Olivia Chow the Runaway Betting Odds Leader in Toronto Mayoral Race
Davis Isabela analyzes the current frontrunners to replace John Tory as the next mayor of Toronto in the upcoming by-election, as reported by FanDuel Underscoreg.
With less than a month to go, the Toronto mayoral race has turned into a competition with only one candidate.
According to the latest odds from FanDuel Canada, Olivia Chow is the clear frontrunner with a -500 favorite status. This gives Chow an implied probability of 83.3% to become the first woman mayor of the City of Toronto since Barbara Hall’s tenure from 1994-97.
Since nominations closed in May, Chow’s odds of winning the City of Toronto mayoral position have been steadily increasing. The position became available in mid-February when John Tory resigned after news of his affair with a staffer.
The current odds for the mayoral race are as follows:
| Candidate | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Olivia Chow | -500 | 83.33% |
| Mark Saunders | +800 | 11.11% |
| Ana Bailao | +1400 | 6.67% |
| Mitzie Hunter | +1600 | 5.88% |
| Josh Matlow | +2000 | 4.76% |
| Brad Bradford | +2000 | 4.76% |
| Chloe Brown | +2300 | 4.17% |
| Giorgio Mammoliti | +2700 | 3.57% |
| Celina Caesar-Chavannes | +2700 | 3.57% |
| Anthony Furey | +3300 | 2.94% |
| Blake Acton | +4000 | 2.44% |
| Frank D’Angelo | +4000 | 2.44% |
| Mark LeLiever | +4000 | 2.44% |
The odds were last updated on Wednesday, May 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Let’s take a closer look at the most noteworthy candidates:
Olivia Chow (-500)
FanDuel adores Chow, and so do the bettors, who have elevated her from an initial odds of +175 to become the clear favorite to win the job.
At 66 years old, she is the most politically experienced candidate in the race, with almost 40 years of political involvement. She served as Member of Parliament for Trinity-Spadina for eight years before running for Toronto mayor unsuccessfully. She and her late husband, Jack Layton, played key roles in the NDP becoming the Official Opposition in 2011.
However, her recent decision to enter the Toronto mayoral race may bring back memories for those who backed her in the past. Chow was initially seen as a strong contender in the 2014 election, but ultimately trailed behind Tory and Ford. This was believed to be due to strategic voting that prioritized the rivalry between the Liberal and Conservative parties, leaving the NDP at a disadvantage.
Mark Saunders (+800)
Saunders’ position as the second favorite at FanDuel, one of the top sports betting sites, creates an interesting contrast at the top of the odds chart.
Chow may be the most seasoned politician on the list, but Saunders lacks a robust electoral record. In his first foray into municipal politics, he narrowly lost to Stephanie Bowman in 2022 in the race for the Member of Provincial Parliament seat in Don Valley West.
Saunders and Chow’s stark differences make him an interesting candidate. As a Progressive Conservative and former chief of police, he has nearly four decades of experience with the Toronto Police Service. His platform prioritizes community safety and crime prevention, issues that are important to Toronto residents.
Ana Bailao (+1400)
Is it possible for Bailao to cause an upset? FanDuel bettors are losing faith as her odds have dropped significantly, now at +1400 from a previous high of +550.
Bailao, who won the Ward 9 Davenport council seat in 2018 with an impressive 83.6% of the vote, is seen as a major contender in the Toronto mayoral race. In a recent debate with top candidates in Etobicoke, Bailao criticized her opponent Chow for prioritizing the NDP over the interests of the City of Toronto.
Bailao, a Portuguese immigrant who arrived in Canada at 15, is a strong advocate for increased affordable housing in the city. Her focus on improving Toronto’s public transit system is evident in most of her policies. Her campaign message, emphasizing affordability, community safety, and better transportation options, is clearly targeted towards the younger demographic. The question remains: will they rally behind her and support her bid for election?
Anticipate the odds changing more as we approach election day.
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