76ers vs. Mavericks Odds, Picks, Predictions: Who Will Step Up in Primetime?
Following a convincing victory on Wednesday in which Joel Embiid did not play, the Philadelphia 76ers will head to Dallas to take on the Mavericks in a highly anticipated showdown featuring the dynamic duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Keep reading for our NBA predictions using the top NBA betting lines.
The Philadelphia 76ers hold the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference and are scheduled to play the Dallas Mavericks in a nationally-televised game on the second night of a back-to-back. Despite not having their star player Joel Embiid, the 76ers dominated the Miami Heat. Embiid’s status for the upcoming game against the Mavericks is uncertain but he is expected to play.
The Dallas Mavericks are anticipated to have a full roster with the exception of Davis Bertans. Despite acquiring Kyrie Irving in a major trade, the team has been underwhelming, winning only one of their last six games. Their struggles can be attributed to their poor paint defense, which ranks among the worst in the NBA with their revamped lineup.
Below is our top pick for the 76ers vs. Mavericks NBA game, with odds from FanDuel and confidence level rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.
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76ers vs. Mavericks pick
Tobias Harris Over 19.5 points and rebounds (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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The player props for this game are set as if Joel Embiid will be playing, which is reasonable considering his injury is not seen as serious. He sat out the first part of Philadelphia’s road back-to-back, so overs on high-usage starters like Tobias Harris would be a good bet if Embiid is ruled out. However, even if Embiid does play, this particular line is still very appealing.
In half of his games this season when James Harden and Joel Embiid are on the court, Harris has successfully cleared this line 18 times. Now, he faces a favorable matchup for scoring and rebounding. In their recent games, the Mavericks have been giving up a high number of points and rebounds to small forwards, ranking 11th and 7th in the league, respectively. Harris, with his specific skill set, is poised to take advantage of this matchup against the Mavericks, who have become less deep and versatile defensively since acquiring Irving.
Since teaming up on Feb. 11, Doncic and Irving have contributed to the Mavericks allowing the third-highest number of restricted area field goals per game and the seventh-highest number of paint area field goals per game, with the second-highest shooting percentage in both zones in the NBA. Harris, known for his slashing abilities throughout his career, has made 62.7% of his field goals from these areas, representing 52.9% of his total attempts and ranking third on the team in makes from each zone.
Looking at the rebounding stats of players with a similar average rebound distance of 6.7 feet to Harris in the second half of our combo, they will be up against the Doncic and Irving version of the Mavericks lineup.
- Keegan Murray: Six rebounds in 28 minutes
- Terence Davis: Six rebounds in 32 minutes
- Anthony Edwards: Five rebounds in 36 minutes
- Keita Bates-Diop: Six rebounds in 29 minutes
- Jarred Vanderbilt: 17 rebounds in 27 minutes
- Buddy Hield: Five rebounds in 28 minutes
We anticipate a tight match that will require the starters to play for the entire game, allowing Harris ample opportunity to prove himself on the court.
76ers vs. Mavericks best odds
FanDuel (-115)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
| Over 19.5 points and rebounds | Over 19.5 points and rebounds | Over 19.5 points and rebounds | Over 19.5 points and rebounds | N/A |
| -120 | -115 | -120 | -119 | N/A |
The best value for the Over on this combination bet is currently on FanDuel, where you will pay the lowest juice for the universal line of 19.5. If your usual sportsbook does not offer this combination, you can consider betting on Over 14.5 points or Over 5.5 rebounds if the odds are in your favor, as I like both options. However, I recommend sticking with the original combo bet mentioned above, which I am confident in with a four-star rating (one unit). If the line moves to 20.5, the confidence in the Over decreases to a three-star rating (0.5 units).
As Harris has the potential to grab 10 rebounds, consider placing 0.25 units on him to achieve a double-double. You can create the same-game parlay on PointsBet with this bet.
- Tobias Harris 10-plus points
- Tobias Harris 10-plus rebounds
This parlay with two legs is currently at odds of +1400, while the double-double option has dropped to +800 on other books.
76ers vs. Mavericks odds
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76ers vs. Mavericks odds analysis
Despite their defensive struggles, the Dallas Mavericks opened as 3-point favorites but the line has now shifted to -3.5 or -4 in favor of Dallas on most books due to public betting. The Mavericks have a poor ATS record when both Doncic and Irving play, and they have struggled as a home favorite this season. On the other hand, the 76ers have a solid ATS record as a road underdog and boast one of the best cover rates in the NBA overall.
The initial total for this game was 230.5, but there has been notable line movement since then. Despite over 60% of the public favoring the Over, the total has now shifted to 228 to 229 in most books. Dallas and Philadelphia are both ranked among the NBA’s top six teams for going Over, with the Mavericks holding a 35-28 record and the 76ers at 33-27-1.
76ers vs. Mavericks game info
- Date: Thursday, March 2, 2023, 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
- Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
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