2025 NBA Rookie of the Year Predictions & Odds: UConn Duo in Best Situation to Win Open Race
We are providing our NBA Rookie of the Year predictions for the upcoming season, in what is considered one of the most unpredictable races in recent memory, based on the latest NBA odds.
Although France’s Zaccharie Risacher was selected as the No. 1 pick by the Atlanta Hawks, he was not favored to win the NBA Rookie of the Year award.
Alexandre Sarr, also from France, is the frontrunner to win the award, having been selected by the Washington Wizards right after Risacher. However, despite being the top two picks with the lowest odds, there may be better bets for NBA Rookie of the Year.
Instead of fixating on two players with uncertain futures, I am analyzing a rookie who is paired with a potential NBA MVP candidate, a player known for their consistent performance, and a standout athlete on a well-established team.
I am steering clear of an older rookie who is joining an NBA championship contender that is receiving shorter odds than they deserve.
NBA Rookie of the Year predictions
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- Favorite: Stephon Castle (+750 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Contender: Donovan Clingan (+2000 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Long shot: Devin Carter (+4000 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
- Fade: Dalton Knecht (+1200 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
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NBA Rookie of the Year odds and picks
| Name | DraftKings | BetMGM | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Sarr | +350 ❄️ | +425 | +400 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | +450 | +600 | +450 |
| Stephon Castle | +700 | +700 | +750 |
| Reed Sheppard | +1200 | +1100 | +1100 |
| Donovan Clingan | +1200 ❄️ | +2000 | +1600 |
| Tidjane Salaun | +1200 | +1000 ❄️ | +1200 |
| Dalton Knecht | +1200 | +900 ❄️ | +1100 |
| Cody Williams | +1400 ❄️ | +1500 | +1600 |
| Zach Edey | +1400 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Ronald Holland | +1500 | +1400 ❄️ | +1800 |
Favorite: Stephon Castle ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I believe Castle is the top rookie to bet on for the award among players with odds less than +1000. Sarr is on a weak NBA team, and I doubt he can score enough points to win the award. In the past 20 years, Malcolm Brogdon is the only NBA Rookie of the Year winner to average fewer than 15 PPG.
In contrast to Sarr, Risacher faces a different challenge. He is joining a Hawks team that has a strong chance of making the playoffs under Quin Snyder’s second full season as head coach. With most of last season’s rotation returning, including five players averaging over 15.5 PPG, Risacher may struggle to get enough playing time as a rookie.
At the same time, Castle becomes a valuable addition to a team seeking a sidekick to Victor Wembanyama’s Batman. While his defensive skills may not earn him any awards, his tenacity on the court guarantees him significant playing time under Gregg Popovich.
Castle’s electrifying athleticism and knack for driving to the basket will be on full display. Another advantage is the increased viewership of Spurs games this season, as it can only benefit to have the voters see you play more often. Betting on these odds will yield a $75 profit for every $10 wagered.
The best odds on bet365 are +750, which implies a probability of 11.76%.
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Contender: Donovan Clingan ⭐⭐⭐
While a French duo currently leads the NBA Rookie of the Year odds, the two UConn Huskies are better positioned to take home the award. This is not intended to spark a debate between France and the USA; we can reserve that discussion for when the top two men’s Olympic basketball favorites face off this summer.
However, I believe that if you are considering placing a bet on a defensive center to win the award, Clingan would be a wiser choice over Sarr. This is primarily due to the significantly longer odds available at BetMGM. Clingan is being priced in a similar or even longer range than players who were selected outside of the top 10.
Although Clingan fell to the seventh pick and joined a team with a reputation for struggling with big men, the Portland Trail Blazers present him with the chance to anchor their defense, lead in rebounding, and be the fourth scoring option. I am confident that he is among the top three players in this draft class and has the potential to become a center on par with Marc Gasol.
Let’s talk about the former No. 1 pick, Deandre Ayton. It seems likely that he will be traded soon, and when that happens, I anticipate the odds will drop to around +1200. So, it’s a good idea to place your bet now, as a $10 wager could potentially win you $210.
Top odds: +2000 on BetMGM | Probability of winning: 4.76%
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Long shot: Devin Carter ⭐⭐
The most unexpected moment of the 2024 NBA Draft for me was not Zach Edey being selected at No. 9 or Dalton Knecht slipping to the Los Angeles Lakers, but rather Carter falling out of the top 12. I was convinced that the Providence star would be among the first 10 players chosen.
The Sacramento Kings likely saw the potential in drafting the son of Anthony Carter, as evidenced by their eagerness to secure him. With a roster full of established scorers, Carter’s defensive skills could be his ticket to earning playing time on the court. Additionally, it is worth noting that Bronny James has odds of +30000 to win this award.
His tenacious defense, hustle, and versatility in guarding bigger players have drawn comparisons to Jrue Holiday. Additionally, his exceptional athleticism was on full display at the NBA Draft Combine, where he impressed scouts. Furthermore, he showcased improved skills as a 3-point shooter during his time with the Friars.
In reality, he faces tough odds. Since the award was created in 1952, only six players selected outside of the top 10 have won it. Michael-Carter Williams was one of them in 2013, coming from a weak draft class. A $10 bet could bring a $400 profit if Carter manages to win.
Top odds available at BetMGM are +4000, indicating an implied probability of 2.44%.
Fade: Dalton Knecht ⭐⭐⭐
The decreasing value of Knecht is more about the price than his abilities as a player. Despite being selected as the 17th pick in the draft, he has better odds of winning NBA Rookie of the Year than players chosen in the top 10.
I am a huge supporter of Knecht and believe he was a great choice by the Lakers, especially when there were rumors they might select Bronny James. However, I can’t shake the feeling that this could be a risky move.
He will be joining an L.A. team focused on winning now, with LeBron James aging and JJ Redick as the new coach aiming to lead the team to a championship. Knecht is expected to be the fifth option at best at the beginning of the season, and it is unlikely that he will receive many opportunities, especially if the Lakers acquire another All-Star player.
I believe he will be a valuable asset to the Lakers, providing strong 3-point shooting off the bench. However, I am surprised that he has the fourth-shortest odds for NBA Rookie of the Year at two out of our top three sportsbooks.
Top odds: +1200 on DraftKings | Probability of winning: 7.69%
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Past NBA Rookie of the Year winners
| Year | Name | Team | Preseason odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | -145 |
| 2022-23 | Paolo Banchero | Orlando Magic | +200 |
| 2021-22 | Scottie Barnes | Toronto Raptors | +1100 |
| 2020-21 | LaMelo Ball | Charlotte Hornets | +400 |
| 2019-20 | Ja Morant | Memphis Grizzlies | +250 |
| 2018-19 | Luka Doncic | Dallas Mavericks | +250 |
| 2017-18 | Ben Simmons | Philadelphia 76ers | +225 |
How to bet on NBA Rookie of the Year
Betting on the NBA Rookie of the Year is a simple process. Start by selecting a trusted sportsbook that offers futures for the award. Compare the odds for different rookies, with lower odds indicating a higher likelihood of winning. For example, if Player A has +300 odds and Player B has +500, Player A is the favored choice.
Decide on your wager amount before placing your bet. If you bet $100 on Player A at +300 and they win, you will receive $400 in return ($100 stake + $300 profit). Monitor the performances of the rookies throughout the season to track the progress of your bet.
What causes the odds to change in future markets?
Primarily, it revolves around performance and how players are perceived. When a rookie excels or gets injured, their odds can fluctuate. Additionally, a surge in bets on a specific player can lead sportsbooks to adjust the odds in order to mitigate their risk.
In addition, expert predictions and analysis have the potential to impact betting decisions, consequently influencing the odds. Being aware of these factors can assist in making more informed bets and potentially taking advantage of favorable odds changes.
How to read NBA Rookie of the Year odds
Understanding NBA Rookie of the Year (ROY) odds becomes straightforward once you grasp the fundamentals. Odds are commonly displayed in a format such as +300 or -150. Positive odds (e.g., +300) demonstrate the potential profit on a $100 wager.
If you were to place a $100 bet at +300 odds, you would win $300 in addition to your original $100 wager, giving you a total of $400. On the other hand, negative odds like -150 indicate how much you must bet to earn $100. So, a $150 bet at -150 odds would result in a $100 profit, along with your initial $150 stake, totaling $250.
Odds represent the likelihood of a particular result occurring. A lower odds value (e.g., +100) implies a greater chance of the player winning, whereas higher odds (e.g., +1000) signify a lower probability.
Underscores modify these odds by taking into account factors such as player performance, injuries, and betting trends.
If Rookie A has odds of +200 and Rookie B has odds of +500, it means that Rookie A is more likely to win. For instance, if you bet $100 on Rookie A and they win, you would receive $300 back ($200 profit plus your initial $100 stake). Understanding these odds is crucial for making wise betting choices.
NBA Rookie of the Year FAQs
Who is the NBA Rookie of the Year favorite?
The Washington Wizards’ rookie, Alexandre Sarr, who was the No. 2 overall pick, is the frontrunner to win NBA Rookie of the Year. With odds as low as +350, there is a 22.22% chance he will take home the award.
Who won the NBA Rookie of the Year Award last year?
Victor Wembanyama was named the NBA Rookie of the Year for the 2023-24 season after posting impressive averages of 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and a league-leading 3.6 blocks. His odds were so favorable that they closed as short as -10000.
When will the NBA Rookie of the Year be named?
The 2023-24 award was revealed on Monday, May 6, during the NBA playoffs, indicating that the 2024-25 award will likely be determined around the same time.
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