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Best bets today from around the NBA.
Best bets today from around the NBA.

We’re analyzing our top NBA player prop bets and the most favorable wagers for Friday using the best NBA odds available.

Our NBA best bets article experienced its first losing night of the week on Thursday, finishing with a 1-1 record and a loss of 0.08 units. While our Under 21.5 points bet on Miles Bridges did not pan out, Lu Dort exceeded expectations by scoring over his total of 7.5 points.

Friday’s schedule is filled with exciting games that could give us a preview of the Eastern and Western Conference Finals. The Boston Celtics will take on the Philadelphia 76ers on ESPN, and then the Denver Nuggets will face the Phoenix Suns.

I consider both of these matchups must-watch television, but the real question is why am I focusing on a player prop for the New Orleans Pelicans?

Check out our NBA player props and top bets for Friday, with odds from our recommended NBA betting sites. Confidence levels are rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

Friday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via BetMGM)

Friday’s NBA best bets

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Friday’s NBA player props

Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 assists vs. 76ers (-135 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The upcoming Celtics vs. 76ers game on Friday will feature a different dynamic compared to their last meeting in early November. Kristaps Porzingis will be absent for the Celtics, and it seems likely that Joel Embiid will also be missing from the game as he was not present at shootaround.

Porzingis’ absence has led to the Celtics implementing a fluid five-out offense, where all players are actively creating scoring opportunities for each other. In the last two games without Porzingis, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Derrick White, and Jrue Holiday have all recorded over nine potential assists per game.

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Brown’s assists should be higher than 2.5 with the Celtics playing that style of basketball, and the Over bet is priced at -135.

Without Embiid, the 76ers will have a gap in rim protection, allowing the Celtics to easily score at the rim and rack up assists.

Brown is expected to record 3.3 assists against the 76ers on Friday, making it a good opportunity to bet on the Over of 2.5 assists at -168. It is recommended to place this bet sooner rather than later, as the market has already seen significant movement.

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CJ McCollum Over 17.5 points vs. Spurs (-103 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Pelicans are facing a back-to-back game that may result in a blowout, typically not a good situation for betting Overs. However, I have a different opinion when it comes to McCollum.

McCollum is recovering from a collapsed lung and is slowly getting back into game shape. If I were the Pelicans, I would take advantage of the game against the San Antonio Spurs to give McCollum some playing time and opportunities to take shots. However, it would be wise to have him sit out the second leg of the back-to-back game on Saturday. Considering his recent health issue, it doesn’t seem likely that McCollum would be able to play in back-to-back games just yet.

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The Spurs will have a tough time defending against Zion Williamson, the Pelicans’ big man, on the basketball court. They may need to send additional support to contain him. Just like the Philadelphia 76ers experienced on Wednesday, the Pelicans strategically placed McCollum on the same side as Williamson to take advantage of the defensive help being focused on Williamson. This could result in open 3-point opportunities for McCollum. The Spurs may have to accept giving McCollum plenty of open shots because they cannot effectively guard Williamson without extra help.

McCollum is expected to score 19.7 points on Friday, making the over 17.5 points a good bet at -148 odds. With this projection, we have a potential 18% expected value by taking advantage of the -103 price at BetRivers.

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Best NBA bets placed on 12/1/2023 at 6:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

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