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How the Point Differential Rule Might Affect Tuesday NBA Betting

Perry Odelia

Updated as of November 28, 2023 at 2:50 PM EST. Read time: 3 minutes and 62 seconds. Find more information on Twitter and Google News.

Jalen Brunson of the New York Knicks dribbles the ball, and we break down ESPN BET's entrance into New York.
Jalen Brunson of the New York Knicks dribbles the ball. Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images via AFP.

As the NBA In-Season Tournament concludes its group stage games this Tuesday, we are analyzing how the point differential tiebreaker may influence betting opportunities on our top NBA betting platforms.

The NBA In-Season Tournament’s group stage will come to an end on Tuesday, with 16 teams still in the running to advance to the quarterfinals. Get ready for tiebreakers, point differentials, and a plethora of exciting betting options.

I believe there are unique betting opportunities because the sportsbooks face a difficult task in adjusting every spread, total, and player prop accurately to account for the NBA In-Season Tournament tiebreakers.

One advantage we have as sports bettors is our ability to focus on specific markets, unlike sportsbooks which have to cover a wide range of events.

There are numerous chances for betting and exploiting probability disparities in Tuesday’s NBA lineup. We need to delve in and focus on specific markets to identify any discrepancies in the odds.

I suggest we examine where you should concentrate your efforts on our top sports betting apps for Tuesday’s NBA games.

Tuesday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via Caesars)

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How the Point Differential Rule Might Affect Tuesday NBA Betting

In-play wagering

Attention all in-play bettors, Tuesday night presents a great chance for you to capitalize on potential inefficiencies in the NBA In-Season Tournament. In-play betting markets are not controlled by people, but rather by sophisticated algorithms that use historical data to set the odds. This could give you an edge in your betting strategies.

For example, if the New York Knicks had a 20-point lead going into the fourth quarter against the Charlotte Hornets, the algorithm would predict that Jalen Brunson is likely to have less playing time in the final quarter and would update his player props accordingly.

Tuesday’s game will have unique substitution patterns that diverge from historical data, impacting in-play odds and creating significant probability gaps. This presents an ideal opportunity for bettors to capitalize on favorable odds.

The Knicks must improve their point differential in order to advance to the quarterfinals. Therefore, despite what the algorithm may suggest to the sportsbook about Brunson receiving reduced minutes during a blowout in the fourth quarter, the reality is that he may actually see increased playing time to assist the Knicks in achieving this goal.

This is just a singular instance of why the in-play markets may encounter the highest number of errors in Tuesday’s NBA games.

Player props

NBA player props are determined by projections that heavily depend on the anticipated playing time for each player. Just a few extra minutes on the court compared to their usual average can have a major impact on the pricing of a player’s props.

There are still 16 teams vying for a spot in the quarterfinals, with only three of them (Houston Rockets, Sacramento Kings, and Toronto Raptors) playing on Tuesday in the first game of a back-to-back. This could result in several top-tier players receiving more playing time on Tuesday.

That’s why I placed a bet on Darius Garland’s assist prop going Over in our NBA best bets. Cavaliers coach J.B. Bickerstaff has demonstrated his willingness to give Garland over 40 minutes if necessary this season, especially with the point differential tiebreaker in play on Tuesday. With Garland expected to play close to 40 minutes, there’s a discrepancy in his odds as he is typically priced as a 34-minute per game player.

Garland is just one of numerous players we could showcase in today’s lineup. There are several other players who could see an increase in playing time, but the odds, which are based more on historical data than anything else, are not recognizing this special opportunity due to the NBA In-Season Tournament tiebreakers.

Point spread

When placing bets on sports, there is always the concern that the team you wager on may not be focused on beating the spread, but rather on winning the game. However, on Tuesday, there is a greater likelihood that they are actively working towards covering the spread due to the point differentials.

For instance, the Boston Celtics are expected to win by 13.5 points, but they must secure a victory by at least 23 points over the Chicago Bulls to move forward. If it’s the final quarter and a team is nearing the necessary margin for a point differential tiebreaker, consider using that to your benefit in the live betting odds.

For example, if the current spread for the Celtics is -20.5, you could take advantage of a live line at -22.5 with positive odds. While you are aware of the Celtics’ goal to cover this spread, the algorithm is not. This unique advantage is rarely found in sports betting.

NBA betting odds pages

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Written By:
Perry Odelia
Perry Odelia is a Sports Betting Analyst at UnderscoregReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn’t watching basketball.