Federated Auto Parts 400 Odds and Picks: Backing a Desperate Truex Jr.

The NASCAR Cup Series is set to race at Richmond Raceway, a short track, for the second time this year. Keep reading for a preview of the Federated Auto Parts 400.

Denny Hamlin unexpectedly claimed victory at Richmond earlier this year, leading only five laps during the 400-lap event and earning just the seventh-best driver rating. This upset win could have significant implications for the playoff race, especially since top drivers Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr. are still seeking their first win of the season.

While technically classified as a short track, Richmond Raceway stands out in comparison to tracks like New Hampshire, Phoenix, and Gateway. Dover and Martinsville also provide useful points of comparison.

Below are my top selections for NASCAR’s Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway in Richmond, VA, with odds provided by DraftKings and FanDuel. Confidence levels are indicated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

Federated Auto Parts 400 Odds

Federated Auto Parts 400 Odds Analysis

The odds are leaning heavily towards Toyotas in the books, which is expected given their recent impressive performances. Some books have both Hamlin and Truex as favorites at +600, but Truex is listed at +550 in others. Kyle Busch and Christopher Bell, their teammates, typically have the next best odds.

The Federated Auto Parts 400 NASCAR betting odds at BetMGM show Martin Truex Jr. as the favorite at +600, followed by Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch at +700. The highest ticket percentage is for Truex Jr. at 11.0%, followed by Joey Logano at 8.1% and Hamlin at 7.7%. In terms of the highest handle percentage, Truex Jr. leads with 24.4%, followed by Logano at 12.5% and Alex Bowman at 6.9%.

— John Ewing (@johnewing) August 11, 2022

It is unexpected that the drivers who led the most laps in the spring Richmond race have solid odds. Ryan Blaney, who led 128 laps, is listed at +1200, while William Byron, who led 122 laps, has odds ranging from +1500 to +2000.

Federated Auto Parts 400 Picks

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Who Will Win the Federated Auto Parts 400?

Truex (+650)

This number started at a more favorable +700, but has since dropped to as low as +550. The best odds currently available are +650 at FanDuel, so those looking to bet on the expected favorite should consider placing their bets there.

Truex’s impressive showing at Richmond carried over to similar tracks. He placed sixth at Gateway, leading 42 laps, and fourth at New Hampshire, leading 172 laps, which accounted for over half of the race.

In the end, using game theory as a strategy, targeting Truex is the optimal choice. Following Kevin Harvick’s surprise victory at Michigan, Truex must secure a win in order to make it to the playoffs. Richmond Raceway presents the ideal opportunity for him and his team to be assertive and claim a coveted trophy.

Byron (+2000)

This number seems a little off. William Byron has not had a steady season so far, with only six top-10 finishes. However, the No. 24 car and his teammates at Hendrick Motorsports have shown speed throughout the year. This was evident in the spring race, where Byron led 30% of the race.

Byron’s performance in the comparator tracks has been inconsistent. He excelled at Martinsville by leading over half of the race but struggled to secure a top 10 finish or lead a lap at Gateway and New Hampshire. Despite leading 12 laps at Phoenix, he also fell short of a top 10 result. In contrast, Chase Elliott performed well in both events, leading double-digit laps and finishing a strong second in New Hampshire.

Several advanced metrics also indicate value in Byron. He currently holds the eighth-best average running position and has led the second-highest percentage of laps this year. While he will need to replicate his early April success to secure a victory on Sunday, the potential payoff justifies placing a bet on him.

Keselowski (+10000)

Although Brad Keselowski and RFK Racing have struggled this season, they have shown notable improvements. Chris Buescher, Keselowski’s teammate, has as many top 10 finishes as Denny Hamlin and one more than Byron. Despite Keselowski only having three top 10 finishes, he has the boldness and urgency to potentially cause an upset on Sunday.

Following a harsh early-season penalty, Keselowski currently has 364 driver points, trailing the lowest-ranked one-time winner, Kurt Busch, by more than 100 points. In order to secure a spot in the playoffs, Keselowski may have to earn not just one, but two wins. This is particularly crucial considering the upcoming races at Watkins Glen and Daytona, where potential new winners could emerge.

If Keselowski doesn’t have a strong finish to the season, he will miss out on racing for a championship for the first time since 2013. However, his strong performance at New Hampshire in July and success at Richmond since 2014 indicate that he could surprise with an upset. It may be wise to divide your bet between Keselowski’s outright win and top-10 finish, which are both available at +350.

Where to Bet Federated Auto Parts 400

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Picks for the Federated Auto Parts 400 were made on 8/9/2022 at 2:18 p.m. ET.