NBA Finals Expert Picks: Mavericks vs. Celtics Series Predictions
Our expert picks for the 2024 NBA Finals showdown between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks are based on the odds provided by top NBA betting sites.
The Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks, both seeking their first championship in over ten years, will compete in the 2024 NBA Finals. Game 1 will begin tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC at TD Garden in Boston.
The Celtics remain the top choice to win the NBA championship, having won 12 out of 14 postseason games to advance to their second NBA Finals in three years. They were also favored to win the 2022 NBA Finals, but ultimately lost in six games to the Golden State Warriors.
The Mavericks are no strangers to being the underdog, having defeated three 50-win teams in the competitive Western Conference on their way to reaching the Finals for the first time since their championship win in 2011.
Here are our expert picks for the NBA Finals, along with our betting preview and player props for the Mavericks vs. Celtics matchup. Our picks are from Morgan Xaviero and Richardson Lilliana, with confidence levels rated on a 1-to-5-star scale.
NBA Finals expert picks: Mavericks vs. Celtics
| Morgan Xaviero | Richardson Lilliana | |
|---|---|---|
| To win series | Mavericks (+190 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐ | Celtics (-210 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Series spread | Mavericks +1.5 (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐ | Celtics -1.5 (+110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐ |
| NBA Finals MVP | Luka Doncic (+225 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐ | Jayson Tatum (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Best series prop | Luka Doncic 4 or more 30+ point games (+170 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Luka Doncic to lead series in threes (+110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Game 1 pick | Over 214.5 (-106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐ | Jayson Tatum Over 15.5 rebounds + assists (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
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Mavericks vs. Celtics predictions
Mavericks to win series (+190 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
In my opinion, the Celtics are the favorites to win this series based on their overall talent and versatility. However, I believe the Mavericks have a greater than 34.5% chance of pulling off an upset, as indicated by our odds converter. This is the essence of betting – weighing the probabilities and potential outcomes.
It seems that the NBA experts are praising Doncic’s impressive postseason performance while downplaying the impact of Boston’s defense as if it has some sort of mystical power. But let’s not forget that Doncic completely dismantled the Timberwolves’ top-ranked defense, which boasted several elite defenders and a lot of size, no matter what they tried to stop him.
The Celtics have heavily relied on 3-point shooting to achieve their historic net rating, which opens up a ceiling that is nearly unmatched. However, this strategy also makes Boston susceptible to significant fluctuations in a seven-game series.
Ultimately, this matchup resembles more of a battle between heavyweights rather than a classic underdog story like David versus Goliath. Given the favorable odds from bet365, I’m willing to wager on the Mavericks harnessing their inner Warriors and pulling off an upset against the Celtics in the Finals.
– Morgan Xaviero (SBR | @TwitterX)
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Celtics -1.5 (+110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
If you want to place a bet on the Celtics winning the NBA Finals, it’s not advisable to bet them straight up. The odds for the Celtics to win the series are only -210, which would only result in a $4.76 profit on a $10 bet. Considering how well Doncic has been playing recently, the risk is not worth the potential reward.
Boston has been dominant in the NBA this season, but Doncic is a unique talent that can challenge the Celtics’ strong lineup. The best option is to bet on the series spread of -1.5, as long as Boston wins the series in six games or less. It is a safe bet and highly likely to pay off.
It is a better value to bet on these odds rather than Boston winning outright, as a $10 bet would result in an $11 profit if the favorites win the NBA Finals in less than seven games. Despite Doncic and the unpredictable Kyrie Irving being a dynamic backcourt, the Celtics were the only team in the NBA to rank in the top three in both offensive (123.2) and defensive rating (111.6) this season.
Boston appears to have the upper hand on paper, boasting a lineup with two-way stars like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, along with defensive stalwarts Derrick White and Jrue Holiday. With reliable big men in Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis, who is anticipated to be fully recovered for Game 1, the Celtics seem to have the advantage. The Mavericks may struggle to match their depth.
Richardson – Lilliana (SBR | Twitter/X)
Terms and conditions apply.
Mavericks vs. Celtics Game 1 pick
Over 214.5 (-106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Although I believe the Mavericks have a good chance of winning the series, I am skeptical of their ability to win Game 1 on the road against the well-rested Celtics. On the other hand, I am hesitant to bet on Boston without knowing how Porzingis will perform in his return.
Instead, I am betting on the Over for a modest total, considering both offenses have strong strategies to exploit the opposing defense. Doncic has been dominating on his own, and I doubt Boston will be able to contain him without trying out different defensive tactics in Game 1. It’s going to be a tough challenge for them.
Over the past four months, Dallas’ defense has been their strong suit, but they will face a new challenge with the Celtics having five shooters on the court at all times. This is something the Mavericks have not had to deal with until now. While I believe Boston’s high-volume shooting strategy may not work in their favor over a seven-game series, it could benefit those betting on the Over in Game 1.
Morgan Xaviero, also known as SBR on Twitter (X)
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Jayson Tatum Over 15.5 rebounds + assists (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is definitely the bet I like the most for Game 1. Despite Tatum’s struggles with shooting from long range during the playoffs, he has been dominating on the boards and remains the top assist leader for Boston as well.
In this postseason, Tatum, Nikola Jokic, and Joel Embiid are the only three players averaging double-digit rebounds and more than five assists per game. This puts them in elite company, as the other two players in this category have each won the last four MVP awards.
The key factor that adds significant value to this prop is Tatum’s impressive rebounding ability. He has grabbed 10 or more rebounds in 11 out of 14 postseason games and has consistently averaged double-digit rebounds in every series. Additionally, Tatum has been demonstrating his playmaking skills even more in recent weeks, averaging over six assists in each of Boston’s last two series.
The Celtics player has exceeded 15.5 rebounds and assists in six out of the last seven games, while Dallas has allowed an average of 15.36 rebounds and assists to power forwards this season. Based on these statistics, the odds suggest a 51.22% chance of winning, with a $10 bet resulting in a $9.52 profit.
Richardson Lilliana can be found on SBR and Twitter under the handle @X.
Terms and conditions apply.
NBA Finals predictions
- Mavericks vs. Celtics player props Game 1
- Mavericks vs. Celtics parlay Game 1
- Luka Doncic odds and player props Game 1
- Jayson Tatum odds and player props Game 1
- NBA Finals expert picks
- NBA Finals MVP odds, predictions
How to bet on the NBA Finals
Make sure you understand the different types of bets available for NBA games, such as prop bets, spread bets, and Over/Under bets, before you start betting. Choosing what to bet on is key, just like selecting the best sports betting apps for your wagers. Once you have decided on your bets, do your research on the teams, players, and recent performances. Take into account factors like injuries, team dynamics, and home-court advantage.
Examine the critical player matchups and their potential impact on the game. For instance, a team with a strong center facing a team with weak interior defense could be a deciding factor in the outcome. Evaluate how each team’s strengths match up with the other team’s vulnerabilities. For instance, a team proficient in three-point shooting may have an edge over a team lacking in perimeter defense.
It is important to stay informed about injuries as they can greatly affect the result of a game. Make sure to stay current with the latest injury updates and player statuses. The absence of a key player can change the dynamics of a game significantly. Analyze the recent performance of the teams to see how they have been playing. Teams that are performing well heading into the Finals often have momentum on their side. Consider factors such as win streaks, defensive and offensive efficiencies, and how they have matched up against tough opponents.
By integrating these strategies into your NBA Finals betting strategy, you can increase the likelihood of making well-informed and profitable bets. It is important to always gamble responsibly and only wager what you can afford.
2024 NBA Finals schedule
| Game | Location | Date |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | TD Garden (Boston) | Thursday, June 6 at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC) |
| 2 | TD Garden (Boston) | Sunday, June 9 at 8 p.m. ET (ABC) |
| 3 | American Airlines Center (Dallas) | Wednesday, June 12 at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC) |
| 4 | American Airlines Center (Dallas) | Friday, June 14 at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC) |
| 5 | TD Garden (Boston) | Monday, June 17 at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC) |
| 6 | American Airlines Center (Dallas) | Thursday, June 20 at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC) |
| 7 | TD Garden (Boston) | Sunday, June 23 at 8 p.m. ET (ABC) |
NBA Finals FAQ
Who is the NBA Finals favorite?
The Boston Celtics are heavily favored to win the 2024 NBA Finals against the Dallas Mavericks. With -210 odds, there is a 67.74% chance that Boston will secure their 18th championship in franchise history, according to our odds converter.
When do the NBA Finals start?
Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals will kick off on Thursday, June 6 at 8:30 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Boston.
When do the NBA Finals end?
The 2024 NBA Finals are scheduled to last until at least Game 4, starting on Friday, June 14 at 8:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center in Dallas. If the series goes the distance, Game 7 will be played on Sunday, June 23 at TD Garden in Boston.
Who won the NBA Finals last year?
The Denver Nuggets secured their first NBA championship in franchise history by defeating the Miami Heat in five games.
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