Presidential Odds for Each State: Best Bets Using Nate Silver’s Election Model Predictions

The outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election will be determined by key battleground states. Donald Trump is currently the top choice at reputable political betting sites (outside the U.S.) as we approach the Nov. 5 election. Let’s take a closer look at the odds in each U.S. state and district.

Most U.S. states have already chosen which presidential candidate they will support in the upcoming fall election, as indicated by the current U.S. presidential odds. However, the outcome of the 2024 election will ultimately be decided by a few key states where the result remains uncertain.

Can Donald Trump reclaim the states he lost to Joe Biden in 2020 and become the favorite in betting? Will the Democrats maintain their power by holding onto their gains from four years ago? Will there be surprising changes in long-standing trends in the more established states?

2024 electoral college map

As we anticipate the unfolding drama, let’s take a close look at the presidential odds in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, as well as the most recent modeling projections for key states by acclaimed election forecaster, statistician, and writer Nate Silver.

2024 state presidential odds

Presidential odds for U.S. states as of June 30, based on Nate Silver polling data from June 27.

Alabama

Electoral College Votes: 9

Since 2004, Alabama has consistently supported the Republican candidate, receiving between 60.3% and 62.5% of the state’s vote in every election. The last time a Democratic candidate won a majority in Alabama was in 1976 with Jimmy Carter.

U.S. presidential betting odds versus Nate Silver projections: Don’t expect any surprises in Alabama. The state’s strong Republican lean is unlikely to change before or after Nov. 5.

Alaska

Electoral College Votes: 3

It is rare for a Democratic candidate to win Alaska’s electoral college votes, but Biden’s 42.8% share of the vote in 2020 was the highest for Democrats since their victory in 1964. Republicans have consistently received over 50% of the vote since 1992.

Comparison between U.S. presidential betting odds and Nate Silver projections: Despite projections indicating that Alaska may not be as strongly in favor of the Republican candidate as other conservative states, Democrats should not expect much optimism as Biden is predicted to lose the progress he made in the state in 2020.

Arizona

Electoral College Votes: 11

The June 27 debate significantly shifted the betting odds for both parties, with unfavorable news for the Democrats. The race is no longer seen as “close” after Biden narrowly defeated Trump by 0.3% in the 2020 election, turning the state blue after five consecutive Republican wins.

Since 1996, Arizona has consistently had tight races, with both parties receiving at least 44.4% of the vote in every election. Before that, Republicans were dominant, winning an average of 61% of the vote from 1976 to 1988.

The betting odds for the U.S. presidential election in Arizona show more support for a Trump victory compared to Nate Silver’s projections. However, both indicators suggest that the Democrats face a challenging path to securing a repeat victory.

Arkansas

Electoral College Votes: 3

The Republicans have dominated in The Natural State during the 21st Century, with voters consistently leaning towards the red side. Republicans have seen their vote shares rise in each of the last five presidential elections leading up to 2024. In 2020, Biden only received 34.8% of the vote.

The outcome of the U.S. presidential election seems clear with the Republicans expected to win again, the only question is by how much. It is likely that the GOP will see their vote share increase for the sixth consecutive time.

California

Electoral College Votes: 54 (⬇️ 1)

The state with the highest number of electoral college votes consistently leans heavily towards the Democratic party. In the past four elections, Californians have voted for the Democratic candidate with over 60% of the vote each time, and the state has not been won by a Republican nominee since 1988.

The U.S. presidential betting odds and Nate Silver’s projections may use different metrics, but they both agree on one thing: Trump has no chance of winning California.

Colorado

Electoral College Votes: 10 (⬆️ 1)

Over the years, Colorado has experienced a significant rise in electoral college votes, increasing from 6 in 1968 to 10 in 2024 due to its fast-growing population. This trend spells trouble for the Republicans, as the Centennial State overwhelmingly voted blue with a record 55.4% majority in 2020. Democrats have emerged victorious in Colorado in the last four elections.

The U.S. presidential betting odds are indicating that Colorado is likely to remain a Democrat stronghold, despite the slight decrease in the gap between the parties in Nate Silver’s polling data following the first debate.

Connecticut

Electoral College Votes: 7

Even though Biden faced challenges during the June 27 presidential debate, Democrats are unlikely to lose this reliably blue state. Since 1992, Democratic candidates have consistently received at least 54 percent of the vote after five consecutive terms of Republican leadership.

The U.S. presidential betting odds and Nate Silver’s projections are almost identical, showing a high likelihood of a Democratic victory that is close to 100 percent. This is considered one of the safest bets available.

Delaware

Electoral College Votes: 3

For over thirty years, Delaware residents have consistently supported the Democrats, and it is predicted that this trend will continue in 2024. In the 2020 election, Biden received almost 59% of the vote compared to Trump’s 39.8%, mirroring the results of 2012. The gap between the two parties was even larger in 2008, with a 24.9% difference.

There is little suspense expected on Election Night as the Democrats hold a strong lead in the betting odds and Nate Silver’s projections suggest a comfortable win for Biden in Delaware.

Florida

Electoral College Votes: 30 (⬆️ 1)

In 2024, Florida will receive an additional electoral college vote. Although the state’s chances may not be as strong as other southern and midwestern states, anything other than a decisive Republican win would be considered a surprise. In the previous election, Trump garnered 51.2% of the vote, marking the most successful performance by the GOP in Florida since 2004.

The Democrats’ recent gains in Florida, cutting into the Republican lead by 2.2% over the past month, are not yet reflected in the U.S. presidential betting odds. However, if the Democratic momentum continues, it will likely impact the odds in their favor.

Georgia

Electoral College Votes: 16

Biden and the Democrats surprised the nation in the last election, breaking a streak of Republican control that dated back to 1996. However, their victory was by a tiny margin of 0.2% – and experts are not predicting a similar outcome in 2024.

Last time, the Democrats’ major advantage was the surge of support from voters who had previously supported other parties. Trump’s Republican vote share decreased by only 1.5% from the previous election, while Biden’s received a significant increase of almost 4%.

The U.S. presidential betting odds and Nate Silver’s projections are indicating that Democrats should start worrying about Georgia. Despite Biden’s lack of progress in polling over the last month, the odds have moved in Trump’s favor after the first debate.

Hawaii

Electoral College Votes: 4

It will be difficult to persuade even the most hopeful Republican voter that Hawaii has a chance of becoming a Republican state. The Democratic party has consistently received over 62.2% of the vote in each of the last four presidential elections, with percentages exceeding 70% in 2008 and 2012. The last time a Republican candidate won in Hawaii was in 1984 with Ronald Reagan.

The U.S. presidential betting odds have shifted slightly in favor of the Republicans in the past week, but Nate Silver’s projections still indicate a strong likelihood of a one-sided victory for the Democrats in Hawaii.

Idaho

Electoral College Votes: 4

The Republicans’ odds in this situation are unexpectedly not lower, considering their consistent dominance. In the 2020 election, Trump had a significant lead of over 30% over Biden, marking the third consecutive presidential election in which the Republicans had such a large advantage. Idaho has not voted for a Democrat since 1964.

The disparity between U.S. presidential betting odds and Nate Silver’s projections for Idaho is quite significant. With Trump’s -5000 odds, it’s like an NFL team being favored by 20.5 points, making the Republicans a very safe bet in this state.

Illinois

Electoral College Votes: 19 (⬇️ 1)

Oddsmakers predict that Illinois will vote Democratic in the upcoming presidential election for the ninth time in a row. This should come as no surprise, as the Democratic candidate won by a significant margin in the previous election. In 2020, Biden beat Trump by nearly 17%, marking the fourth consecutive time that Democrats received over 55% of the vote in Illinois.

U.S. presidential betting odds and Nate Silver’s projections both show Illinois as firmly Democratic, despite being surrounded by states expected to endorse Trump. However, the lost electoral college vote could have a significant impact.

Indiana

Electoral College Votes: 11

The state of Indiana has been a stronghold for the Republican party for the majority of the past 80 years. Only two Democrats have won in that time: Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and Barack Obama in 2008. It is unlikely that there will be a third Democratic victory this time, especially after Donald Trump won by a 16% margin in 2020. Predictions suggest a similar outcome in the upcoming November election.

Comparing U.S. presidential betting odds with Nate Silver’s projections: People in regions where political betting is allowed may be hesitant to bet on a -5000 outcome. However, Silver’s analysis shows that there are multiple -10000 options with nearly the same chances of winning, making the -5000 option a relatively good choice.

Iowa

Electoral College Votes: 6

The Republicans have gained a foothold in an area known for its fluctuating voting patterns, unlike most U.S. states. Over the past 12 elections, Democrats and the GOP have evenly divided victories, with Iowa leaning towards Democratic candidates in six out of seven presidential elections until the Republicans won in both 2016 and 2020.

I hope you took advantage of the -1900 odds I mentioned in my last update, as they have since decreased. With Nate Silver’s current projections, the likelihood of a Trump victory may decrease even further.

Kansas

Electoral College Votes: 6

Kansas consistently supports Republican presidential candidates, with Donald Trump winning by nearly 15% over Joe Biden in 2020, marking the 14th consecutive time the state has voted for the GOP. However, Biden made gains compared to Hillary Clinton’s 20.6% loss to Trump in 2016.

Comparison between U.S. presidential betting odds and Nate Silver projections: This particular Trump market appears to be heavily in favor of one side, suggesting bettors should act quickly as the odds are expected to drop to -5000 or lower in the near future.

Kentucky

Electoral College Votes: 8

Kentucky consistently leans Republican, with Democrats facing long odds in the state. In the past three presidential elections, Kentuckians have voted for the GOP candidate over 60.5% of the time, with Trump receiving 62.1% of the vote in 2020. The last Democrat to win Kentucky was Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996.

The comparison between U.S. presidential betting odds and Nate Silver’s projections in Kentucky demonstrates the rapid and significant shifts in odds. It underscores the importance for those seeking the best value to take advantage of one-sided markets with favorable payouts before they change.

Louisiana

Electoral College Votes: 8

In the past, it was surprising that a Republican candidate did not win in Louisiana for 80 years between 1876 and 1956. However, the political landscape has shifted significantly in the Bayou State, with the GOP emerging victorious in nine 9 of the last 11 presidential elections. Trump easily won in 2020, receiving 58.5% of the vote compared to Biden’s 39.9%.

According to U.S. presidential betting odds and Nate Silver’s projections, Louisiana may have a 20% difference between Trump and Biden, exceeding Trump’s margin of victory in the previous election. These eight electoral college votes are considered a safe bet for the GOP.

Maine (Congressional District 1)*

Electoral College Votes: 1

Maine (Congressional District 2)*

Electoral College Votes: 1

Oddsmakers are predicting a split in the congressional district vote for the third consecutive year, with Republicans expected to gain two additional votes to win the overall state. In 2020, Biden comfortably defeated Trump by more than 9%. The last Republican candidate to win the majority vote was George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Maine has two electoral votes as a state, with each district contributing one additional vote.

Maryland

Electoral College Votes: 10

Based on recent history, it is likely that the state results on election night will be very one-sided. In 2020, Biden received over double the votes of Trump in Maryland, continuing a trend where the Democratic candidate has garnered over 60% of the vote in the state in the last four presidential elections.

In the comparison between U.S. presidential betting odds and Nate Silver’s projections, Maryland stands out as the most one-sided state. Both the betting odds and Silver’s projections show that Maryland residents overwhelmingly favor the Democrats.

Massachusetts

Electoral College Votes: 11

Once again, in a northeastern U.S. state, the incumbent is expected to win by a landslide. Biden won by a remarkable 32.5% margin over Trump in 2020, marking the largest Democratic victory in Massachusetts and the seventh consecutive time the party has secured at least 59.8% of the total vote shares.

The recent U.S. presidential betting odds have slightly improved for Republicans, but Nate Silver’s projections still indicate a likely victory for the Democrats. The Republican gains may be temporary, similar to applying duct tape to a dam break. Democrats are expected to win decisively once again.

Michigan

Electoral College Votes: 15 (⬇️ 1)

Michigan’s electoral college influence has decreased over the years, now standing at 15 votes for the 2024 election compared to its peak of 21 votes in the 1970s. However, these votes still play a crucial role in reaching the 270 needed to win the presidency.

In 2016, Trump’s surprising victory in Michigan played a crucial role in his overall upset of Hilary Clinton. Although Biden won the state back in 2020, the race in Michigan remains too close to predict as of mid-June, according to sportsbooks. Anticipate significant fluctuations in the odds for this state.

Comparing U.S. presidential betting odds to Nate Silver’s projections: Democrats can take solace in the fact that Michigan voters did not immediately reject Biden after the debate. However, Trump’s current projection above 60% in Silver’s analysis is worrisome for the Democratic Party.

Minnesota

Electoral College Votes: 10

Minnesota has a captivating electoral college history, with Democrats consistently winning the past 12 presidential elections. Despite their victories, the margins of victory have been narrower compared to other states. In 2020, Biden claimed a 7.1% lead over Trump in Minnesota.

Comparison between U.S. presidential betting odds and Nate Silver’s projections shows that the Republicans are gaining ground on the Democrats (+0.3 L7, +0.2 L30). Chris LaCivita, senior presidential campaign adviser for Trump, believes that Trump can continue to make progress, as indicated by the changing odds.

Mississippi

Electoral College Votes: 6

Mississippi, once a state dominated by Democrats for over 80 years, has now been firmly in Republican control for over four decades. Trump received nearly 58% of the vote in both of his presidential campaigns, while Democrats have not surpassed 44% since 1996. The last Democrat to win in Mississippi was Carter in 1976.

The chances of Trump winning the U.S. presidential election are almost equal according to both the betting odds and Nate Silver’s projections. With probabilities so close and high, it is almost certain that this outcome is guaranteed. With odds at -3300, it’s a safe bet.

Missouri

Electoral College Votes: 10

Just over a decade ago, the Democratic and Republican votes were nearly tied in 2008, with the Dems winning by a slim 0.1%. Now, 15 years later, the Republicans are predicted to win their seventh straight victory in Missouri thanks to Trump’s decisive 15.4% win in 2020.

The U.S. presidential betting odds quickly shifted compared to Nate Silver’s projections, particularly in Missouri where the odds were heavily in favor of one candidate. This state can confidently be marked in red on your interactive electoral college map.

Montana

Electoral College Votes: 4 (⬆️ 1)

It is highly likely that Democrats will lose an additional electoral college vote in Montana, as the state’s count increases from three to four in 2024. Since 1968, only one Democratic presidential candidate has been successful in the state. Trump easily defeated Biden in the last election, winning almost 57% of the vote.

When comparing U.S. presidential betting odds to Nate Silver’s projections, it is clear that Biden and his team face an uphill battle in Montana. The state is heavily leaning towards the Republicans according to the latest data, making a one-sided victory for the GOP in November seem likely.

Nebraska (Congressional District 1)*

Electoral College Votes: 1

Nebraska (Congressional District 2)

Electoral College Votes: 1

Nebraska (Congressional District 3)*

Electoral College Votes: 1

Since Nebraska began splitting its electoral college votes between three congressional districts, Democrats have faced significant challenges in the state. They have only won a single vote in 2008 and 2020, and it is predicted that this trend will continue in the 2024 election. The Democrats are projected to win District 2, but are not expected to have any chance in the other two districts.

According to Nate Silver’s projections, Trump has a greater than 99% chance of winning in Districts 1 and 3, making it highly unlikely for the Republicans to lose a majority of electoral college votes in Nebraska unless a major unexpected event occurs.

Nebraska has two state votes, with each district earning an additional vote.

Nevada

Electoral College Votes: 6

Historically, the outcome of the presidency has often mirrored that of Nevada: In 10 out of the past 11 elections, the party that won the Silver State also captured the White House. The only deviation occurred in 2016, when Clinton prevailed in Nevada by 2.4% but ultimately lost the presidential election to Trump.

Biden secured the Democrats’ fourth consecutive victory in Nevada in 2020 with the same margin of victory, but recent odds in late June indicate that Trump may be able to win the state and its six electoral college votes. Nevada could become one of the most fiercely contested battleground states in the weeks leading up to Election Day.

The U.S. presidential betting odds are currently in favor of Trump at around 75% to flip a critical swing state, despite Nate Silver projections showing the Democrats losing ground at the end of the month. Democrats finished +1.5 L30 and are working hard to retain the state.

New Hampshire

Electoral College Votes: 4

The Democrats should be optimistic about their chances of holding onto the presidential majority in New Hampshire, even though recent close races have made the odds much tighter than in other Democratic strongholds. Although Biden won comfortably in 2020, Clinton’s narrow 0.3% victory in 2016 and a slim 1.3% win in 2004 show that there is still a possibility of a Republican surge.

After Trump’s strong performance in the first debate, the betting odds in favor of the Republicans increased slightly. However, this has actually made a Democratic victory a more attractive betting option due to the shift in odds.

New Jersey

Electoral College Votes: 14

In recent presidential elections, New Jersey has consistently favored Democratic candidates, with the party winning between 56% and 58.5% of the overall vote in five of the last six elections. This trend has resulted in eight consecutive wins for the Democrats in the state. The Republican stronghold in New Jersey is predicted to once again go to the Democrats in the 2024 election.

According to Nate Silver’s projections, the Democrats have an 85% chance of winning New Jersey in the upcoming U.S. presidential election. While this percentage has decreased slightly from previous months, it still indicates a strong likelihood of victory. With odds of -725, betting on the Democrats in New Jersey could be a smart choice compared to other states.

New Mexico

Electoral College Votes: 5

Republicans in the Land of Enchantment have not experienced much success in the past two decades, with Democrats consistently winning in New Mexico. President Biden’s 10.8% margin of victory in the state was the second-largest in 20 years, alleviating concerns over Hillary Clinton’s inability to secure 50% support in the previous election. Trump received only 40.0% and 43.5% support in his two presidential campaigns in New Mexico.

Comparison between U.S. presidential betting odds and Nate Silver projections suggests that individuals in regions where betting is legal should consider capitalizing on Trump’s lack of popularity in New Mexico. The state’s voters have shown hesitancy towards him in past elections, and it appears that this trend will continue.

New York

Electoral College Votes: 28 (⬇️ 1)

Despite the odds being at an impressive -1900, placing a bet on a Democratic presidential candidate winning New York appears to be a great opportunity. The Democrats have emerged victorious in the last nine elections in NY, with six of those wins being by a margin of 20% or more. This trend continued in 2020 when Biden secured a decisive victory with 60.9% of the vote, defeating Trump who received only 37.8%.

The U.S. presidential betting odds are currently not reflecting Nate Silver’s projections accurately, especially considering New York’s Democratic history. It is surprising that these odds are not expected to change drastically in the near future.

North Carolina

Electoral College Votes: 16 (⬆️ 1)

Are the Democrats able to win back North Carolina? Despite Biden improving by 2.4% over Clinton’s 2016 performance, oddsmakers are doubtful as Trump’s vote share remained steady between 49.8% and 49.9% in both elections.

Republicans have won the majority of the presidential vote in North Carolina in 10 out of the last 11 elections. The last four races have been extremely close, but President Trump is predicted to secure a victory in the upcoming election according to oddsmakers.

Comparing U.S. presidential betting odds to Nate Silver’s projections, the outlook appears grim for the Democrats as they have lost crucial polling ground (-0.4 L7, -0.3 L30). This could potentially be a high-value bet considering the strong probability of a Republican victory.

North Dakota

Electoral College Votes: 3

It is hard to find a state more secure for the Republican Party than North Dakota. The GOP has won the presidential vote in this state 20 out of the last 21 elections. In both 2016 and 2020, Trump defeated the Democrats by large margins, winning over Clinton by almost 36 percentage points and beating Biden by 33.3%.

Nate Silver’s projections show that North Dakota is expected to have one of the largest margins of victory for the Republicans in the upcoming presidential election, despite the state only having three electoral votes. This significant win is likely to be a source of satisfaction for the GOP.

Ohio

Electoral College Votes: 18 (⬇️ 1)

For a considerable period of time, Ohio has stood out as a captivating battleground state in the United States. In the 2020 presidential election, Biden’s victory broke a streak of 14 elections where the winner of Ohio went on to win the presidency (in this instance, Trump). The historical pattern seems to favor Trump, as he defeated both Clinton and Biden by 8.1% in the 2016 and 2020 elections, respectively.

The U.S. presidential betting odds show that the Democrats have made significant gains in polling over the last month (+1.6%), but they still lag behind by almost 9% and are quickly running out of time to close the gap.

Oklahoma

Electoral College Votes: 7

The number seven is anything but lucky for Democrats in Oklahoma, as they are unlikely to be competitive in the state. Trump has consistently received over 65% of the vote in consecutive elections, with the Republican Party surpassing this threshold five times in a row. Oklahoma has not voted for a Democrat since 1964.

Comparing U.S. presidential betting odds to Nate Silver’s projections, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Oklahoma could be called in favor of Trump due to the low percentage of counted ballots. With Trump potentially earning 70% of the votes, it is a realistic outcome.

Oregon

Electoral College Votes: 8 (⬆️ 1)

The Pacific Northwest is solidly in support of Biden, and Democrats are expected to continue their dominance in the region in the 2024 election. Biden won by almost 16 percentage points in 2020, marking the largest margin of victory in Oregon since 2008. Since 2004, no Republican candidate has come within double digits of their Democratic opponent in the region.

The U.S. presidential betting odds and Nate Silver’s projections have the same numbers for the current odds, suggesting a Democratic win in Oregon is highly likely. With a -1900 odds, it seems like a strong bet.

Pennsylvania

Electoral College Votes: 19 (⬇️ 1)

Pennsylvania, formerly a political force with 38 electoral college votes, now only has half that number. However, winning over this state will greatly impact the chances of either Biden or Trump winning the presidency. As of mid-June, the competition for Pennsylvania is fierce.

In response to Trump’s victory in flipping Pennsylvania red for the first time since 1988, Biden narrowly secured 50.0% of the vote to hold off his GOP rival. Trump is now considered a slight favorite to win back the state in the upcoming election. Pennsylvania has a history of producing closely contested races on Election Day, and it appears that 2024 will be no exception.

The betting odds for the U.S. presidential election compared to Nate Silver’s projections show that Pennsylvania had one of the largest polling gains for Democrats in the month, with an increase of +1.4%. Winning Pennsylvania is crucial for Democrats to secure the presidency, and although the path to victory is challenging, any progress is a positive sign.

Rhode Island

Electoral College Votes: 4

Rhode Island has seen nearly a century of Democratic dominance, which is projected to continue in this year’s presidential election. Democrats have emerged victorious in the last nine elections in the smallest state in the union, with no Republican candidate receiving more than 38.9% of the vote since 1988. In the previous election, Biden secured a decisive 21% victory over Trump.

The U.S. presidential betting odds are in stark contrast to Nate Silver’s projections for the Rhode Island vote. Silver predicts that the state will have the ninth-largest margin of victory among Democratic wins, indicating little doubt about the outcome.

South Carolina

Electoral College Votes: 9

No Democratic candidate has won in South Carolina since Jimmy Carter, and it seems unlikely that trend will change in 2024. Trump easily defeated Clinton and Biden in the past two elections, and the state has not seen a close race since Ronald Reagan narrowly beat Carter in 1980.

It is likely that South Carolina will have Republican victory odds at -4000 or lower, according to U.S. presidential betting odds compared to Nate Silver projections. Despite the lack of competition in this race, it is surprising that the number is only -2500.

South Dakota

Electoral College Votes: 3

If you can’t recall the last time a Democrat won in South Dakota, don’t worry – it’s been a long time. Republicans have consistently won the state’s electoral college votes since 1968, with the last three Democratic presidential candidates failing to receive even 40% of the vote. Trump won with over 61% in both of his victories in the state.

Nate Silver projects a Republican victory of over 25 points in South Dakota, one of nine states where this is expected. Bookies have already adjusted the GOP odds accordingly, making them unfavorable for betting.

Tennessee

Electoral College Votes: 11

Securing a state with double-digit electoral college votes is a source of encouragement for the Republicans. Trump easily won with 60.7% of the vote in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, and it is likely that the 2024 results will be similar. The GOP has consistently beaten the Democrats by 20 points in the last three elections.

I had previously recommended that the U.S. presidential betting odds for the Republicans be set at -5000 or lower. It didn’t take long for the books to make that adjustment. According to Nate Silver’s projections, the odds could potentially drop even further.

Texas

Electoral College Votes: 40 (⬆️ 2)

There has been a significant development in Texas’ electoral college vote with a two-point increase, giving the Republican Party a stronger advantage in southern states. Despite this, it is important to recognize that Democrats have made significant progress over the years, increasing their support from 38% in 2000 to 46.5% in Biden’s 2020 election against Trump.

Nevertheless, Texas has not quite reached the status of a “battleground state” yet. Republicans have consistently won elections in Texas since 1980, and with the state’s population continuing to grow rapidly, it will only become a more crucial component of the Republicans’ presidential strategy.

The U.S. presidential betting odds are facing off against Nate Silver’s projections, with Texas potentially becoming a battleground state. While the Democrats (+1.8 L30) are determined to shake things up, if they continue their recent momentum, there could be a lot of discussion surrounding the state’s political landscape.

Utah

Electoral College Votes: 6

Utah’s presidential election outcomes have been a bit of a rollercoaster for the typically dominant Republicans. While Democrats continue to struggle to garner more than 38% of the vote in the state with a large Mormon population, the Republican Party, which used to consistently receive over 70% of the vote, saw a decrease with their candidate earning only 45.5% in 2016 and 58.1% in 2020.

The U.S. presidential betting odds are more favorable for Trump compared to Nate Silver’s projections. While Utah natives may not be enthusiastic about Trump, they are showing strong disapproval of Biden. The Democrats have experienced a significant 4.3% decline in the polls in the last 30 days, indicating that the outcome of the election is becoming more certain.

Vermont

Electoral College Votes: 3

The state of Vermont has emerged as a strong supporter of the Democratic Party, with three out of the last four Democratic candidates receiving at least 66.1% of the vote. President Biden achieved this same percentage, resulting in a 35.4% margin of victory over Trump. Vermont’s electoral college votes are considered some of the most secure for Biden.

Comparing U.S. presidential betting odds to Nate Silver’s projections: While I don’t typically endorse betting on a -5000 play, if you must place a wager, a Democratic victory in Vermont may yield a small profit. According to Silver, Vermont is expected to have the second-highest Democratic margin of victory at 26.5%.

Virginia

Electoral College Votes: 13

Virginia is one of the few states in the United States that has seen a significant change in its presidential voting patterns. Previously a stronghold for Republican candidates from 1952 to 2004, Virginia has shifted towards the Democratic Party, supporting Barack Obama in multiple elections and staying loyal to the Democrats in subsequent elections. In 2020, Joe Biden won the state by a 10-point margin over Donald Trump.

The U.S. presidential betting odds and Nate Silver projections show a promising shift for the Republicans in Virginia (+0.6 L7, +0.3 L30), despite the overall gap remaining large. Virginia, once a deep red state just 20 years ago, now shows potential for a flip in 2024 according to the odds. The Republicans have reason to be pleased with this development.

Washington

Electoral College Votes: 13

The Democratic presidential nominees are highly favored on the West Coast, with Washington showing strong support for the blue party. In the 2020 election, Biden won by almost 20 percentage points over Trump, solidifying the Democrats’ hold on Washington State for 32 years and counting. Oddsmakers predict this trend will continue in the future.

In a rare occurrence, U.S. presidential betting odds are more optimistic about a one-sided result compared to Nate Silver’s projections. Despite the Democrats expected to secure the state with ease, the latest polling data showing only a single-digit lead may not satisfy many in Biden’s camp.

Washington, D.C.

Electoral College Votes: 3

DC is a guaranteed win for the Democrats in the electoral college, with no Republican candidate receiving more than 10% of the vote since 1988. In 2020, Biden received 92.2% of the vote, the second-highest in history after Obama’s 92.5% in 2008.

The safest bet in this article is the U.S. presidential betting odds compared to Nate Silver’s projections. Silver predicts a 78.1% chance of Democrats winning the U.S. capital. No matter the odds you receive on the Democrats, you are guaranteed to make a profit.

West Virginia

Electoral College Votes: 4 (⬇️ 1)

In 2020, the only positive development in West Virginia was that Biden managed to halt the Democrats’ decline in presidential vote share after five consecutive losses. Despite this small victory, the Democrats were overwhelmingly defeated when Trump won by nearly 40 points with 68.6% of the vote. Republicans have now secured West Virginia in the last six presidential elections.

According to Nate Silver’s projections, the odds of a Republican victory in the U.S. presidential election are increasing, with a margin of victory expected to be similar to that of 2016.

Wisconsin

Electoral College Votes: 10

Wisconsin will once again play a crucial role in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with its ten electoral college votes being among the most important. Like in the past two elections, the winning party will likely secure victory in the state by a narrow margin.

The last two Wisconsin verdicts were determined by a narrow margin of seven tenths of a percentage point, with Trump winning in 2016 and Biden reclaiming the state for the Democrats in 2020. In previous elections in the early 2000s, the gaps were even tighter, with just 0.2% separating the candidates in 2000 and a four-tenths gap in 2004.

The U.S. presidential betting odds and Nate Silver’s projections are showing a close race between the Democrats and Republicans. Despite the Democrats briefly pulling ahead in the odds, Silver’s projections indicate a strong advantage for the GOP. The upcoming election in Wisconsin is expected to be a close contest, making it a highly unpredictable state in the betting market.

Wyoming

Electoral College Votes: 3

There is little drama to be found in Wyoming, a state that has consistently voted Republican in presidential elections since 1964. Despite Biden narrowing the gap between himself and Clinton, he still finished 43.3% behind Trump in the state. Republicans have secured at least 64.8% of the vote in Wyoming in the last six elections.

According to Nate Silver’s projections, no state is expected to have a larger Republican margin of victory than Wyoming in the U.S. presidential betting odds. Silver predicts that Trump will win by over 43 points in Wyoming, making it a sure bet for the GOP.

2020 electoral college results

Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election was secured with a total of 306 electoral votes, well above the 270 needed to claim the presidency. Trump earned 232 electoral votes. Biden’s triumph was largely due to his ability to flip crucial battleground states that Trump had carried in the 2016 election, such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes were essential in helping Biden surpass the necessary 270 threshold. Victories in Michigan (16 electoral votes) and Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) also played a significant role in his overall success. Furthermore, winning traditionally Republican-leaning states such as Arizona (11 electoral votes) and Georgia (16 electoral votes) showcased Biden’s wide appeal and highlighted the changing political dynamics in these areas.

The 2020 election saw record-breaking voter participation and a substantial increase in mail-in voting, primarily driven by the COVID-19 crisis. As a result, the counting of votes was prolonged in crucial swing states. Despite President Trump and his supporters filing multiple legal challenges and making allegations of election fraud, the election results were ultimately certified by all states.

The Electoral College officially voted in December 2020 to confirm Biden’s victory, which was later verified by Congress on January 6, 2021, after completing the certification process.

Where can I bet on the U.S. presidential election?

In the U.S., legal and regulated sports betting sites do not provide odds on elections, but our top Ontario sports betting apps do. All major Ontario sportsbooks offer this market under categories such as “politics” and “novelty”.

Currently, most books provide odds for the presidential election winner and winning party, with some offering additional prop markets. It is anticipated that more markets will become available as the campaign intensifies in the coming months.

U.S. presidential election FAQs

Who is the favorite for the 2024 U.S. election?

Donald Trump, the ex-president, is still the frontrunner with -125 odds to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Who won the last U.S. presidential election?

Joe Biden was elected as the 46th President of the United States after winning against the incumbent Donald J. Trump in the 2020 election.

When will the U.S. presidential election be decided?

The presidential election for the United States in 2024 is scheduled for Tuesday, November 5th.

Where will the U.S. presidential election be decided?

Candidates will travel to various cities and states to campaign for office until November 2024. Ultimately, voters will determine the President of the United States at polling booths nationwide.

How to watch the U.S. presidential election

The results of the 2024 United States presidential election will be covered by all major news outlets.

2024 presidential election betting odds pages

Here are our best political betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
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• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

*Bonuses cannot be claimed in Ontario. If you are 21 or older and have a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Related pages

• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Underscoreg Promos (U.S. only)