest odds on that side after Elly De La Cruz’s +100. On the other hand, No is trading at -150, also considered a decent price.

We can analyze the projections to assess if this is a wise wager. The 30 home runs are not a concern, as he is expected to hit over 40 in total by most models. However, the stolen bases are slightly lower, with Steamer forecasting 29 and THE BAT X predicting exactly 30.

I placed a bet when it was at +155 and analyzed the data at that time.

Having two variables makes this bet more challenging, but the implied probability of 39% with +155 odds suggests that there is potential value. Assuming there is a high likelihood of the player hitting 30 or more home runs (assuming good health), along with a projection of 27-30 steals, these odds appear to offer good value.

Previously mentioned was De La Cruz’s +100 odds. With 30 steals already under his belt, it’s no surprise that his odds are short. However, his projected 23-25 home runs and batted-ball data, including a low launch angle of 8.0 and 76th percentile average exit velocity, indicate that hitting the top end of that range may be a stroke of luck.

When De La Cruz was trading at -110, I suggested that Ohtani should be around the same range. However, upon further analysis, it seems that both players should actually be hovering around the +125 range, and we are starting to see movement towards that point.

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