NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Tuesday
The NBA In-Season Tournament’s group stage wraps up on Tuesday, and we have you covered with our top NBA player props and the best bets for Tuesday based on the most favorable NBA odds.
Malcolm Brogdon had us feeling confident on Monday night, but he exceeded expectations by going under his total of 7.5 assists. Thanks to Ivica Zubac’s contribution of one assist, we ended the night with a perfect 2-0 record on our NBA best bets, earning 1.66 units.
Tuesday promises to be an exciting day in the NBA as teams compete in the final games of the In-Season Tournament group stage. Six spots in the quarterfinals are on the line.
That’s correct, six!
The Los Angeles Lakers and Indiana Pacers are the only teams to advance to the quarterfinals of the NBA In-Season Tournament. Point differentials and tiebreakers will be the focus of discussion during Tuesday’s games.
The main issue at hand is how to use these tiebreakers to our advantage in our NBA player props for Tuesday.
Be sure to read our Warriors-Kings prediction in addition to our NBA player props and top bets for Tuesday, all based on odds from our recommended NBA betting sites. Confidence levels are rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.
Tuesday’s NBA schedule and odds
(Odds via BetMGM)
- Toronto Raptors (+105) vs. Brooklyn Nets (-125)
- Milwaukee Bucks (-155) vs. Miami Heat (+125)
- Atlanta Hawks (+150) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (-185)
- Chicago Bulls (+625) vs. Boston Celtics (-1000)
- Charlotte Hornets (+450) vs. New York Knicks (-650)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (+135) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (-160)
- Houston Rockets (+165) vs. Dallas Mavericks (-200)
- Golden State Warriors (+105) vs. Sacramento Kings (-125)
Tuesday’s NBA best bets
- Darius Garland Over 6.5 assists vs. Hawks (+112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Kyrie Irving Over 4.5 assists vs. Rockets (+102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 assists vs. Thunder (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Tuesday’s NBA player props
Darius Garland Over 6.5 assists vs. Hawks (+112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Cleveland Cavaliers are still in the running for the NBA In-Season Tournament, but their advancement depends on beating the Atlanta Hawks by a sizeable margin to maintain the most favorable point differential among the teams with a 3-1 record. With a current point differential of plus-6, the Cavaliers need to secure a win against the Hawks that will increase their point differential and give them a better shot at moving on in the tournament.
What makes Garland’s assists prop appealing to me is the fact that Cavaliers head coach J.B. Bickerstaff has demonstrated a willingness to play him for over 40 minutes this season. Given the Cavaliers’ need to secure a victory by a significant margin, I anticipate Garland will see an uptick in playing time, making his assists prop a promising bet.
With Donovan Mitchell back in the Cavaliers’ lineup, I am even more inclined to bet on Garland’s assists prop. Mitchell’s presence on the court draws defensive attention away from Garland, giving him more room to operate and create scoring opportunities for his teammates.
According to projections, Garland is expected to have 7.1 assists on Tuesday. This allows us to bet on Over 6.5 assists at -124 odds, but it is currently trading at +112 on FanDuel. Based on this projection, this bet offers a positive expected value of 17%.
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Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 assists vs. Thunder (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This bet is moving fast. I initially placed it on FanDuel at -110, but that line quickly changed. Luckily, bet365 is offering a unique price on this prop, with Towns still at -120 while other sportsbooks have him at -140.
The Thunder lack the necessary size to effectively defend both Towns and Rudy Gobert simultaneously. Chet Holmgren will be tasked with guarding Gobert, leaving Jalen Williams to defend Towns.
Williams, with a 7-foot-2 wingspan, will be back in the Thunder’s lineup on Tuesday despite being only 6-foot-5. Towns, not typically physical, will benefit from his size advantage against Williams and should have no trouble finding his spots and getting open for passes from his teammates.
It is difficult to imagine Williams being able to defend Towns one-on-one for the entire game, especially considering he is coming back from an injury. I anticipate the Thunder will provide some help defense on Towns, creating opportunities for open teammates to receive assists.
I believe the Over on Towns’ assists prop is a great deal at -153, with a projection of 3.2 assists.
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Kyrie Irving Over 4.5 assists vs. Rockets (+102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
I’ve been watching Irving’s assists prop closely for weeks, and with three consecutive Unders and a decrease in his total from 5.5 to 4.5 (with better odds), now is the ideal time to place a bet and capitalize on this opportunity.
According to reports, Luka Doncic is expected to play on Tuesday despite injuring his left wrist in the Dallas Mavericks’ previous game. Although the injury may not affect his shooting ability, it could present challenges with dribbling the ball. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Kyrie Irving handling the ball more on Tuesday to prevent any worsening of Doncic’s wrist injury.
Irving is expected to have 5.2 assists against the Rockets on Tuesday, which makes the decrease from 5.5 to 4.5 assists a significant factor in giving us an advantage in this bet. With a projection of 5.2, it doesn’t seem worth it to bet on Irving getting more than 5.5 assists. Given this prediction, we can set Irving’s odds at -137 to exceed 4.5 assists.
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Best NBA bets as of 11/28/2023 at 6:30 a.m. ET.
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