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Luka Doncic Odds & Player Props for Game 1: Today’s NBA Finals Prop Bets

Morgan Xaviero

Updated on June 6, 2024 at 4:18 PM EDT • Read time: 3 minutes and 53 seconds. Links to Twitter and Google News available.

Luka Doncic (77) of the Dallas Mavericks drives to the basket against Payton Pritchard (11) of the Boston Celtics, as we offer our best Luka Doncic player props and expert picks for Thursday's Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals at TD Garden in Boston.
Luka Doncic (77) of the Dallas Mavericks drives to the basket against Payton Pritchard (11) of the Boston Celtics at TD Garden on March 1, 2024 in Boston. Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images via AFP.

Luka Doncic will be the star player for the Dallas Mavericks as they face off against the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Check out our top Luka Doncic player prop bets, featuring the best NBA odds.

If there were any doubts about who the best basketball player is, Luka Doncic put them to rest in the Western Conference Finals by dominating the Minnesota Timberwolves’ top-ranked defense in a gentleman’s sweep.

In Game 1 of the NBA Finals tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC, he will target the Boston Celtics. The Celtics are favored by 6.5 points to win at TD Garden and are the frontrunners in the NBA championship odds to secure their first title since 2008.

As he makes his Finals debut, Doncic has the second-best odds of winning the NBA Finals MVP and is expected to lead the series in points, assists, and 3-pointers. Can Doncic’s impressive performance in Game 1 lead to a dominant showing for the talented Slovenian?

Luka Doncic odds, player props for Game 1

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Luka Doncic Over 31.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We have chosen a straightforward points prop as our top bet for Game 1. When you support a player as dominant as Doncic, there is no need to complicate things in order to make a profit.

This bet might have been considered more risky a few weeks ago when Doncic was still recovering from a knee injury he sustained in Round 1. Despite not being fully healed even with an additional week off, he appeared to be in top form in the last round as he dominated the Timberwolves’ tough defense, which had previously limited three-time MVP Nikola Jokic in Round 2. Doncic scored 32 points or more in four out of five games in the series.

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I thought about combining this with his assists to reach a total of 40.5, similar to what Richardson Lilliana did in the Mavericks vs. Celtics player props. However, I have doubts that he will have as many easy passing opportunities against the Celtics. They excel at switching on defense and rely on their numerous All-Defensive caliber perimeter defenders to handle scorers one-on-one.

While it may seem like a good strategy, Doncic’s incredible ball-handling skills have consistently outplayed his opponents in one-on-one situations throughout the playoffs. The Celtics will likely have to adjust their defensive strategy and throw unconventional looks at him late in the game, but not before he surpasses this total for the fifth time in six games.

Caesars offers the best odds at -111.

Check out Richardson Lilliana’s Mavericks vs. Celtics parlay for additional insights on Doncic.

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Luka Doncic Over 1.5 steals ⭐⭐⭐⭐

During the conference finals, we observed that Doncic displayed possibly the best defensive effort of his career. We are now seeing incredible value in expecting that effort to continue in Game 1.

The Mavericks star not only led his team in scoring during the Western Conference Finals, but he also recorded 11 steals, which was more than double the amount of any of his teammates. He exceeded this mark in three out of five games in the series and has now achieved multiple steals in eight of his last 11 games.

Why are the odds at +145 from bet365 for him to repeat his performance on Thursday? According to our odds converter, this implies a 40.82% chance of success and pays out $14.50 on a $10 bet. I’m definitely taking that bet.

Top odds: +145 at bet365

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Luka Doncic 1Q scoring leader ⭐⭐⭐

Betting on first-quarter scoring props is always a gamble, but it’s difficult to resist the tempting +150 odds offered by DraftKings. These odds suggest that there is only a 40% chance that Doncic will be the leading scorer in the first 12 minutes.

In the Mavericks’ Game 5 victory over the T-Wolves, he ignited the team by scoring 20 points in the first quarter, making 8 out of 11 shots and outscoring Minnesota single-handedly. This impressive performance came after a 10-point first quarter in Game 4, and he has been averaging 9.6 points in the first quarter throughout the postseason.

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With Doncic being favored to lead all scorers in the game at -145, I believe there is great value in betting on him to be the top scorer in the first quarter. This bet offers more than double the profit compared to a full-game scoring leader bet.

Top odds: +150 at FanDuel

Luka Doncic playoff stats in 2024

Opponent (round)PPGRPGAPG3PM
Minnesota Timberwolves (WCF)32.49.68.24.6
Oklahoma City Thunder (2nd)24.710.58.73.0
Los Angeles Clippers (1st)29.88.89.52.7

Mavericks vs. Celtics Game 1 odds

NBA Finals predictions

How to watch Mavericks vs. Celtics in Game 1 of 2024 NBA Finals

  • When: Thursday, June 6
  • Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: TD Garden (Boston)
  • How to watch: ABC
  • Favorite: Celtics -6.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Luka Doncic’s player props selections were made on Wednesday at 1:45 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Morgan Xaviero
Morgan Xaviero is a publishing editor and lead writer for Underscoreg Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, “C-Jax” has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Underscoreg Review team. He’s a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels’ championship run through the NCAA men’s basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he’s played a key role in Underscoreg Review’s coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he’s cashed some big bets over the years — including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) — he’s still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed “process over results” bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He’s written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn’t forgiven his “inside source” for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.